How much will the trade value of Bolt Cutter drop once it gets into distibution?

Discussion in 'Beer Trading Talk' started by ChadQuest, Nov 17, 2012.

  1. ChadQuest

    ChadQuest Initiate (0) Mar 4, 2009 Illinois

    Right now it it is being treated like a brewery only release, since so far it is, but once it hits distro and millions of people have it, do you think it will be a CBS level or a FMB level trade beer?
  2. Levitation

    Levitation Initiate (0) Aug 7, 2009 California

    distributed midwest beer? ya, it'll be a wale.

    fmb wasn't barrel-aged so no one gave a shit.
    nanobrew, BobZ, YaKnowBrady and 6 others like this.
  3. abecall98

    abecall98 Devotee (448) Aug 11, 2007 California
    Beer Trader

    Well, what does it go for right now?
  4. LambicKing

    LambicKing Initiate (0) Apr 13, 2011 Germany

    I think you answered your own question via your phrasing (answer: FMB)...hopefully BC doesn't also taste like ass.
  5. seplo

    seplo Disciple (376) Sep 8, 2009 Connecticut
    Beer Trader

    We already got it here in CT, and i have to say it was pretty damn good...CHEERS
    Wade5614 likes this.
  6. ChadQuest

    ChadQuest Initiate (0) Mar 4, 2009 Illinois

    I am pretty much wondering if i will need to trade one or two bottles for M.
    harrymel likes this.
  7. crushedvol

    crushedvol Initiate (0) Jan 29, 2008 Illinois

    Ive never had it, but there was a guy going table to table trying to trade it at fobab, which either means its not that good or its nott that hard to get a hold of.
    libbey likes this.
  8. Etan

    Etan Initiate (0) Jul 11, 2011 Wisconsin

    Fuck that guy.
    MarcatGSB, valdieu2 and DevilsCups like this.
  9. minnesotaryan

    minnesotaryan Initiate (0) Dec 27, 2010 Minnesota

    who cares, it will be delicious!
  10. yeahnatenelson

    yeahnatenelson Meyvn (1,165) Feb 8, 2010 Illinois
    Beer Trader

    It's clear everybody is trying to strike while the iron is hot. I wouldn't worry so much, Chad.

    That said, remember that time I was super cool and hooked you up with that thing? I think that R&D Sour Ale would be a nice thank you.
    Centennial likes this.
  11. ChadQuest

    ChadQuest Initiate (0) Mar 4, 2009 Illinois

    Anything for you YeahNathanNelson.
    yeahnatenelson likes this.
  12. mtrutlin

    mtrutlin Initiate (67) Apr 4, 2012 South Carolina
    Beer Trader

    I'm pretty sure no one gave a shit because the beer sucked not because it wasn't barrel aged (Darkness isn't barrel aged and people seem to go a little crazy for it)
    Wiscobrew likes this.
  13. xxcarpxx

    xxcarpxx Initiate (0) Jan 13, 2011 Alabama

    I would think with its 15% ABV few states that get Founders distribution will get it...I don't see it trading for less..
    woodchopper likes this.
  14. cbeer88

    cbeer88 Crusader (719) Sep 5, 2007 Massachusetts

    I thought Frangelic was excellent. Obviously you need to like hazelnut coffee, but if you do, the beer nailed it. Tons of flavor. Levi was right - if it was a -bal, it would have been 10x more difficult to obtain.

    Darkness and Dark Lord are two exceptions to the rule, largely because they came about before the whole barrel aged era took off.

    Bolt Cutter is going to be a "whale", even in distro. Not quite CBS level, but if the reviews hold up, it will likely be the next King Henry of the trading world.
    Hanzo and MarkIntihar like this.
  15. kscaldef

    kscaldef Initiate (0) Jun 11, 2010 Oregon
    Beer Trader

    Translation: I have a case of bolt cutter
  16. cbeer88

    cbeer88 Crusader (719) Sep 5, 2007 Massachusetts

    Yes, I teleported from Boston to the Founders brewery and picked up a case, only to hype it up in the forums before unloading my warez onto the trading scene.

    I assure you that the odds of me posting "ISO: Bolt Cutter" are a hell of a lot higher than the odds of me ever posting "FT: Bolt Cutter".

    I'm just calling it like I see it - Founders and Goose Island are the two breweries that consistently trade beyond their expected value with limited releases. Bolt Cutter is currently rating a hefty 4.62, and it's a bourbon barrel aged barleywine, a style that tends to hold strong value. It already has the initial rolling thunder of hype and difficulty trading, and it will be thinly distributed. All signs are pointing at "whalez".
    Hanzo, Brew33, AJDePaul and 1 other person like this.
  17. JohnGalt1

    JohnGalt1 Poo-Bah (4,681) Aug 10, 2005 Idaho
    Beer Trader

    I am soooo hoping this makes it to an online retailer... I have just completed and am in the process of completing some pretty awesome trades and honestly the trading part of my brain is a little fried. I haven't ordered anything from an online place for a couple years. Tonight something clicked and I thought, "Damn, I should just start looking around online again."
  18. mtrutlin

    mtrutlin Initiate (67) Apr 4, 2012 South Carolina
    Beer Trader

    I know some people enjoyed it but I think not only do you need to enjoy overpowering artificial hazelnut flavoring, but the brown ale style (which isn't a top choice of styles in craft beer circles).

    Btw, you can add Kate the Great almost everything from Hill Farmstead to your list of non-BA beers that people go crazy for. Plus there are plenty of beers that people would go crazy for if they were difficult to obtain (breakfast stout comes to mind).

    If a beer is amazing and hard to get, people will go crazy for it, regardless of whether its Barrel Aged.
  19. xnicknj

    xnicknj Initiate (0) May 25, 2009 Pennsylvania

    millions and millions of bottles of bolt cutter on the wall, take one down, pass it around...
  20. cbeer88

    cbeer88 Crusader (719) Sep 5, 2007 Massachusetts

    Most people actually think Kate is barrel aged, and it's as close as you can get (aged on port soaked oak spirals), but it also benefits from the "existing before barrel aging was huge" thing.

    I totally agree with you though - there are tons of beers out there that people will go nuts for if they are good enough. But, being barrel aged and from a known brewery really does escalate the hype-o-meter on a beer. Even Hill Farmstead. You could easily argue that their best beer is Edward, a simple pale ale... yet it's still all the limited/rare/barrel stuff from HF that people drool the most over. Ann had more ISO's than bottles of beer in existence...
  21. mtrutlin

    mtrutlin Initiate (67) Apr 4, 2012 South Carolina
    Beer Trader

    While I do agree with you generally, I still feel as though the reason FMB wasn't highly sought after was because many (and possibly most) people felt it wasn't a good beer.
  22. CruisaC

    CruisaC Initiate (0) Sep 3, 2010 Ohio
    Beer Trader

    Ummm, sorry to jump in on this discussion, but I have 3 remaining bottles of FMB, and would gladly part ways with them for a beer of my favorite style, a BBA barleywine. Just FYI
    domtronzero likes this.
  23. heatwaves

    heatwaves Aspirant (269) Oct 17, 2009 California
    Beer Trader

    I just traded Black Tuesday for Bolt Cutter and a BCBS. After I pulled the trigger, I started to second guess it. Bolt Cutter's rating seems to be plummeting, while the number of "FT" posts seems to now be quite prevalent.
  24. Levitation

    Levitation Initiate (0) Aug 7, 2009 California

    that's begging the question, as many barrel-aged beers are regarded as amazing.
  25. eyeenjoybeer

    eyeenjoybeer Initiate (0) Feb 18, 2011 Seychelles

    Don't overreact - this beer has not even been distributed and is narrowly reviewed. And do you find your own tastes closely aligned to the rating system here?
  26. mtrutlin

    mtrutlin Initiate (67) Apr 4, 2012 South Carolina
    Beer Trader

    As are plenty of non-BA beers. FMB just so happens to not be one of them. That is my point.
  27. maximum12

    maximum12 Poo-Bah (3,614) Jan 21, 2008 Minnesota
    Beer Trader

    Same old tired region vs. region. That drum is worn out from pointless beating.

    And to actually answer the question: ultimately, it will trade to how good it is. Trade 'value' can get out of whack with an anticipated new release until a critical mass of people have tried it, then it will trade to how tasty it is (see: Hellshire I, Frangelic). In 2-3 weeks we'll if Bolt Cutter tastes like CBS or FMB, & it'll trade accordingly.
    woodchopper likes this.
  28. SubpoenaDeuces

    SubpoenaDeuces Initiate (0) Feb 3, 2011 California

    yeah but it had coffee in it, so if the CBS/BCBCS rubric holds up, aging the shit out of midwest coffee beers make them worth infinitely more.
    libbey and Sarlacc83 like this.
  29. Sarlacc83

    Sarlacc83 Crusader (752) Mar 2, 2008 Oregon
    Beer Trader

    CBS wasn't that good, but people wanted insane things for it anyway.
    chardlogic, FUNKPhD, Mandark and 2 others like this.
  30. youradhere

    youradhere Devotee (491) Feb 29, 2008 Washington
    Beer Trader

  31. hopsbreath

    hopsbreath Initiate (0) Aug 28, 2009 Oregon

    Festival of Barrel-aged and wood Beer.
  32. cpinto6

    cpinto6 Initiate (0) Feb 25, 2010 Georgia

    You do realize he's from Cali right?
  33. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested Initiate (0) May 10, 2012 California

    what difference does it make though? 10,000 bottles is 10,000 bottles. 10,000 bottles isn't rare and shouldn't trade like it is, but with midwest (goose island) releases they tend to.
  34. Etan

    Etan Initiate (0) Jul 11, 2011 Wisconsin

    pretty sure that's wrong - begging the question is when something strongly implies that we should ask a question about it. just fyi
  35. immobilisme

    immobilisme Aspirant (231) Nov 8, 2005 Illinois

    Bolt Cutter is not better than average. I had it on draft today and was disappointed. I drove up to the release and got bottles, but will probably be trading them away. It just isn't very special imo.
  36. kscaldef

    kscaldef Initiate (0) Jun 11, 2010 Oregon
    Beer Trader

    richardflyr, stupac2 and woosterbill like this.
  37. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested Initiate (0) May 10, 2012 California

    maybe you're kidding but if not, that is not correct.
  38. Etan

    Etan Initiate (0) Jul 11, 2011 Wisconsin

    I thought my wording was enough to tip people off, but I guess not...
  39. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested Initiate (0) May 10, 2012 California

    the argument about how quickly KH would've sold out has been done and i don't think it's a very productive conversation.

    beat trades very reasonably now. i don't know what it was like at the release but if we're comparing the two then king henry should be trading $4$ with good brewery only stuff now like beat does. i don't know beat bottle counts but i know it's less than KH.

    i don't understand the argument that beat sitting at the brewery for a few weeks hurts its value. why does anything other than bottle count, taste, and price effect trade value? no matter how the bottles are distributed, there were 12,000 bottles of king henry. it should trade accordingly. KH should be 1:1 with ffac, beat, etc, but when an offer like that is made it's mocked. why do KH/bcbvs trade for over 2:1 dollarwise for bottles that have 1/6th or less the bottle count? that is the midwest shelf whale effect.
    SubpoenaDeuces likes this.
  40. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested Initiate (0) May 10, 2012 California

    if 10,000 people got 1 beer i wouldn't expect any of it to trade. but if 5,000 people got 2 beers and 1,000 people got 10, they taste equally good and cost the same, then why shouldn't they go 1:1? the only reason is because the 10,000 seem to think their struggles to acquire the beer should be reflected in the trade value. i think that is odd.
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