Which New England Breweries Will Still Exist in 10 Years?

The breweries with fun and unique tap room experiences that are able to right size production to match the market change. The breweries that expanded too much or have a bland brewery experience will be screwed.

 

The "tap room experience" and willingness to go and wait with crowds is what I think will die out. Newer generations will find something else. I'm sure you, Adam Demamp, hope to hell it doesn't go away like me. But I do think its going to shift back in the direction of store bought beer and traditional bars that can capitalize on craft beer, bmc, wine and liquor. We'll enjoy it while it lasts.

 

I don't know. N=1 but I'm done waiting in lines. Period. I'm over any feeling of FOMO from beer. I'm burnt out and jaded on the entire craft beer thing and whatever shitty "scene" has built up around it. A unique tap room experience is still a draw for me. I view it in the same way as a unique restaurant...some are restaurants. Jack's Abby, Notch, Backyard ,CBC, a handful of others that get my repeat business.

I think an event outing will always be fashionable. Some breweries deliver that. Standing in line at a retail factory fingers crossed that you won't have to wait too long again to get a drink will die out fast. Maybe the younger generations will move on but I think there will always be the space for breweries who do the taproom and brewpub thing right.

 

I do think the next 5 years as stated above will tell a lot. For my point now maybe it would be a 10 year thing. I myself am turning 37 shortly. So I am assuming as my daughter grows and we get busier and a bit older I'm sure my trips to the tap rooms will be less frequent and the option for home based stuff after work, kids sports, kids school, my sports(gym, surf, etc) getting out will become a treat at best. What I notice in just my nature of meeting other folks out at tap rooms and just looking around (outside of the immediate city) it tends to be late 20's, more 30's and up. I feel as we all grow that next generation under us that are 21 in a few years might have a whole different outlook on it. Considering the cost of living, tuition and other factors are pressing hard on recent grads.

Will be interesting to see.

 

Small clarification: the growth has slowed. Sales are still climbing for craft beer, just at a lesser rate of increase. Less acceleration, not deceleration, if you will. The smallest breweries are seeing the biggest growths as well.

 

Yup, but as that line begins to plateau for all, then the changes start to come.

 

It will be interesting. What you said does make sense. I guess I'm banking on the DINKs, like myself, a percentage of the younger crown still getting into craft, the old stalwarts and people who may not be craft beer people but like an event outing to keep things going.

 

That and the realization that there's really not much different or new to a lot of these breweries or beers. I love NE IPA's (I just bought a ton at Tree House yesterday) but with every new big brewery I go to its less exciting. The beer is great but not much better than I can get pretty much anywhere else now. Do I really want to spend $4-5 on another IPA that tastes just slightly different just because I haven't had it before? Its not pallet fatigue, its just nothing new. The mystique also wears off when you can walk out of Tree House with over 5 cases of beer on a short line vs a year ago waiting in a long line and getting maybe 12 beers.

 

I was thinking that this is super hypothetical because not only do you have to estimate "craft" growth but also the timing of how styles rise and fall in popularity, since NEIPAs are so en vogue. Even just shifts in tastes might affect pricing premiums and thus revenue.

Think that the next recession could really wallop a lot of breweries by increasing price consciousness. Could especially weed out newer places if continuing craft customers become less risky with their beer budget and look more to their reliable standbys, or smaller places with less economy of scale and thus flexibility on pricing.

 

Literally every NEIPA galaxy bomb tastes roughly 90% the same. Hell I had a great one from Evil Twin and I generally dislike their hoppy beers.

 

I know for me personally, I used to make the drive to treehouse 2 or 3 times a month at the old brewery, but now that my career has progressed I just don’t have the time to drive and wait in line. So I think you could say that people might have a window in their lives where they can kill 3-5 hours on Friday night or Saturday and it’s fine, but as they get older their life progresses, and if they don’t live close to the brewery then the thought of it becomes ridiculous and you would rather just pick up something local.

Also I have to say that what you can find at your local liquor store for craft beer has really improved in the past 2 years. The difference isn’t as great as it once was so why spend so much time and money consistently for a product that is 10-15%better? (also Tree House not having growlers makes me not want to go)

The fact that Trillium is in a densely populated area probably will help them if times do change

 

At least here in VT, I think all the small breweries who make decent beer and are content to stay small will do pretty well. There is even room for more. Too much ambition at the wrong time is what kills many businesses across the board.

My bold prediction is that The Alchemist will still be around in 10 years

 

I'm actually seeing social changes across the board, so while I think mostly the taproom experience winning out I also see @Jbrews point. We have a generation at work around/in the 40s, and even with a lot of us having kids we're ready to throw down during the week for a work or non-work event out at a bar. And that has decreased from years ago when we were even more frequent with being out and about. However all the 20-somethings now are not quite shut-ins but definitely not as active as we were. Just a new generation with easy connectivity without having to visit varying groups of friends in person at different events.

You see how the movie theater business has changed over time. In order to survive they had to improve the seating comfort, incorporate bars into the facility, etc. They couldn't just Soup **** it any longer and say you'll watch this new release film in your plastic seat and like it. What changed this is other better over the air entertainment options, better home TVs, etc. The demand transitioned at some point and the industry had to react.

We have or will be hitting that point shortly with breweries. Too many options both down the street at another brewery or in the stores to just wheel out the cases and watch the lines form.

 

It's good and interesting to see that no one has really said, "Only the breweries with great beer".

Many small-ish breweries who make decent or even bad beer will survive because they have become the "townie" bars. I see this all over CT; no one on this forum or ya know, beer nerds in general, buy their beer or visit them, but plenty of people are filling their taprooms. It's sort of how bad pizza places survive; convenience, location, lower price and palates that aren't discerning.

 

I honestly wish this were the case.

Hell, I'm a big believer that the whole NEIPA craze is more tulip nonsense than anything else, but to me the difference between the Green / Double Galaxy tier and their closest competition (think Trillium, Other Half, etc.) is huuuge.

 

This is literally the best post and most collaborative/non conformational thread in the NE forum.

Even when people completely disagree.