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Why do Bruery beers trade at discount to $4$?

Discussion in 'Beer Trading Talk & Help' started by concealed, Jan 27, 2014.

  1. Large amount produced? On average higher than normal other bottle prices? Higher incomes in California? Curious as to theories, apologize if this has been covered before.
  2. pmoney

    pmoney Advocate (595) Illinois Apr 15, 2011

    In my own opinion (and I think many BAs would agree), many Bruery beers are overly sweet and boozy (speaking of the stouts obviously) and carry a hefty price tag.

    It's a simple market value issue - if people aren't willing to trade $4$ it's because they place a lower value on said beers. That's why are people willing to trade $100 worth of great beer for an $8 VSB but not willing to trade $35 worth of beer for a Black Tuesday.
  3. brian4beer

    brian4beer Savant (330) Indiana Jan 27, 2013

    supply and demand

    If you follow the FT forums there are way more FT: Bruery beers than there are ISO:Bruery beers. There are obvious exceptions (Winefication) but generally that is the issue. That and they are very expensive. Same thing goes with the flavor of the week FFF BA experiment.
    mythaeus and Jones153 like this.
  4. pmoney

    pmoney Advocate (595) Illinois Apr 15, 2011

    Yes and no. Since this conversation usually involves Midwest and Cali BAs, lets use BCBCS and BT as an example.

    I don't know what the exact production numbers are for BCBCS and BT, but I can't imagine there was less BCBCS produced this year than BT. Would most BAs trade 6 BCBCS bottles for 1 BT (approximately $4$)? I doubt it.

    I think it's more an issue of quality and price.

    EDIT: Now that you added to your post, I'd like to add that I agree with what you are saying, but with my example in mind, I think there have probably been as many "FT: BCBCS" posts as "FT: BT". But surely less "ISO: BT" posts than "ISO: BCBCS". This further supports the fact that it's not just about production numbers in terms of demand, but rather about desirability (price and taste) in terms of demand.
    concealed likes this.
  5. smaller format bottles have some intrinsic marginal value, due to the fact that you don't have to open them all at once. So 4-5 BCBCS may be a more fair comp.
  6. pmoney

    pmoney Advocate (595) Illinois Apr 15, 2011

    But the whole topic is about $4$, right? Your original question was why Bruery beers trade under $4$.
  7. bcm75

    bcm75 Advocate (575) Illinois Mar 23, 2013

    I'm in the Bruery RS, so obviously I like their product, but I'd rather have six BCBCS than a single BT or CR. That stuff is simply amazing this year.
  8. Could also be the fact that Reserve and Hoarders Society beers are sold to members at a 15% and 20% discount respectively. Or do you mean at discount to $4$ with the society discount already factored in?
    BrettHead likes this.
  9. kscaldef

    kscaldef Advocate (680) Oregon Jun 11, 2010

    IMO:

    a) The beers are overpriced relative to the market to start.

    b) "You just bought that on the internet. I had to walk uphill both ways in -20F for 8 hours."

    c) The existence of a club / society means that the beers are more widely disbursed than a normal "brewery only" release. Many tasting groups throughout the country have a token Bruery RS member and that's good enough.
  10. Hoarders trades higher, but the RS stuff isn't that limited and you can usually get a fair amount of bottles. I have my membership split 5 ways, but 6 Chocolate Rains, it'll trade lower than you might think.
  11. There are two dominant philosophies to trading. The first would be matching beers of similar rarity/exclusivity along with matching or building up to retail costs ($4$) on both sides of the trade. The second philosophy attempts to provide the trader with what the market will bear for his/her beer. There seems to be more of the latter kind of trader these days. The key is finding someone who shares your philosophy.
  12. Because it's not limited to a single region. Not when you can have someone pick it up for you in exchange for some midwest shelf beer when you sign up to RS and get a trustee.

    RS usually is opened for a couple of weeks at the end of the year, so the cost of admission is not that hard to get into this exclusive club. So you really have to try harder in enticing out of SoCal region folks to want it. Which most already are RS members anyway.

    That and a lot of SoCal traders are stupid and trade away the farm for a single bottle of super rare limited run bottles from smaller breweries.
    OneBeertoRTA, vurt and heatwaves like this.
  13. Stupid or have more disposable income? One of my original points.
  14. I don't think the disposable income comes into play. But it sure brings down the quality of trades to be expected when they're out there throwing off the curve for the rest of us.
  15. MarcWP

    MarcWP Savant (425) Arizona Dec 2, 2012

    Bruery beers are priced high and many who are a part of the Hoarders Society like to get them for trade bait. Problem is BT,CR,WC aren't whales anymore so people are willing to trade under $ value. So now you see the newbies getting the whale treatment like MW, Wineification and such. And there is always something new at the Bruery that people want to get there hands on. But it almost always boils down to hype as they never seem to deliver for all the hype they get. Not to mention, they don't deliver on the price tag either.
  16. evilcatfish

    evilcatfish Advocate (505) Missouri May 11, 2012

    I like most all of the beers I've had from The Bruery. That's said, I will never again be trading anything serious for any of their beers. I gave up some decent stuff for Bruery items at one point, and I regret it
    DangleBerries likes this.
  17. Stevedore

    Stevedore Champion (845) Wisconsin Nov 16, 2012

    My take is that the market will not bear the full $4$ asking price that would be fair by most peoples' standards. In addition to increasing supply over the last few years (at least, I believe so?), a lot of people on BA don't seem to want to pay the full price for the likes of BT, CT, WC.. especially if they have had it before- so the California BAs who picked them up have to choose between either drinking it themselves or discounting it. And that's what's happening. My take anyway, and I'm sure it's sort of similar to what has been said above.
  18. TequilaSauer

    TequilaSauer Savant (370) Florida Dec 31, 2006

    I have 2 Hoarders trading partners and I always deal 1 beer of equal rarity plus good adds to get $4$ with them. For Mocha Wednesday, I gave him 2 MBCPs and a growler of Hop Gun. We were both happy.
  19. DimensionX

    DimensionX Savant (325) Oregon Oct 1, 2010

    Too much $$ + mostly not that great = low demand

    Simple economics, only thrown off because some people are tickers and need to try everything once.
    4DAloveofSTOUT likes this.
  20. I don't get all the hate. I just joined the RS so clearly I wouldn't lol. I'm not a fan of Black Tuesday by itself, but they make good sours and CR is great. Pumped for Grey Monday. I'm thinking a big reason is that ppl started joining for trade bait and now too many people did it. I'm hoping that more ppl join who actually want the beer. I think they get a bad rap for no reason. CR at $35 a bottle is a bit steep, but it's a 19% BA stout aged with expensive ingredients. No one would blink an eye at paying $50 for some shit version of BADL for $50. The BVDL obviously not counting. But like moscatel for $50, hmm...
    leprakhan, Paccamacca and Retsinis like this.
  21. I mentioned this in the Prop thread, but I think it basically comes down to The Bruery being much more willing to sell their limited beers for what they would sell for in an auction/bidding situation.

    The Alchemist sells Heady Topper for $3 a can - that's a joke compared to what they would sell for if eBay allowed beer sales.

    BCBS Proprieters sold for $20-$25 a bottle and had people lining up all night. They could have sold it for $60-$75 and still probably sold it all in one day. BCBCS selling for $20 - $27 per 4 pack was similarly underpriced - they could have sold it for $40 / 4 pack and it still would have sold very very quickly. (granted, this gets into retailers following suggested pricing from GI)

    The Bruery, though, comes much closer to maxing out their values when they set their prices. so this is actually reflected in trade scenarios, and why you see Chocolate Rain trading 1:1 with more limited $20 bottles. Also, things like Black Tuesday and Chocolate Rain have come out enough times (like Hunaphu) that they don't trade for as much as one time releases
  22. While the big ABV beers are on the higher end of the pricing spectrum, their sours are better than most and priced just right for me. A 750ml sour for 15.99 after discount works for me.
    Justinsosmart likes this.
  23. rxeight

    rxeight Initiate (0) Illinois Feb 5, 2012

    Because the are crazy over priced.
    BeerKangaroo likes this.
  24. heatwaves

    heatwaves Savant (285) California Oct 17, 2009

    Volume. Plain and simple. For people who play the "over priced" card, Mocha Wednesday ($32-$40) is trading just fine. As did BT ($30) the first couple years it came out. The reality is that when there are 1500-2000 Reserve Society members all with sizeable allocations and 1200-1400 Hoarders with double those allocations, it drives the trade value down because there is just so much of everything. Throw in the contributing factors that there are tons of out-of-state Society members and an online public BT sale, and the fact remains that obtaining most Bruery beers is not that difficult.

    What's the most sought after Bruery beer right now? Winefication? That has the lowest volume of production and all HS received the same amount. It's not because it's lower priced or is better tasting necessarily. All of the once highly sought after beers -- Grey Monday, Chocolate Rain, BT, and perhaps Bottleworks and Wanderer -- have recently been available in much higher bottle counts.

    What do you think would happen to any other popular brewey's barrel aged beers if they were available to 2000 people at 4 bottles a piece, and another 1400 people at 8 bottles each? People will still trade for them, but they know there are so many bottles out there and so many people who have them.

    If the "societies" had half as many members, were CA only, and had half as many allocations, the trade value would radically increase. (Not recommending this, just using it to illustrate).
  25. heatwaves

    heatwaves Savant (285) California Oct 17, 2009

    Even if you had the same wonderful quality BADL variants at $50 a bottle, but they were suddenly available to 15,000+ people you'd see the trade value immediately decrease, then decrease again a couple years later as more and more people have had it.
    CarolinaKevin likes this.
  26. I thought the number in HS was in the few hundreds? I've seen people speculate around 300-400.
  27. 15,000? Are you trying to tell me there's 90,000 bottles of chocolate rain? With each RS member getting 2 and being able to purchase 4 more, that sounds a little high. What do I know
  28. I give The Bruery tons of credit for maximizing their profits through both "societies" and pumping out as much beer as they can muster. Sure some of their bottles miss the mark, but they have made some great beer in their days! I still can't get Sour in the Rye with Peaches out of my head:( Plus Black Tuesday is still awesome, it's just not "Rare" anymore....
  29. heatwaves

    heatwaves Savant (285) California Oct 17, 2009

    I can't remember the thread I saw it in, but one HS person picking up their allocations did a tally in their signoff binder. I don't remember the specific number they said, but I thought it was either ~1200 or ~1400. When I did my signoffs, I recall thinking that it could be in that range. Take it for what it's worth though. Those aren't hard figures from the brewer's mouth.
  30. heatwaves

    heatwaves Savant (285) California Oct 17, 2009

    I could have been more clear as I re-read my post. I was basically talking overall bottles. My guess is that there are 15,000 - 20,000 bottles of CR. 6 x 1500 RS (just as an example) = 9,000 10 x 1000 HS = 10,000 = 19,000 Even give or take a couple hundred members, it's still in the general range. Definitely not 90,000 bottles.
  31. heatwaves likes this.
  32. I don't know, I don't really trade, in fact, I've only made one trade so far, and it was a bunch of great stuff for a bottle of MW. I max out my CR and BT and drink it all myself because I like it way more than anything else I've had. So, yeah, even if BT was trading for 10 bottles of regular BCBS I wouldn't bother.
    Buck86 likes this.
  33. heatwaves

    heatwaves Savant (285) California Oct 17, 2009

    Perhaps I simply imagined a "1" in front of that figure. :) More likely, I just made a confused merge with the RS & HS figures.

    I hope I just don't have to go over all of the maths again. ~1500 RS at 1x allocation + 442 Hoarders at 2x allocation... blah, blah, blah... I'll shut up now.
  34. Purpleman

    Purpleman Zealot (90) California Jan 2, 2014

    I believe it's around 3000 total members for both societies... 2200-2400 RS 600-800HS.....
  35. Why do you believe this? There are people above you saying they saw a pickup sheet for Hoarders with 442 total members on it. If you have supporting facts, please post them here. Also curious about your RS numbers, which are larger than anything else I've seen. Genuinely curious about the veracity, because it's only a matter of time until someone quotes your post to devalue-by-bottle count the next Reserve/Hoarders only release.
  36. Purpleman

    Purpleman Zealot (90) California Jan 2, 2014

    The Bruery had 3000 bottle openers made, they gave them out to all members( My buddy had them made)!

    From what I recall, he told me there are 2400 RS members, so I guessed on the HS #!

    I'll post the #'s when I get them!
  37. Don't they also sell those bottle openers on the front counter? You typically make far more of a product in the event of lost mail in order to replace it. You don't typically order only the exact amount needed of anything.
  38. heatwaves

    heatwaves Savant (285) California Oct 17, 2009

    Agree with Earlysquid. They typically will order far more than they need. Not just as replacements, but also to give out at other events. As an example, during their Batch 1000 homebrew contest, they handed out a ton of the RS bottleopeners as thanks to the volunteer judges and stewards. I believe employees also use them internally as well when cracking beers for R & D. I don't doubt that they ordered 3,000, but 2400 in just RS seems really, really high.
  39. I think it's 1500 RS and <500 HS. No fact or figures, just using the force.
    heatwaves likes this.

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