Trappist Westvleteren 12 - Trade Value?

Like $4$ locals? I disagree. This is one of the top 5 most wanted beers on BA,and it will almost certainly be sold out everywhere within a day of releasae. Im not saying its a whale, but at least give it $4$ with other limited releases.

 

I'd argue that it is *not* one of the top 5 most wanted beers on BA.

 

No, it's going to go $4$ for shelf stuff for sure. Shelf stuff worth trading for, but shelf stuff nonetheless. (Surly, Pliny, Heady, Bourbon County, etc, etc)

Westy 12 was not all that difficult to trade for previously, and most anybody who has actively traded for any significant amount of time has already had it. There are now tens of thousands of expensive 6-packs floating around, and many traders are going to be trying to unload 2-3 bottles to subsidize the cost. Supply in the trade forums will greatly outpace demand.

 

ISO: Dave / FT: Westy brick, minus 1 beer and 1 glass so I could try it.

 

Even if it is, the sheer volume of bricks that just came in make it trade for semi limited beers (bcbs, fbs) at best and regular locals at worst. So many were imported that if your on ba and wanted it you just had to apply the most basic effort to secure some. But im sure well still see a million ft:westy 12 iso: bcbs cherry, rare,... Which will get old fast. If anything id think westy 8 and blond are going to go up in value (as will 6).

 

I keep hoping that the "debacles" with Frangelic Mountain Brown, Bolt Cutter, Utopias, and Westy 12 will slow down some people speeding to stores to buy out and hoard new releases.

New hoarders are probably coming at a faster rate than they can be "cured" by such mistakes, but maybe not.

 

This

Plus a soon to appear "The Westvleteren in the Brick Package is not as good as the old Westvleteren" threads accompanied by a plummet out of the Top Ten (if not the Top 100) because the beer will no longer have the delicious "rarium" flavor it once had!

After all, Morons be Morons!

 

Westy12 is definitely not one of the top 5 most wanted beers on BA. I don't know if there's an easier way to do this, but I took the long rooad and searched some of the big dogs for # of wants. If you use that and were able to compile a complete list, I'd say it might be in the top 10.

WANTS
1. Pliny the Elder 2986
2. Kate the Great 2702
3. Pliny the Younger 2599
4. CBS 2351
5. Darkness 2279
6. Westy12 2257
7. Heady 2173
8. Dark Lord 2164
9. KBS 2121
10. Black Tuesday 2055

This list is nowhere near official, I stopped once I found 5 with more wants than Westy12. I know we're off-topic at this point so to satisfy my curiosity I'm going to start another thread.

Edit for anyone interested: http://beeradvocate.com/community/threads/beers-with-the-highest-number-of-wants.55189/

 

Yeah, this is actually a good thing that people keep gobbling up releases that turn out to be in good quantities, low demand, and/or aren't that highly rated. Back in the day gots/wants ratio was a near perfect proxy for how hard it would be to obtain a beer. Something like Bolt Cutter with an inverse 1-to-3 shouldn't trade for anything but shelf locals. Nowadays that number is irrelevant compared to the hype of a new release.

But you're right, there's a good chance that the market is growing faster than people can learn their hoarding lesson.

 

FT: Westy XII brick ISO: x2 Cable Car plus some locals to match $4$

 

FT: westy 12 brick x2 + 1 extra bottle ISO: 2x brandy vanilla DL

 

I agree with all that you've said, although I consider Utopias far from such a debacle. Sure, the mouth breathers trying to trade it for $200 of actually rare beer are a bit out of their minds, but I think there are still plenty who think it's a great beer, limited (fewer bottles than King Henry, at least), worth paying for, and enjoy the hell out of it when they open it. Not hard to tell I'm in the latter group, but oh well.

 

The only people left on earth who hasnt had this beer are noobs and people who don't trade. You should make out pretty well if you're trading with an idiot.

 

Sorry sixth. I was basing this off BA wants. Geez, tough crowd.

 

BA wants? He just showed you BA's don't want this beer anywhere near top 5.

 

What I said can be true even if your second part is true, too. It's supposed to be a great treat, one that I would love to try one day, and very well may be worth paying for to drink. But I lumped it in there because it's recent, people tried and failed to get a bevy of big beer, and it was a costly mistake, one that would likely be successful in dissuading many from trying the same stunt in the future.

 

Actually, wasn't King Henry ~12,000 bottles?

SA stated that there would be ~15,000 bottles of Utopias this year...

Not really agreeing/disagreeing with your statement, just suggesting that they aren't as far apart in rarity as one might think.

 

Trade value should be what you paid for it, and since it should be 85 bucks everywhere, that should be the trade value

 

For some reason I got a chuckle out of this, thinking of the hoards of new beer traders coming in as an endless sworn of zombies. You may take down a few, but for each one there are 10 more slowly creeping up on you. Where vets leaving the trading forum are survivors barricading themselves in bunkers, and their Mountain Dew and twinkie supplies are established trade partners

 

Hey, this is BA. You get what you paid for. And again, I just stopped searching after I found enough to push it out of the top 5 to disprove your post. Was it a DICK MOVE? Sure, albeit a lighthearted one.