Wait---what!? The craft beer bubble ISN'T going to burst!?

In my opinion the salient point of the linked article is:

“That doesn’t mean that the number of barrels produced will skyrocket. But more people want to have a drink where their beer is made and that will help spur the growth in smaller operations, he said.”

There is plenty of room for more small, locally focused breweries.

I will be very interested to see how well the newly planned Brew Dog brewery does. It is a real risk to open a larger distributing craft brewery in today’s competitive business environment.

Cheers!

 

I can't disagree. I think it acknowledges the fact that the market is changing, rather than peaking. Where we go to buy our beer is changing. On-site purchases increase along with the number of small local breweries popping up each day. The big boys are feeling the effects; Stone for example.

 

You can relax, there is not now, nor has there ever been, a craft beer "bubble" to burst. Just some sloppy thinking/writing. There may be questions of potential market saturation, but that is not a "bubble." Also as pointed out by others the nature of the market seems it may be changing and that suggests we are far from saturation.

 

Interesting take. I am interested to see how the craft beer world develops and plays out. There sure is a lot going on, which does bring up the thought of "well, how long could this last?" I'm curious how large breweries will hold up, and if any more will reach 50 state distribution.

 

A potential discriminator for larger breweries like Sierra Nevada is they can compete on price. They have economies of scale which permit them to brew more cheaply. They consequently can pass these savings on to their customers in the form of cheaper prices. For example I am of the opinion that Sierra Nevada 12-packs are very economically priced.

Cheers!

P.S. It also seems that Sierra Nevada has a very efficient (economical) distribution system.

@RobH @KOP_Beer_OUtlet

 

Breweries like SN and Lagunitas are fantastic because their delicious beer is set at a fantastic price point. Their 12 pack keeps coming up as "Best Value Beer" in a thread right now. They certainly do have a lot going for them. I just hope the ultra-local movement doesn't negatively impact them. If SN had to stop distributing to my state, I'd be at quite a loss. Not that that's likely at this point, just a potential worry.

 

I hate to say it but I suspect that this is already happening with Sierra Nevada. Ken Grossman Jr. was quoted in an article that sales in 2016 are (were) down. Now in all fairness I don't know if anybody could accurately state this decline is due to the drink local movement but it sure seems like that could be a principle cause to me.

Breweries like Sierra Nevada, Lagunitas, Stone,... will have to recognize the changing landscape and adjust accordingly.

Some of the adjustments that I have noticed so far:

Hoppy Beers

Sierra Nevada has added two new hoppy beers to its year-round lineup: Sidecar (brewed with oranges) and Tropical IPA.

Stone announced its 2017 schedule and it is very heavy with respect to hoppy beers.

New one-off or seasonal beers

It seems that Lagunitas is 'hitting the ball out of the park' with a number of seasonal type beers:

• The 2016 Born Yesterday was OUTSTANDING
• The High-Westified Imperial Coffee Stout is excellent
• I really like the 2016 Waldo

They also added 12th of Never as a year-round beer in 2016 and that beer is very, very good IMO.

Cheers!

 

Yeah, most of the recent big expansions, worry me in todays market. I don't want to see any big brewers that make great beers go bankrupt or dissolve. Brew Dog expansion really scares me, as they don't make very good beers IMO overall and cost a fortune as well. A double negative. Maybe their marketing keeps bringing in the buyers. Best of luck to them.

Flying Dog is expanding to a new facility as well. And it seems they have been on a downward swing based on beer advocate reputation anyway, but according to local sources, they can't keep up with the production levels in current facility. Maybe a lot of noob craft drinkers loves their stuff. Who knows. I think they do make some good/great beers but also quite a few turds mixed in as well.

 

I could see them already hurting. Stone's laid off some employees. I did see Stone's line up is all IPAs (or just about). Bummer. I'm not the biggest fan of west coast IPAs. I trust they can do what they need to do though.

Lagunitas has responded well. Plus, a $4 Imperial Stout bomber?? That's ludicrous (not that it's new, just a fantastic deal anytime it's out).

 

Agree 100% with your opinions here. Sierra Nevada had the most misses in 2016. Lagunitas brought in many new/amazing brews and seems to "get it" the most from the big 3, although they still need to fix Sucks! :-)

Stone continues to be awesome IMO.

 

Maybe the boycott of AB brands (ABInBev) will lead some to discover craft beer? Wishful thinking?

 

Brew Dog reduces their risk a little by offering "equity investments," which IMO was basically no-strings attached crowd-funded cash from fools. But, I digress... I too will be interested in how their brewery does, but considering the tepid response from folks around here to Brew Dog, if they fail it won't surprise me... but maybe we aren't the folks mainly buying their beer?

I will be paying closer attention to how larger established US breweries navigate these changes in the market, and if there's any noticeable difference between ones that stay independent, take a buy-out, or take a minority investment.

 

New Belgium is closing in on 50 states and coming to VT next month. Looking forward to it. Hopefully we'll get some of their Lips of Faith series... I've liked those sours when I've had them.

https://www.beerconnoisseur.com/art...ing-complete-50-state-distribution-early-2017

 

Yup, this will be worth watching.

I found it 'interesting' that about this time last year Victory celebrated its 20th anniversary and shortly thereafter they announced they sold the company to a Private Equity Firm (Artisinal Beverage Ventures).

It would not shock me if we saw more of this sort of stuff in 2017.

Cheers!

 

I was trying to think of other breweries with that sort of capability. It seems they built their second brewery in time to really capitalize off of it before the hyper-local movement started.

I know they get trouble for their "Flat Tire" ale, but they do make good stuff. Their La Folie was one of my first favorite beers. I always keep a bottle in my cellar just in case I am hosting a sour beer lover. I have a bottle of "Clutch", but haven't gotten a chance to enjoy it yet. It wasn't long ago that a Colorado friend brought me back several of their Lips of Faith sours because I couldn't find them in KC (partly because I'm not the best at looking for beers either).

 

Founders is closing in on 50 states. Bell's is not far behind.

 

I wonder how this is effecting imports. If people are buying less regional/national brands, are they even glancing at those 6 month old, $15 dollar six packs of imported Pilsners?

 

I don't think so. My local beer distributor's German and Belgian beer section seems to have shrunken over the last 5 years or so. And I haven't cared that much.

I still buy occasional Belgian Trappist beers, but I don't want old pale lagers. When I can get fresh locally brewed ones from Victory, Sly Fox, Stoudts, etc if I want them.

 

For the most part I do the same.

I will buy a 6-pack of Jever if I can find it fresh; this occurs about once a year.

I recently bought a 6-pack of Double Nickel Pilsner (they are from Pennsauken, NJ). This Pilsner is right there with Neshaminy Creek, Sly Fox, Stoudts, Victory,... IMO.

Cheers!