Tired Hands (March 2018)

Discussion in 'Mid-Atlantic' started by bsullivan, Mar 1, 2018.

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  1. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,181) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Pooh-Bah Society

    I would suggest that the looong line yesterday indicates that you are indeed "wrong" here.

    There appears to be a very, very strong demand for 'shake beers regardless of the price (original price or inflated trade price).

    Cheers!
     
  2. Chroma914

    Chroma914 Zealot (599) Oct 13, 2006 Pennsylvania

    That's how you get tired hands.

    I'll see myself out.
     
  3. Kadonny

    Kadonny Pooh-Bah (2,582) Sep 5, 2007 Florida
    Pooh-Bah Society Trader

    Buduh bump. Mike drop.
     
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  4. makalarch

    makalarch Initiate (0) Jul 31, 2011 Pennsylvania

    If they changed HopHands to Milkshake Light it would trade like hotcakes.
     
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  5. jojo2112

    jojo2112 Initiate (0) Sep 24, 2014 Pennsylvania

    I wasn't even thinking about the black market, so I suppose that could inflate things. I would love to know what percentage of people get on line strictly to sell on the black market.
     
  6. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,181) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Pooh-Bah Society

    Me too. While I do not know the actual values I am confident that the number of folks buying beer to trade is much higher for the 'shake releases.

    Cheers!
     
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  7. CharacterZero

    CharacterZero Initiate (0) Aug 23, 2017 Pennsylvania

    Wanted to chime in here... Wednesday was the longest shake line Ive been in, and Ive been in most of them... Lots of people in line that just show up simply for shakes.
     
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  8. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,181) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Pooh-Bah Society

    Would you be willing to speculate on how many (as a percentage) of those people are re-sellers?

    Cheers!
     
  9. CharacterZero

    CharacterZero Initiate (0) Aug 23, 2017 Pennsylvania

    Tough call.. honestly I think many of the people in line for shakes purchase them and share them or drink them personally. Its pretty common to meet people that “don’t like stouts” and “never had a bottle from the general store”... same kinda people fawning over Foreign Object shelfies at their local distributor.
     
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  10. Nadtla

    Nadtla Initiate (0) Oct 14, 2010 Pennsylvania
    Trader

    If I had to take a guess, I would say 10% - 15% at most are people selling the beer after the fact. I’d also say there are a good amount of people who go after milkshakes for the opportunity to trade them (myself included - not a huge fan of more than 1 - 2 shakes).

    I think a big reason why shake lines are as long as they are is because they are genre-defining beers that breweries around the country are looking to replicate so being able to get the “standard” is more than enough reason for some to line up, and line up early.
     
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  11. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,181) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Pooh-Bah Society

    How about we combine the two activities of re-sell and trade. What would be your guess on the percentage of folks who are in line with the goal to re-sell or trade those 'shake beers?

    Cheers!
     
  12. William_Navidson

    William_Navidson Maven (1,451) May 1, 2015 Pennsylvania
    Trader

    I would estimate that close to the majority, like 40%-60%, are probably drinking some of their Shakes and trading others. This is all completely speculative, obviously.
     
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  13. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,181) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Pooh-Bah Society

    I wonder what the trade value of 'shake beers are? Do you think that for one 'shake beer they can demand two (insert popular brewery name here) beers?

    Cheers!
     
  14. breslinp

    breslinp Initiate (0) Sep 28, 2006 Pennsylvania

    There has to be economic value to stand in line. Though I think most of that is a "cool factor" in being able to share this beer with others whether it's in person or through social media. Beer can be had easier and for less money. It's a similar phenomenon to sneakers and iphones.

    I also think a good majority in line are people taking turns for a group which would spread out the extra effort and bring down the economic cost.

    Standing in line and going through hardship to get the beer also makes people perceive that the beer is better.... Maybe some feedback loop to keep this line thing going for so long?
     
  15. Nadtla

    Nadtla Initiate (0) Oct 14, 2010 Pennsylvania
    Trader

    Taking a guess - I’d say 50% of all milkshake beers are sold or (mostly) traded to other people (accounts for people getting two four-packs and only keeping one). That being said, my estimate also includes people who are also interested in helping out friends/other locals who might not have been able to make it in time to get that particular beer.

    For people interested in trading they know they can find other hard to come by beers (monkish has tight limits, treehouse’s most recent very green was 3 cans/pp, etc.) using milkshakes. So hard to put a pure definition on what the trade value of that particular beer is but I’d say it opens up conversations with others across the country with similarly difficult to access beers. That being said, on a $4$ scale, I’ve seen people trade 2:1 for a milkshake given the comparatively high costs.
     
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  16. William_Navidson

    William_Navidson Maven (1,451) May 1, 2015 Pennsylvania
    Trader

    Sure, in some cases. The other factor is the cost, given that 2 Shakes equal the cost of 3 other cans, for instance. Given the scarcity and level of demand, sometimes it makes sense to trade 2 Shakes for like 3 other cans.
     
  17. Kadonny

    Kadonny Pooh-Bah (2,582) Sep 5, 2007 Florida
    Pooh-Bah Society Trader

    Ive gotten 2 for 1 before when I trade them (hardly ever do) for like Other Half etc. Its pretty common I think.
     
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  18. bmrattay

    bmrattay Devotee (361) Dec 29, 2014 New Jersey

    The question of how many people are buying shakes to sell or trade away is a hard one to answer with any sort of accuracy. I know many people, myself included, who will buy a full allotment of shakes to both consume and trade. If I buy two four packs, consume one, and either trade or sell (at face value) to a friend who couldn't make it, which camp am I in? On one hand I drank the beer. On the other (if I traded it) I potentially profited from it.

    I can easily obtain 2-1 on milkshakes, especially if the other party is trading regular rotations from Other Half, Tree House, Burley Oak, etc... I may drink a four-pack and trade the other four-pack but still end up with the same amount of beer in my fridge as if I hadn't taken a sip.
     
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  19. jojo2112

    jojo2112 Initiate (0) Sep 24, 2014 Pennsylvania

    I'm more interested in the percentage that are there exclusively to sell at a markup (not even drink or trade). I think it's pretty save to say the percentage of people there to trade (even just a portion of it) is very high.

    I mean, are there people that don't even drink craft beer but are just there knowing they can sell at a 400% markup just by waiting in line for a couple hours?
     
  20. thebeers

    thebeers Grand Pooh-Bah (5,393) Sep 10, 2014 Pennsylvania
    Pooh-Bah Society Trader

    Is there really a regular market for these at $26 a can?
     
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