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Market Collapse

Discussion in 'Beer Talk' started by mcaulifww, Sep 20, 2012.

  1. mcaulifww

    mcaulifww Initiate (0) Virginia Aug 18, 2011

    So with news of the intense growth of the craft industry (not sure it's really news. It's been happening for some time now) does anyone get a sense of any possible negative outcomes for the industry as a whole. Market saturation? Nanos-Micros dominated by a handful of big crafts? I think all of these are happing in some form or another, but do you think a negative turn based on the epic inflation is in the making. I know there will always be winners and losers regardless, but just curious as to the community's thoughts.

    Edit: Maybe Market Collapse is a bad title for this thread
  2. chrfrancis

    chrfrancis Disciple (55) Texas Jun 13, 2009

    I think it will most likely lead to more limited releases and more 'chase' beers.
  3. My thoughts [and to the OP - please don't take them personally - they are not intended to be of a personal nature].

    How unfortunate that due to all of the economic bad news of the past few years and the fragile nature of the 'global economy' one of the things people think about when something is successful is when is it going to crash. How unfortunate that some of us have been conditioned to think pessimistically rather than optimistically.

    The craft beer market will continue to flourish as long as there are passionate brewers out there who care as much about the product they are sending into the market as being successful and making a profit. And from what I understand about many of the craft brewers out there, there's plenty of passion. Unless I am misguided, the number of money grubbing, just push the product down peoples' throats, make as much as possible in as little time as possible, craft brewers are few and far between.

    kansascitytrader likes this.
  4. mcaulifww

    mcaulifww Initiate (0) Virginia Aug 18, 2011

    I totally hear you. And I don't take any offense to your statement. I personally am pumped for all the passion and the boom the industry is experiencing. I think it's fantastic that the industry is doing so well considering the economy as a whole. I believe that this industry is different than most luxury product industries as the growth has shown. I think that the market will always do well, thanks to passionate brewers, but I wonder if all of the passionate brewers starting fledgling breweries right now or in the next few years will experience the same.

    In a nutshell, I think it's an excellent time for Craft beer, but not for all the aspiring brewers
  5. stupac2

    stupac2 Initiate (0) California Feb 22, 2011

    No one knows.

    Also, wtf does, "I think all of these are happing in some form or another, but do you think a negative turn based on the epic inflation is in the making." What inflation?
  6. mcaulifww

    mcaulifww Initiate (0) Virginia Aug 18, 2011

    Inflation as in, The large growth experienced by bigger craft breweries, the large amount of start ups, and the growth of craft in the beer industry as a whole. Sorry if the term was confusing
  7. I wondered about the inflation comment too, but largely ignored it. And as well as the start ups and expansions, there are breweries that fail and close on a regular basis.
  8. Pahn

    Pahn Advocate (695) New York Dec 2, 2009

    most successful breweries can't even meet demand. there's lots of room for growth left. some breweries will fail, but it would take an external economic disaster for "the beer market to crash."
  9. leedorham

    leedorham Champion (835) Washington Apr 27, 2006

    There are over 5,000 wineries in the United States and maybe 2,000 breweries. Just sayin.
  10. Homebrew42

    Homebrew42 Savant (425) New York Dec 20, 2006

    From your perspective there may be this massive "epic" inflation, but the reality is that craft beer is still only 5% of the total market share. It's a blip on the beer map.
  11. Is it a bubble? Will it burst? Will it eventually account for the majority of our GDP? I'm hoping this bubble is filled with delicious craft beer, and when it bursts, we all drown in that delicious craft beer, in a craft beer flood of biblical proportions.
    Duff27 and Beerontwowheels like this.
  12. mattbk

    mattbk Savant (390) New York Dec 12, 2011

    instead of discussing this "bubble" ad nauseam, can we discuss what beer we'd like in the bubble? +1 for Heady Topper.
  13. Mavajo

    Mavajo Advocate (550) Georgia Feb 10, 2007

    "What goes up must come down."

    I think that saying was around long before the economic slump of the last few years. "Nothing lasts forever." There's another one for you.
  14. You are correct. But there are exceptions. But it has already happened once to craft beer and with growth continuing in this latest incarnation, IMHO it's a bit premature to start thinking about when it will come down.
  15. IceAce

    IceAce Advocate (560) California Jan 8, 2004

    ...and one more, "Chicken Little has yet to be correct".
  16. Mavajo

    Mavajo Advocate (550) Georgia Feb 10, 2007

    I Googled. No results. You lose.
  17. stupac2

    stupac2 Initiate (0) California Feb 22, 2011

    That's not what inflation means. Regardless, why are so many people so insistent on seeing this as a bubble? Does Starbuck's meteoric rise over the past few decades imply a coffee bubble? Growth != bubble.

    Could it be a bubble? Sure, it could be a temporary change in consumer preference that will change back. But the fact that we hit the worst economic collapse since the great depression and that didn't stop the growth at all makes me think that this is actually a real change in preferences. Which makes sense, because Americans are starting to prefer craft/artisanal products of all kinds. You'd expect things like beer, wine, and spirits to be a part of that.
    Duff27 likes this.
  18. mcaulifww

    mcaulifww Initiate (0) Virginia Aug 18, 2011

    I realize inflation was the wrong term.

    Starbucks Meteoric rise. They're struggling with the advent of keurig.

    I think your point that we hit recession and the craft market was still growing is important. I don't think is Macro-economic. It's Micro-economic within the beer industry
  19. Azzy

    Azzy Savant (290) Texas Jul 16, 2012

    I see a large number of the craft brewers who opened up to try and make profit and have little to no knowledge about brewing to be closing. Maybe in 5-10 years well see this growth stop and start on a decline. The market will determine what breweries stay afloat and which close its doors.
    mcaulifww likes this.
  20. Lots of little guys opening up. They all will not make it. The big craft breweries are expanding like crazy, or even building new breweries. The established ones will be taking a large part of the pie.

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