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How much will the trade value of Bolt Cutter drop once it gets into distibution?

Discussion in 'Beer Trading Talk' started by ChadQuest, Nov 17, 2012.

  1. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested May 10, 2012 California

    i just don't understand this argument. you guys are suggesting that because someone had the option to get a case that the beer is worth less than it's dollar amount.

    even in these scenarios we're only considering beers like beat. what about beers like BA speedway, bb batch 9k, etc? there are several beers i can think of off the top of my head that are double the price, 1/8th the bottle count, low bottle limit, and didn't last long that are generally expected to go 1:1 for kh/bcbvs. it defies all logic except the logic of the midwest shelf whale, the very same logic you guys are using to try to prove your point. unfortunately it doesn't make sense to me.
  2. sarro

    sarro May 12, 2009 Michigan
    Beer Trader

    Is there a "midwest shelf whale" not made by Goose Island?

    Demand seems to trump all in terms of trading these days.
  3. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested May 10, 2012 California

    ok, i guess it does make sense but i think it's shitty and predatory. if my last beat is worth so much to me that i'd want someone to triple the value in comparable beer then i should probably just drink it myself. i understand that the issue arises when people are willing to make the huge offers to get people to give up their few king henrys, so it's not just people in the midwest hoarding beers and trying to drive up the value. i just don't think it's very nice to ask the inflated market value for your beer when you paid 15 dollars for it and someone offers another great beer that cost 15 dollars with the same or lower bottle count is what it comes down to. maybe i would feel differently if i had a beer that demands more than it's cost though.

    also just want to say that i'm not accusing you of being an asshole, i know you're well known for your generosity
  4. GraniteSkunk

    GraniteSkunk Apr 17, 2007 Illinois

    We will see about as much Bolt Cutter as we saw of CBS around here. There was plenty of Better Half and Frangelic around here, but there will be less than a case of Bolt Cutter per store available around here
  5. ChadQuest

    ChadQuest Mar 4, 2009 Illinois

    That is bad news around here
    LambicKing and MrKennedy like this.
  6. maximum12

    maximum12 Jan 21, 2008 Minnesota
    Beer Trader

    Well, the masses would say you're not wrong, but wildly wrong.

    I thought it was very good but nothing too special, but our opinion is in the distinct minority on CBS.
  7. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested May 10, 2012 California

    sub 1k bottle count beers are a little different than 10,000+

    if i had an 09 BT to trade i would try to find a comparably rare bottle i really wanted and go 1:1
  8. apocalypsezombie

    apocalypsezombie May 12, 2012

    Speaking of low bottle count/brewery only beers being the only beers that should trade well, I'm still willing to move my 600 count/brewery only Deesko! for a 1200 bottle count/sold at 2 places T-25 or a 2700 bottle count BA Speedway :)
    llckeller03 and lurchingbeast like this.
  9. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested May 10, 2012 California

    1000 isnt a lot

    12,000 is

    this is a pointless conversation
  10. apocalypsezombie

    apocalypsezombie May 12, 2012

    That really isn't a pointless conversation. Founders is sought after by Non-BA's. People who have never heard of the concept of beer trading or have ever seen this site are seeking out this beer. In addition, those 12,000 bottles are being heavily distributed. They'll be far too spread out to just walk into a store and grab one off the shelf.
  11. cfh64

    cfh64 Aug 16, 2005 Texas
    Beer Trader

    Holy fuckballs! Really guys? I recognize many of you, have chatted with a few and traded with a few. What bothers me is I know many of you are generous and stand up BA's yet here you are arguing about numbers, rarity, ratings, etc. Many of you bitch about the way things "used to be" when we traded beers we wanted for other beers we wanted regardess of numbers or ratings. You bitch about and mock "noobs" for asking too much. What kind of standard and/or example are you setting?

    For fucks sake, its beer, a liquid in a bottle.
  12. JebediahScooter

    JebediahScooter Sep 5, 2010 Vermont

    I would think that somebody with Michele Foucault as their avatar might be a bit more crafty with their Internet wordplay.
    Kuemmelbrau, Etan and woosterbill like this.
  13. llckeller03

    llckeller03 Jan 20, 2012 Illinois

    Anyone else eating popcorn and watching this thread as I am?
  14. ChadQuest

    ChadQuest Mar 4, 2009 Illinois

    Last shelf release i only had to get to the store at 4am to get bottles, finally beat the truck chasers.
  15. richardflyr

    richardflyr Jul 28, 2009 Connecticut
    Beer Trader

    I personally think the quality of the beer vastly outweighs the "rarity" or more specifically the bottle count available. Bottle count is handy to know how likely it is to find someone with an over abundance of a specific beer, but doesn't speak directly to what it will trade for on the "open market."

    Yes, a lot of us have regular trading partners, but that is more akin to sharing a good brew with a buddy more than a trade. Almot all the beers I have in my celler I am willing to share, but not all of my beers are game to trade.

    For me personally, when it comes to trading a beer, my first question is "how many can I part with comfortably?". Those are generally $4$ beers. Anything "uncomfortable" that I want to drink/share myself, I could be talked out of, but it would take some convincing.

    With beers where you may get one, maybe two if you are persistent/lucky (Midwest shelf wales), I would probably just prefer to drink them instead of trade them. Which reduces the amount available on the open market.
  16. stxSS07

    stxSS07 Nov 23, 2010 Illinois

    Hey guys I can do a cartwheel.
    yamar68, FUNKPhD, ChadQuest and 4 others like this.
  17. dvelcich

    dvelcich Feb 6, 2008 Illinois

    Because you're missing a main point... Availability. You understand how this works. I know you do. I'm not buying the "bury my head in the sand" type arguments you're throwing at us. Just because you don't like one of the aspects of what makes up the trade value of a beer doesn't mean it ceases to exist.

    Let's go ahead and discuss this right here. What makes up the trade value of a beer? I like your three points with my one added. So:

    Availability- The ease with which a person can acquire enough bottles of a beer to comfortably trade some away.

    Bottle Count- The overall number of bottles produced.

    Reviews/Taste- How good the beer is.

    Price- Cost per bottle.

    Can anyone think of anything else that legitimately determines the value of a beer?

    PS: I understand value can't be quantified. This is just a discussion of what goes through someone's head when they are thinking of trading a beer.
    drewba likes this.
  18. DavidEddie

    DavidEddie Jul 12, 2006 Illinois

    It's going to be worth... there's no word to describe it. Schmooblydong? That's not it, but it's close. Let--let me try and put it in terms you can understand. Imagine being high at a Depeche Mode concert while two dudes take you on in a sun-baked porta-john.
    apocalypsezombie likes this.
  19. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested May 10, 2012 California

    i would say that bottle count is a good way to measure availability. in any case any distributed beer is inarguably significantly more available than any 1200 bottle brewery only release. i find the argument that since fewer people have access to it it's easier to trade for to be pretty bizarre but it's ok you guys win you can call off the dogs. i'll have nightmares about people from illinois yelling at me tonight
  20. dvelcich

    dvelcich Feb 6, 2008 Illinois

    yamar68 and FUNKPhD like this.
  21. harrymel

    harrymel Dec 15, 2010 Washington

    Living on the west coast is generally awesome.
  22. Ungertaker

    Ungertaker Apr 30, 2010 Minnesota
    Beer Trader

    To each their own, but I don't know if I want a beer that is worth two dudes taking me on in a porta-john.
    FUNKPhD, minnesotaryan and mnbearsfan like this.
  23. wittyname

    wittyname Aug 4, 2012 North Carolina
    Beer Trader

    You really want to know what "worth" is. Well its really quite simple.

    Gonna find my baby, gonna hold her tight, gonna grab some afternoon delight.........
    apocalypsezombie likes this.
  24. Hanzo

    Hanzo Feb 27, 2012 Virginia

    So an 88 average is now considered not good on this site? Not that you can go by reviews, but I'd say the majority of people that tried FMB and knew what they were getting themselves into at least found the beer adequate.
  25. mtrutlin

    mtrutlin Apr 4, 2012 South Carolina
    Beer Trader

    Ok, maybe I'm being a bit harsh. The beer was alright. It was by no means bad. That being said, the quality of the beer was not nearly good enough to have people go crazy trying to obtain it. The fact that all you'd be able to get for it in trade right now is off-the-shelf locals pretty much says it all.
  26. Hanzo

    Hanzo Feb 27, 2012 Virginia

    Yeah, I mean it certainly didn't live up to other Founders beers, but could it be compared to Blushing Monk as far as availability and trading stature? (was just looking for a non BA Founders Backstage beer)
  27. Sarlacc83

    Sarlacc83 Mar 2, 2008 Oregon

    The mitigating factor here is that the vast majority of beer on this site is excessively overrated. Something like Tactical Nuclear Penguin is a 79. If a beer sucks, people still give it a 3.6 unless it's Budweiser.
    EricCioe, FUNKPhD, ChadQuest and 4 others like this.
  28. Arbitrator

    Arbitrator Nov 26, 2008 California

    Yup. If it's below a 90 on this site, it's very likely forgettable.

    A year or two back, Todd revealed that the average grade on BA was around a B/B+.
    ChadQuest, jbuddle, drewba and 3 others like this.
  29. kscaldef

    kscaldef Jun 11, 2010 Oregon
    Beer Trader

    I love the reviews where they drain poured the beer but still give it better than a 3 rating
  30. csano

    csano Sep 21, 2010 Washington

    I was able to get 24 bottles of AftW at the release last year. I sent two bottles to a trading partner. He drank one, then tried to trade the other for a King Henry. $4$, they match up. The response he got from multiple people was that because people at the release were able to get 24 bottles and those in the KH distribution area were only able to get 2-3 bottles of King Henry, it was a trade lopsided in his favor and that he should add on his end.

    Most of you guys appear to be arguing that this is a perfectly acceptable practice. This is all sorts of sad, honestly. Both are fantastic beers, but people are so blinded by the attempt to gain an advantage, that both sides miss out on an opportunity to try them.
  31. dvelcich

    dvelcich Feb 6, 2008 Illinois

    Most of the people discussing this (at least not myself or the one's I know in this thread) wouldn't ask more for a KH, they just wouldn't trade one for what your friend was offering. They're not trying to "gain an advantage," they would just rather keep their bottle. We don't have to trade one just because the offer is fair.
    MarkIntihar likes this.
  32. MarkIntihar

    MarkIntihar Mar 17, 2010 Michigan

    It's odd to think about, but this is the "issue" when taste actually starts to play a role in "trade value". Some people (myself included) won't trade certain beers because they are favorites, and other people feed off of this knowledge and hold theirs hostage trying to make traders bid against each other.
  33. Levitation

    Levitation Aug 7, 2009 California

    usually those are the guys who hop into threads saying, "this is too good to trade, it'll take a lot to get it off my hands."

    there are a lot of generous people all around the country, but they sometimes get drowned out by these asshats.
    Kuemmelbrau, cbeer88, drewba and 3 others like this.
  34. MarkIntihar

    MarkIntihar Mar 17, 2010 Michigan

    As opposed to me, who says "this is too good to trade, so fuck you you can't have any" ;)

    This has definitely been my experience as well.
    cavedave and crushedvol like this.
  35. Levitation

    Levitation Aug 7, 2009 California

    Bluecane, crushedvol and MarkIntihar like this.
  36. Franch

    Franch Mar 22, 2011 District of Columbia
    Beer Trader

    it seems BA scale goes from 3.7ish to 5.0, with huge variations coming around 4.0 (decent/okay beer), 4.1 (a pretty good beer), 4.2 (a very good beer), and 4.3+ (a world-class beer)
  37. csano

    csano Sep 21, 2010 Washington

    The scenario I was trying to describe was along the lines of my friend posting an ISO for KH, offering AftW 1:1 and getting responses saying, "I have a KH I'm willing to trade, but you've got to add more," citing the reasons in my previous post.

    The point is, I disagree with the argument that you should put weight on how many bottles were available at a release. This complicates things because, as in the example I provided with my trading partner, you're not always dealing with people who were at the release, and who are, or were at some point in time, in possession of the maximum allotment.
  38. MarkIntihar

    MarkIntihar Mar 17, 2010 Michigan

    While we can perhaps agree that it shouldn't affect what you're willing to trade a bottle for, surely you can understand why someone is much more willing to trade "fairly" when they have a lot of bottles of something versus when they only have one or two, right?
    MordorMongo likes this.
  39. csano

    csano Sep 21, 2010 Washington

    Put it this way. If you swapped the two beers, which do you think would be more in demand? HotD KH or Goose Island AftW? I'd put my money on the latter.

    I don't agree with the volume argument, either. There are way too many variables that go into determining fair values when throwing volumes into the mix. Ingredients, aging, etc.

    This is why I think people should just focus on trading good beers at $4$. That seems to be the simplest way to look at it. Add all of the other factors, and things become way too complicated.
    Kuemmelbrau likes this.
  40. MarkIntihar

    MarkIntihar Mar 17, 2010 Michigan

    I think most of us do. This reeks of an argument between sane people bickering over/justifying the actions of the irrational.
  41. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested May 10, 2012 California

    this argument had an awfully different tone when i was saying the same thing as csano.
    Kuemmelbrau likes this.
  42. csano

    csano Sep 21, 2010 Washington

    Absolutely. But my question is, why should it make a difference? Why should a guy who only has one bottle of a beer be treated differently than someone who has 12?
    Kuemmelbrau likes this.
  43. csano

    csano Sep 21, 2010 Washington

    Obviously. We have no rare beers. :)
    Kuemmelbrau likes this.
  44. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested May 10, 2012 California

    Kuemmelbrau and csano like this.
  45. dvelcich

    dvelcich Feb 6, 2008 Illinois

    Do I really have to offer you $12 of 312 for your AftW for you to understand?
    ChadQuest likes this.
  46. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested May 10, 2012 California

    do you actually think that's a fair comparison?
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