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How much will the trade value of Bolt Cutter drop once it gets into distibution?

Discussion in 'Beer Trading Talk & Help' started by ChadQuest, Nov 17, 2012.

  1. maybe you're kidding but if not, that is not correct.
     
  2. Etan

    Etan Champion (755) Wisconsin Jul 11, 2011

    I thought my wording was enough to tip people off, but I guess not...
     
  3. lurchingbeast

    lurchingbeast Initiate (0) Illinois Feb 19, 2009

    10,000 bottles are never released to one market. King Henry was also released to other major markets (NYC, etc). If Chicagoland saw 6000 bottles I would be surprised. Whatever it was, it was not enough.

    My point was most brewery only releases in other regions seem to come close to satisfying the demand in that region, whereas GI and Founders releases do not.

    Beatification was a huge release. Ask what some people landed with those. Demand for Beat was satisfied well before they ran out of bottles. It's conjecture, but I would guarantee 12,000 bottles of King Henry would sell out in 1/3 the time Beatification did if it were a brewery only release.
     
    dvelcich and ChadQuest like this.
  4. MordorMongo

    MordorMongo Initiate (0) Jul 19, 2009

    If 10,000 people each get one bottle of one beer and 1,000 people each get 10 bottles of another beer, do you really think they will trade equally?! (Assuming cost and taste are comparable)

    This is the part that people seem not to grasp.
     
    je1129, CWBlues, FUNKPhD and 8 others like this.
  5. the argument about how quickly KH would've sold out has been done and i don't think it's a very productive conversation.

    beat trades very reasonably now. i don't know what it was like at the release but if we're comparing the two then king henry should be trading $4$ with good brewery only stuff now like beat does. i don't know beat bottle counts but i know it's less than KH.

    i don't understand the argument that beat sitting at the brewery for a few weeks hurts its value. why does anything other than bottle count, taste, and price effect trade value? no matter how the bottles are distributed, there were 12,000 bottles of king henry. it should trade accordingly. KH should be 1:1 with ffac, beat, etc, but when an offer like that is made it's mocked. why do KH/bcbvs trade for over 2:1 dollarwise for bottles that have 1/6th or less the bottle count? that is the midwest shelf whale effect.
     
    SubpoenaDeuces likes this.
  6. if 10,000 people got 1 beer i wouldn't expect any of it to trade. but if 5,000 people got 2 beers and 1,000 people got 10, they taste equally good and cost the same, then why shouldn't they go 1:1? the only reason is because the 10,000 seem to think their struggles to acquire the beer should be reflected in the trade value. i think that is odd.
     
  7. lurchingbeast

    lurchingbeast Initiate (0) Illinois Feb 19, 2009

    Because people don't have as much KH, BCBVS, CBS as other people have Beat, FfaC, etc. That is much more important than bottle count and price.

    Beatification was also around 12000.
     
    Brew33 likes this.
  8. MordorMongo

    MordorMongo Initiate (0) Jul 19, 2009

    No, not at all, the reason is because people with 9 to spare will trade for less that people with 1 to spare. Equal requires equality. When people have more they will accept less as a general rule, therefore the people with only one hold out for something they REALLY want vs someone with 9 taking more liberties since they have more.
     
  9. ChadQuest

    ChadQuest Initiate (0) Illinois Mar 4, 2009

    Of course, they would sell out in the time it takes me to drive 64 miles.
     
  10. FTowne

    FTowne Initiate (0) Missouri Jan 27, 2012

    So what you are all saying is that it If I have access to a limited (3,000 bottle count) BA Barleywine, I can trade it for whales,bro?
     
  11. i just don't understand this argument. you guys are suggesting that because someone had the option to get a case that the beer is worth less than it's dollar amount.

    even in these scenarios we're only considering beers like beat. what about beers like BA speedway, bb batch 9k, etc? there are several beers i can think of off the top of my head that are double the price, 1/8th the bottle count, low bottle limit, and didn't last long that are generally expected to go 1:1 for kh/bcbvs. it defies all logic except the logic of the midwest shelf whale, the very same logic you guys are using to try to prove your point. unfortunately it doesn't make sense to me.
     
  12. MordorMongo

    MordorMongo Initiate (0) Jul 19, 2009

    So if you have 12 of something you wouldn't be more likely to let one go a little easier than if you were down to your last one? How does it NOT make sense?

    And no one is saying it is worth less than it's dollar amount, not at all.....just saying it is relatively worth less due to the fact people are more likely to have extras to trade.
     
  13. sarro

    sarro Savant (345) Michigan May 12, 2009

    Is there a "midwest shelf whale" not made by Goose Island?

    Demand seems to trump all in terms of trading these days.
     
  14. lurchingbeast

    lurchingbeast Initiate (0) Illinois Feb 19, 2009

    CBS. And I agree with you.
     
  15. ok, i guess it does make sense but i think it's shitty and predatory. if my last beat is worth so much to me that i'd want someone to triple the value in comparable beer then i should probably just drink it myself. i understand that the issue arises when people are willing to make the huge offers to get people to give up their few king henrys, so it's not just people in the midwest hoarding beers and trying to drive up the value. i just don't think it's very nice to ask the inflated market value for your beer when you paid 15 dollars for it and someone offers another great beer that cost 15 dollars with the same or lower bottle count is what it comes down to. maybe i would feel differently if i had a beer that demands more than it's cost though.

    also just want to say that i'm not accusing you of being an asshole, i know you're well known for your generosity
     
  16. GraniteSkunk

    GraniteSkunk Savant (375) Illinois Apr 17, 2007

    We will see about as much Bolt Cutter as we saw of CBS around here. There was plenty of Better Half and Frangelic around here, but there will be less than a case of Bolt Cutter per store available around here
     
  17. ChadQuest

    ChadQuest Initiate (0) Illinois Mar 4, 2009

    That is bad news around here
     
    LambicKing and MrKennedy like this.
  18. maximum12

    maximum12 Champion (755) Minnesota Jan 21, 2008

    Well, the masses would say you're not wrong, but wildly wrong.

    I thought it was very good but nothing too special, but our opinion is in the distinct minority on CBS.
     
  19. Cheers to the man who can simplify the argument!

    To me beer and this website are a function of community- NOT economy.

    All else be damned... If you love beer you should share it freely, and consider it an honor to be in a position to spread the love.
    NOT pat yourself on the back for flipping $10 worth of good beer for $50 of equally good beer.
     
    cavedave, cfh64 and FTowne like this.
  20. lurchingbeast

    lurchingbeast Initiate (0) Illinois Feb 19, 2009

    Whenever you want to trade an 09 Black Tuesday for an Upland Kiwi Lambic, let me know. Kiwi was $25, and had a far lower bottle count. Not taking this deal is predatory.

    Your point about your 'last Beatification' doesn't fit. 99% of us ddidnt have a chance to grab unlimited King Henry, CBS, etc. Most of us got less of those than the initial allotment of Beatification.

    *note* I'm only using Beatification as an example sits it fits number wise. Bay area traders are generous people.
     
    llckeller03 likes this.
  21. sub 1k bottle count beers are a little different than 10,000+

    if i had an 09 BT to trade i would try to find a comparably rare bottle i really wanted and go 1:1
     
  22. lurchingbeast

    lurchingbeast Initiate (0) Illinois Feb 19, 2009

    I think 09 BT had 1200 or so. You could also buy as many allocations as your heart desired in the month leading up to the releases. Meanwhile, Kiwi Lambic is around 300 bottles and was a 2 bottle limit.

    with your argument, this trade should work. In practice, it obviously does not.
     
  23. apocalypsezombie

    apocalypsezombie Initiate (0) May 12, 2012

    Speaking of low bottle count/brewery only beers being the only beers that should trade well, I'm still willing to move my 600 count/brewery only Deesko! for a 1200 bottle count/sold at 2 places T-25 or a 2700 bottle count BA Speedway :)
     
    llckeller03 and lurchingbeast like this.
  24. 1000 isnt a lot

    12,000 is

    this is a pointless conversation
     
  25. apocalypsezombie

    apocalypsezombie Initiate (0) May 12, 2012

    That really isn't a pointless conversation. Founders is sought after by Non-BA's. People who have never heard of the concept of beer trading or have ever seen this site are seeking out this beer. In addition, those 12,000 bottles are being heavily distributed. They'll be far too spread out to just walk into a store and grab one off the shelf.
     
  26. cfh64

    cfh64 Advocate (730) Texas Aug 16, 2005

    Holy fuckballs! Really guys? I recognize many of you, have chatted with a few and traded with a few. What bothers me is I know many of you are generous and stand up BA's yet here you are arguing about numbers, rarity, ratings, etc. Many of you bitch about the way things "used to be" when we traded beers we wanted for other beers we wanted regardess of numbers or ratings. You bitch about and mock "noobs" for asking too much. What kind of standard and/or example are you setting?

    For fucks sake, its beer, a liquid in a bottle.
     
  27. I would think that somebody with Michele Foucault as their avatar might be a bit more crafty with their Internet wordplay.
     
    Kuemmelbrau, Etan and woosterbill like this.
  28. lurchingbeast

    lurchingbeast Initiate (0) Illinois Feb 19, 2009

    You're right, I just can't stand the ignorance towards the difficulty of midwest releases. I'm fortunate enough to not even have to deal with "worth" for many releases thanks to generous regular trade partners. I'd like to think they feel the same way about "midwest shelf walez"
     
  29. Anyone else eating popcorn and watching this thread as I am?
     
  30. ChadQuest

    ChadQuest Initiate (0) Illinois Mar 4, 2009

    Last shelf release i only had to get to the store at 4am to get bottles, finally beat the truck chasers.
     
  31. MordorMongo

    MordorMongo Initiate (0) Jul 19, 2009

    Agree entirely and was caught up in trying to make logic of something illogical. I was never trying to imply a difference in $ or anything, just a difference in perception of what something "should" pull vs what it "does" pull. And yes, that perception is one of the biggest issues that has degraded this "community", I personally wish it would go away and don't consider it when swapping boxes with trade partners at all....sadly though I don't think it's going anywhere anytime soon.
     
    cfh64 and FTowne like this.
  32. richardflyr

    richardflyr Savant (400) Virginia Jul 28, 2009

    I personally think the quality of the beer vastly outweighs the "rarity" or more specifically the bottle count available. Bottle count is handy to know how likely it is to find someone with an over abundance of a specific beer, but doesn't speak directly to what it will trade for on the "open market."

    Yes, a lot of us have regular trading partners, but that is more akin to sharing a good brew with a buddy more than a trade. Almot all the beers I have in my celler I am willing to share, but not all of my beers are game to trade.

    For me personally, when it comes to trading a beer, my first question is "how many can I part with comfortably?". Those are generally $4$ beers. Anything "uncomfortable" that I want to drink/share myself, I could be talked out of, but it would take some convincing.

    With beers where you may get one, maybe two if you are persistent/lucky (Midwest shelf wales), I would probably just prefer to drink them instead of trade them. Which reduces the amount available on the open market.
     
  33. stxSS07

    stxSS07 Initiate (0) Illinois Nov 23, 2010

    Hey guys I can do a cartwheel.
     
    yamar68, FUNKPhD, ChadQuest and 4 others like this.
  34. Where's the "love" button? Tee-he-he...
     
  35. dvelcich

    dvelcich Savant (340) Illinois Feb 6, 2008

    Because you're missing a main point... Availability. You understand how this works. I know you do. I'm not buying the "bury my head in the sand" type arguments you're throwing at us. Just because you don't like one of the aspects of what makes up the trade value of a beer doesn't mean it ceases to exist.

    Let's go ahead and discuss this right here. What makes up the trade value of a beer? I like your three points with my one added. So:

    Availability- The ease with which a person can acquire enough bottles of a beer to comfortably trade some away.

    Bottle Count- The overall number of bottles produced.

    Reviews/Taste- How good the beer is.

    Price- Cost per bottle.

    Can anyone think of anything else that legitimately determines the value of a beer?

    PS: I understand value can't be quantified. This is just a discussion of what goes through someone's head when they are thinking of trading a beer.
     
    drewba likes this.
  36. DavidEddie

    DavidEddie Savant (280) Illinois Jul 12, 2006

    It's going to be worth... there's no word to describe it. Schmooblydong? That's not it, but it's close. Let--let me try and put it in terms you can understand. Imagine being high at a Depeche Mode concert while two dudes take you on in a sun-baked porta-john.
     
    apocalypsezombie likes this.
  37. i would say that bottle count is a good way to measure availability. in any case any distributed beer is inarguably significantly more available than any 1200 bottle brewery only release. i find the argument that since fewer people have access to it it's easier to trade for to be pretty bizarre but it's ok you guys win you can call off the dogs. i'll have nightmares about people from illinois yelling at me tonight
     
  38. dvelcich

    dvelcich Savant (340) Illinois Feb 6, 2008

     
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  39. harrymel

    harrymel Initiate (0) Washington Dec 15, 2010

    Living on the west coast is generally awesome.
     
  40. Ungertaker

    Ungertaker Savant (460) Minnesota Apr 30, 2010

    To each their own, but I don't know if I want a beer that is worth two dudes taking me on in a porta-john.
     
    FUNKPhD, minnesotaryan and mnbearsfan like this.

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