Do you think Craft Beer sales will ever pass Macro Lagers?

Short answer: No - price.
Long answer: I don't think so. Macro Lagers will most likely always be cheaper.

 

I would like to keep the faith and answer, "Yes, craft will overtake macro lager swill eventually because it's tastier", but I think reality leans towards this: "No, the general population likes their beer cheap and bland, used as a non-offensive alcohol delivery system".

 

No way most ppl drink craft for the taste first and buzz second. Most ppl drinking bud do it to get drunk.

 

Nope

 

When craft beer outsells macro, craft will be the new macro.

A lot of people like the light neutral taste and reasonable abv's they get in macros. While overall macro sales are flat the lite category is about 50% of that market. Nobody there is looking for a full flavor, high carb 9% brew. And there is really nothing wrong with that, we don't all have to like the same thing.

 

No chance (absent some more changes in the definition from the Brewer's Association). Craft is what, 8% of the market? You'd have to convert 43% of the beer buying public to switch from buying macros. I don't see that ever happening. Plenty of people are perfectly content drinking their macro beers, and good for them. Drink what you enjoy.

 

Sadly, I agree. I have taken BMC drinking friends out and offered to buy them any craft beer they would like to try. Some take me up on the offer, but the far larger percentage aren't even remotely interested. Out of those that do, most go right back to their favorite macro brew when they order the next round. I have made a few converts though.

 

Bingo!

By definition, craft (according to the BA) is small, although they do have a history of ratcheting up the size limit to keep the big craft boys in the club!

Besides, we act like the sudden craft-is-tasty thing is a post-prohibition revelation that will sometime convert everyone.

Don't forget two things: 1) Europe (and many other parts of the world) have had stronger, heavier, hoppier ales and lagers for generations, so there was no huge "scales falling from the eyes" revelation there, and 2) light lagers are the most popular beer styles world-wide, even in Britain, the home of bitters and IPAs.

 

No. Price and taste.

 

If any craft breweries pass the macro breweries it will because they came up with a brew equally light and easily drinkable.

 

In a perfect world, of course. This is never going to be a perfect world, so even if craft got that big, its certain there would be a massive downside or several, most likely in regards to taste.

 

It's highly doubtful that "craft" would overtake "macro" in our lifetimes, but I can't envision a return to a market dominated by a handful of large brewers selling one style. (in slight variations)

 

Getting it up to around 30% would be amazing enough (as well as a gigantic longshot ), and the beer landscape would still be completely different than it is today. I'd take it in a heartbeat.

 

Not really. Its been said above, but mainly it will be a price thing. Also, many people simply aren't as concerned with taste/aroma as people who buy craft

 

Of course not.

 

No. Continued erosion of market share (of BMC) will probably continue and the growth of smaller breweries will likely remain strong. A long list of variables will affect how time determines just how things evolve. During the latest "big" recession, so-called "craft" beer did not seem to suffer, but did grow. A good question.

 

I wanna be far away if And when kids start drinking 30 packs of anything over 6% ABV

 

No, but of note is the size of the craft section versus the BMC section at any of my sixer/bottle shop stops. BMC is barely present...Craft must be doing something right for all these places to be turning a profit.