Do you think Craft Beer sales will ever pass Macro Lagers?

Discussion in 'Beer Talk' started by Skoallio, Sep 3, 2014.

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  1. jesskidden

    jesskidden Grand Pooh-Bah (3,071) Aug 10, 2005 New Jersey
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    Well, that figure is dollar share, not volume (the traditional US brewing industry method to rank market share)
    and that inflates craft's numbers since it is typically sold for a much higher price than most AB, MC or Pabst products.
    (For instance, the Brewers Association figures put US craft's percentage as 7.8% by volume and 14.3% by dollar.)

    Not to take anything away from Oregon's amazing beer culture and brewing industry - and it should be noted that even before the craft era, Oregon was loyal to it's local brewer. Blitz Weinhard was the #1 brewer in the early 70's with an impressive 32% of the market. And #2 and #3 were their Washington state neighbor brewers, Olympia and Carling. In '74, for example, Blitz Weinhard sold more than twice as much beer in Oregon as the 4 nationals - AB, Miller, Schlitz and Pabst - combined.
     
    #61 jesskidden, Sep 4, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2014
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  2. Jack_Frost79

    Jack_Frost79 Initiate (0) Jul 30, 2014 Maryland

    Nope. That's not a bad thing though.
     
  3. otispdriftwood

    otispdriftwood Initiate (0) Dec 9, 2011 Colorado

    NEVER! Why? Until the marketing budget of craft beer exceeds the marketing budget of macros, the sheep who are loyal to macros because the ads suggest they're going to meet pretty women while drinking will never even try a craft beer. Likewise for those who actually believe macros are the best beer out there. And there are plenty of both.
    I don't think price has much to do with the comparison. You get what you pay for.
     
  4. BigCheese

    BigCheese Initiate (0) Jul 4, 2009 Massachusetts

    Nation wide (or world wide) never.

    In affluent/high income regions like San Fran, Boston, ect. Probably not, but it could get a lot closer.
     
  5. russpowell

    russpowell Grand High Pooh-Bah (7,256) May 24, 2005 Arkansas
    Pooh-Bah Society Trader

    Even if cost wasn't a factor, I'm not sure it would overtake the big boys. The amount of people buying the low calorie "beer" astounds me. I can down a can of Bud light on a hot a day, but these sub 90 calorie beers are just a mystery to me. I would just a soon have water. Here it is really sad, a majority of beer drinkers prefer the watered down crap you buy at gas station or Walmart. They eschew the beers above 4.2% ABV since you would have to go in an actual liquor store. To a large segment of the American public tasteless/watery beer= good beer.
     
  6. kguard

    kguard Pundit (820) Feb 19, 2013 Iowa

    Macro will maintain. Fueled by uneducated people and underage kids(who only beer by commercials), BMC will retain high volume sales.
    Craft can compete as a whole. As sports stadiums become more appealing to locals (Anchor at Levi Stadium in San Fran and Summit for St. Paul Saints), people will start drinking more of what is there. If you go to a game, you still want a beer. I suck it up and pay $8 for Bud, so I could see fans doing the same. That in turn forces the sports bars (BWW & Hooters) to carry more localized beer.
    Will it happen in 10 years? No. But if 3F could be the Colts beer and Surly be the Vikings beer and New Glarus be the Packers beer, then YES!
     
  7. azorie

    azorie Pooh-Bah (2,409) Mar 18, 2006 Florida
    Pooh-Bah

    Never say never, but they will have to brew lagers near the same price points. or wait a hundred years or so.




    Just my 2c.

    many of us still drink "craft" on lower budgets, but we are limited. I love founders porter, its better than any homebrew porter I made so far, and while I make a decent one, I know better when I drink it. but at $12 a sixer. I can only buy 2 sixers a month.....
     
  8. lonewolf371

    lonewolf371 Initiate (0) Apr 27, 2014 Michigan

    I think so. Craft beer doesn't just mean high abv beers, it can also mean artfully crafted low abv beers. I think craft brewers are starting with the big, intense flavors because that's the easiest way to differentiate themselves from MBC. Once that market becomes saturated, some of the bigger craft brewers will work harder on making flavorful, clean, low abv beers. We've already seen the beginning of this with the session IPA craze. I predict eventually more brewers will get into lagers and try to revitalize old styles like Berliner Weisse and also begin pilsner experimentation.

    Once that happens, they'll begin taking more market share from MBC, at which MBC may buy out more craft brewers or make new products of their own. At that point, by my own personal definition, everything will be craft.
     
  9. Domingo

    Domingo Grand Pooh-Bah (4,206) Apr 23, 2005 Colorado
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    In some towns, sure. Overall? No way.
    Look no further than Belgium where Jupiler and Stella outsell everyone else and they never even had a beer "dark age."
     
    #69 Domingo, Sep 4, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2014
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  10. mychalg9

    mychalg9 Pooh-Bah (2,061) Apr 8, 2010 Illinois
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    A: Yes
    When: The future
     
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  11. HuskyHawk

    HuskyHawk Initiate (0) Jun 5, 2014 Massachusetts

    Agreed. Session IPAs and shandys/radlers are both part of this. When a brand new beer, by a fake craft brewery, in a style largely unknown in America (Leinenkugel's Summer Shandy) can outsell all but the top 7-8 entire craft breweries by itself, it becomes clear what most people want. That beer had no history, no pent up core group of drinkers, and I never saw it advertised on TV. Yet it, Shock Top and Blue Moon all crush the sales of any craft beer.

    Let's face it, DIPAs and barrel aged *anything* are highly prized by BAs, but they simply can't be consumed in volume or even produced in volume. Lambics may have low enough abvs to be consumed that way, but they take too long to make and cost too much.
     
  12. MNAle

    MNAle Initiate (0) Sep 6, 2011 Minnesota

    That's an unfounded comment, IMO. BMC sales are driven by price and taste (yes, real people who are not cretins do prefer the taste).
     
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  13. MNAle

    MNAle Initiate (0) Sep 6, 2011 Minnesota

    Yeah, an historic Wisconsin brewery, founded in 1884, has benefited from the distribution and marketing prowess of MillerCoors. But, Leinenkugel is hardly "fake". It is not a brand created by MC (like Blue Moon), but is a 130 year old regional brewer. Of course, its ownership by MC means it is, by BA definition, not "craft", but that does not make in any more "fake" than Goose Island is "fake." Summer Shandy, BTW, has been around since 2007. It is not my taste, but it is also not "brand new."
     
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  14. basto

    basto Initiate (0) Mar 7, 2014 Utah

    Perfect analogy.
     
  15. hopfenunmaltz

    hopfenunmaltz Pooh-Bah (2,611) Jun 8, 2005 Michigan
    Pooh-Bah Society

    Yes, 65 to 70% of volume in Belguim is Jupiler, Stella, Maes, and other Euro lagers.

    The figure is similar in the UK. Sad how little share the Real Ale has, and those are true session beers for the most part.
     
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  16. Domingo

    Domingo Grand Pooh-Bah (4,206) Apr 23, 2005 Colorado
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    Ironically, I actually think this is where the Reinheitsgebot saved German beer. While it may have "stifled the creativity" of <1% of brewers, they never really had the adjunct lager takeover that plagued the rest of the world.
    While Radeberger, Beck's, and Bitburger are nothing amazing - I'd take them over the best selling beers in any other country with the possible exception of Urquell.
    I can live with them not having jalapeno and maple sours as long as they don't have to stoop to Bud Light.
     
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  17. M-Fox24

    M-Fox24 Grand Pooh-Bah (3,617) Mar 17, 2013 New Jersey
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    Na….unless beer was everyone’s priority. Similarly, fashion will never overtake your local Macy’s, unless clothing was everyone’ priority.


    That is, everyone has their own separate interests, and for us folks here on this forum it’s likely to be crafty fluids. This is why, and to some extent, basic food, cars, lingerie WILL SURPASS exotic food, cars, lingerie, etc. Of course, cost and so many other factors are at play here as well.


    Furthermore, “Macros” are in it for the money/business, whereas craft breweries may have different interests: the people; quality; family; hobby. Regardless, if craft imposed any kind of serious threat to the Macro guys, then some serious adjusting would happen. Macro players may significantly increase advertising, sponsorships, perhaps buy the name rights for some top end craft breweries, or buy craft breweries themselves (e.g. Goose Island)
     
  18. ChanChan

    ChanChan Maven (1,341) Dec 12, 2009 California

    BCBS beer pong can literally kill you, both in the wallet and in general!!
     
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  19. WillieThreebiers

    WillieThreebiers Grand High Pooh-Bah (8,057) Apr 26, 2012 Connecticut
    Pooh-Bah Society

    YES. In the dystopian future all beer will be craft.
     
  20. MarcM

    MarcM Initiate (0) Aug 19, 2011 California

    No. It takes a real interest to discover different styles, etc. Ignorance is bliss for most.

    Same as people who only listen to Top 40 music. If it's not on the radio they're not going to seek it out (or even be aware of it).
     
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