Discussion in 'Beer News' started by dauss, Mar 18, 2013.
I guess the "this growth cant continue" posts from the last year were all wrong.
Of course, eventually they will be right, but it seems to be going the other direction for now.
My lazy butt isn't going to look up those posts, but I imagine most of them included the qualifying time period of "forever" rather than "for another year."
Who cares how long it grows for... so long as it grows, I'm happy for everybody involved.
Well, I wouldnt be mocking the ones that used "forever" because those are clearly right. And I remember some that said we would never see 12% again.
Well those people were clearly bozos!
Good to hear.
The growth is good and will continue, for a while. Someday it will slow, due to market saturation, or ingredient shortages.
I see that venture capital is smelling around again. Shades of the late 90s.
More and more you read of pro brewers saying they have reservations. New breweries based on super hoppy beers made with hops they can't get. Lafler has reservations.
There are also places opening in MI with beer that is not so good. In the 90s you had time to get your act together in Michigan. Not anymore, people will just go back to their favorite brewery, or to the multitap across the street. A well known guy recently said to me, it you aren't making good beer out of the box in Michigan, you are in trouble.
I couldn't agree with you more. If you wanna open a brewpub in MI, you better have your recipes perfected.
One should also get those dialed in ASAP on a commercial system. You have to learn some new procedures, and how that will impact the beer flavor. The mash extraction and hop utilization will be different and the beer will taste different until you dial it in. I have had a couple of recipes go from 10 gallon to 7 barrel, and they were similar but different.
I hope that percentage growth this year is two percent higher than dollar growth to even that out.
Why do you think they should be even?
I'm not surprised there was significant dollar growth especially given the price jump beer has seen in recent years.
The market is going to get much more competitive for small and mid-sized breweries, especially since so many more breweries are creating great beer these days. Great beer is getting easier and easier to find.
The statistic found by the Boston Beer Company, that half of beer drinkers have at least tried craft beer is good news for the category as a whole going forward. With such a broad base to build off of, I think it's safe to assume growth figures similar to these for the forseeable future at the very least. All it takes is for the hardcore craft beer drinkers to keep drinking and for the casual drinkers to increase the amount of craft beer in their repertoire slightly, as well as have new drinkers buy into the category. I'd wait for there to be a definitive reduction in craft beer sales before making predictions about the category's untimely demise.
It means craft beer is getting more expensive. The increase from in per-volume price from 2011 to 2012 was 1.57%. The good news is that this number doesn't actually outpace inflation--depending on which metric you use and the time period you use, it may even represent a decrease in price since inflation during this time was on the order of 1.5-2.5%.
2011: $8.7 billion in sales of 11.47 million barrels = $75.85/bbl
2012: $10.2 billion in sales of 13.24 million barrels = $77.04/bbl
There is that. You also have to consider the growth of IPA and other beers (BA for example) that command a premium.
For a car company, selling more of the Premium Brand (or SUV) will bring more revenue growth for a small increase in sales than the major brand's same growth.
Or it could be that BMC drinkers are going from Bud to Busch!
stop price gouging
but yeah, I am sick of price creep across the board- brewers, distributors, retailers, and especially bars.
I'd drink more if it cost less! Knock it off.
I'm sick of it too, but it looks like the average price per barrel didn't increase once you correct for inflation.
I wonder what the price-per-barrel would look like as a function of brewery size... Is the volume of low-priced BBC/SA, SN, and NB sales overwhelming any price increases in the stuff BAs get excited over...?
Aren't those figures off by a factor of ten? i.e., the decimal point should be moved to the right one place in the barrel price.
(Rounding off) $10 billion in sales of 13 million barrels would equal well over $700/bbl. (and so obviously that's a retail price figure).
(At least, that's how I figure it- granted, my last "arithmetic class" was in the era before the cheap electronic calculator and we weren't allowed to use them, anyway).
Well at least I did them both wrong.
1-1000 bbl $596
10001-7500 bbl $360
7501-50k bbl $263
50k+ bbl $300
That is "average revenue from sales of beer per barrel" by size of production brewery. 2011. Interestingly, from the same survey in 2009 it was much more flat. The same trend existed but much less extreme.
Between 2009 and 2011, the ability for a very small brewery to survive changed dramatically. There has been a paradigm shift in the last 4 years.
Imagine the cries of "We Knew it! Gouging!" if it'd jumped from $75 in '11 to $770 in '12.
I don't know, I read articles from the early '80's and am reminded that those first "micro breweries" were charging a $1/bottle retail and then see Sierra Nevada Pale Ale still available for $12-13 a twelve-pack and think, "Hey, that's not too bad." Especially considering the minimum wage in 1980 was $3.10 and a gallon of gas had just broken through the $1 mark (and so about the same prices as a SNPA then).
But not to stay. It went back down, because in the late 80s Georgia it was generally 75 to 90 cents. But, on the other hand, craft beer didnt exist at all in late 80s Georgia.
Separate names with a comma.