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How much will the trade value of Bolt Cutter drop once it gets into distibution?

Discussion in 'Beer Trading Talk' started by ChadQuest, Nov 17, 2012.

  1. csano

    csano Initiate (0) Sep 21, 2010 Washington

    Put it this way. If you swapped the two beers, which do you think would be more in demand? HotD KH or Goose Island AftW? I'd put my money on the latter.

    I don't agree with the volume argument, either. There are way too many variables that go into determining fair values when throwing volumes into the mix. Ingredients, aging, etc.

    This is why I think people should just focus on trading good beers at $4$. That seems to be the simplest way to look at it. Add all of the other factors, and things become way too complicated.
     
    Kuemmelbrau likes this.
  2. MarkIntihar

    MarkIntihar Initiate (0) Mar 17, 2010 Michigan

    I think most of us do. This reeks of an argument between sane people bickering over/justifying the actions of the irrational.
     
  3. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested Initiate (0) May 10, 2012 California

    this argument had an awfully different tone when i was saying the same thing as csano.
     
    Kuemmelbrau likes this.
  4. csano

    csano Initiate (0) Sep 21, 2010 Washington

    Absolutely. But my question is, why should it make a difference? Why should a guy who only has one bottle of a beer be treated differently than someone who has 12?
     
    Kuemmelbrau likes this.
  5. csano

    csano Initiate (0) Sep 21, 2010 Washington

    Obviously. We have no rare beers. :)
     
    Kuemmelbrau likes this.
  6. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested Initiate (0) May 10, 2012 California

    LEARN FROM ME DONT START MAN
     
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  7. dvelcich

    dvelcich Initiate (0) Feb 6, 2008 Illinois

    Do I really have to offer you $12 of 312 for your AftW for you to understand?
     
    ChadQuest likes this.
  8. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested Initiate (0) May 10, 2012 California

    do you actually think that's a fair comparison?
     
  9. csano

    csano Initiate (0) Sep 21, 2010 Washington

    I said good beers, didn't I? ;)
     
    Kuemmelbrau and dvelcich like this.
  10. Sarlacc83

    Sarlacc83 Initiate (0) Mar 2, 2008 Oregon

    The funny thing about this post is that since KH had a bottle count of 12K (+?) and Adam FtW had ~1800, you're almost making the same trade. :p

    More seriously, people aren't looking at those values, but at: Well, I only got 2 or 3, so I must have whales for it. Which isn't the fault of the other trader - it's the fault of the company spreading the beer over too wide a region.
     
    dvelcich likes this.
  11. Auracom

    Auracom Zealot (573) Nov 5, 2010 Illinois
    Beer Trader

    KH is such a troll beer.

    Let's get back to talking about Bolt Cutter value.
     
  12. eyeenjoybeer

    eyeenjoybeer Initiate (0) Feb 18, 2011 Seychelles

    I don't think that companies are to blame for my lack of trade ammo.
     
  13. Sarlacc83

    Sarlacc83 Initiate (0) Mar 2, 2008 Oregon

    I blame my wife.

    But it is counter-intuitive that a wide distribution plan, which should get a lot of bottles into many hands, ends up 'heightening' the trade value.
     
    eyeenjoybeer likes this.
  14. kscaldef

    kscaldef Initiate (0) Jun 11, 2010 Oregon
    Beer Trader

    I certainly understand how it affects the psychology of the "seller". But, on the other hand, in no way does it make the beer any more desirable to the "buyer". This asymmetry is, I think, at the core of this disagreement. I've never gone after KH because to me it's an admittedly very tasty, but still 10,000+ bottle beer that has somehow gone crazy on the forums in a way that violates both rational economic theory and "hey, can't we all just agree to share some good beer and not be assholes". So, I decide to just drink the also very tasty beer that I have, rather than trade it at well off from $4$,r4r and become a "Portlanders don't trade". ;)

    In conclusion: it's just beer and if it causes you stress you're doing it wrong. Because doing it right is drinking the damn thing :D
     
  15. 3rdto1st

    3rdto1st Initiate (0) Dec 1, 2011 California

    This is what everybody should remember, after all, it's just beer.
     
  16. Auracom

    Auracom Zealot (573) Nov 5, 2010 Illinois
    Beer Trader

    wat i thought u were supposed to trade then cellar for many years until it drinks real good.
     
  17. Romulux

    Romulux Initiate (0) Jan 28, 2008 Michigan

    We have to overcharge for our "Shelf Walez" on the open market! Our f'ing regulars get the first few "at cost!"

    How else can I "win" at trading?

    (sarcastic trading humor)
     
  18. dvelcich

    dvelcich Initiate (0) Feb 6, 2008 Illinois

    Oh, so what you're saying is there are other aspects of value that go into making the decision to trade a beer. I see.

    I completely agree, but it's always the buyer complaining.

    I admit I got caught up in this argument, but not because I care about valuing beers. I just can't believe some people don't get it. I've never had a problem figuring out the value of a beer and trading for it accordingly. When I want something, I research to see what it cost, how many bottles were made, and how hard it was to get, and I make an offer. If I didn't get it on the first try, I obviously didn't offer enough.
     
  19. goodbetterbestbested

    goodbetterbestbested Initiate (0) May 10, 2012 California

    yeah, taste and bottle count.

    remember when you accused me of "burying my head in the sand" lol
     
  20. Levitation

    Levitation Initiate (0) Aug 7, 2009 California

    i've noticed a handful of my drinking buddies have dropped their midwest trade partners, figuring the shitshow isn't worth it.

    now, i liked bramble (probably the only person around who did) so i'm upset to hear cherry may be a pita.
     
  21. Franch

    Franch Devotee (445) Mar 22, 2011 District of Columbia
    Beer Trader

    bramble's the best variant that's been released since rare.
     
    ASUBeer and Levitation like this.
  22. pepsican

    pepsican Aspirant (258) Nov 5, 2007 Iowa
    Beer Trader

    We got in some cases today but they sold out within a few hours even at $22. As far as trade value, trade it for whatever you think is worth it. It's a pretty simple system.
     
  23. jbck109

    jbck109 Aspirant (264) May 30, 2010 Michigan
    Beer Trader

    One should do it, maybe they should throw in Dave too
     
  24. Levitation

    Levitation Initiate (0) Aug 7, 2009 California

    i'm not sure about passing on, but they certainly saw the consequences in the boxes. a couple of bcbs, a couple of kbs, no king henry, one bcbcs....

    in exchange for multiple beatifications (which they drove up to get), multiple ffacs (ditto), fda, ba speedway, churchill's, alpine.... double daisy cutter and random steel toe weren't exactly making up the deficit.

    i don't think there's any animosity involved, but those just aren't worthwhile relationships. they're thinking they might as well drink local for cheaper. a conclusion i reached years ago.
     
    OtisCampbell likes this.
  25. Sarlacc83

    Sarlacc83 Initiate (0) Mar 2, 2008 Oregon

    Only if you have a son by that name or your wife is getting implants.
     
    Levitation likes this.
  26. Levitation

    Levitation Initiate (0) Aug 7, 2009 California

    yeah, i want to stress they aren't calling their trading partners stingy.

    though much of this talk was before the latest rumblings that bcbs won't make it to ca.
     
  27. t8000shx

    t8000shx Disciple (318) Mar 2, 2004 New York
    Subscriber Beer Trader

    I'm quite sure you use that phrase only to bait someone into calling you out on using it incorrectly, just so you can then point out that you in fact use it correctly and most people just don't understand what the expression means.

    Or if that's not the only reason, it certainly weighs heavily.
     
  28. eyeenjoybeer

    eyeenjoybeer Initiate (0) Feb 18, 2011 Seychelles

    So Levitation should strive towards popular ignorance?
    That
    makes
    sense...
     
    vurt and Franch like this.
  29. t8000shx

    t8000shx Disciple (318) Mar 2, 2004 New York
    Subscriber Beer Trader

    Easy chief. I made no recommendations, not even a judgement - just an observation.
     
  30. ChadQuest

    ChadQuest Initiate (0) Mar 4, 2009 Illinois


    Have you seen how people on here review? A/4.5 is the new average.

    "This beer is solid for the style, about middle of the road. 4.2 Sam Adams Triple Bock"
     
  31. Hanzo

    Hanzo Initiate (0) Feb 27, 2012 Virginia

    Looks to be the same at ratebeer, so where do people not do this?
     
  32. ChadQuest

    ChadQuest Initiate (0) Mar 4, 2009 Illinois

    Mike Tinnon's house.

    Beers get rated to an F average.
     
  33. DanGolfs86

    DanGolfs86 Initiate (0) Dec 2, 2010 Illinois

    Speaking as a person from Chicago, who has consumed many KHs, traded many KHs. My opinion comes in a few parts:

    1) KH is a freak of nature, a great beer, but when used as a base unit for assessing trade value it should really be put in a paper bag, taken out back, coated with gasoline and set A-BLAZE!!!!!!!! The King doesn't trade like other beers and it's just a stupid beer to use as a base trade valuation.

    2) It's really a combination of what everyone is saying...
    #lurchingbeast is right, because there are a lot of f-ing people in Chicago who like beer, it is harder to get the limited releases here.
    #Mongo is right (at least imho) if I have 12 bottles of BCBVS and wanted to get some BT and couldn't, I would place more value on the beer i want than the extras i have and thus trade more easily.

    3) For me, and i think for many, the trade value of the beer comes down to a very simple statement "Am I willing to give what i have for what i want to get?" The trade value of a beer will be dictated by the market.

    *The reason KH trades for a ton isn't that Midwesterners are evil hoarding trolls, (sarcasm for my fellow mid-westerners) it's that everyone else in the market was willing to give up two beats for it. If 20 ridiculous trade posts for KH go up and they are all met by crickets then the trade value of KH will go down. Beer Traders take back your freedom and power. If BC Cherry Rye starts to come on the market and the ISO:FT's are ridic, just ignore them, or offer what you think is fair and wait for the market to valuate the beers.

    Now, going back to the question of whether the trade value of Bolt Cutter will go down after it's distro'd, that's a very easy answer...

    If the trading population likes the beer and there are a lot of people who didn't get BC but want to trade for it then...No the value will stay the same or increase.

    If the trading population thinks BC is crap and/or there are not a lot of traders looking for it then the value will go down.
     
    tjohn2401 likes this.
  34. UWBadgerFan4Life

    UWBadgerFan4Life Defender (616) Jul 24, 2012 Wisconsin
    Beer Trader

    New trader question. I just agreed to trade 1 bolt cutter for 1 bottle of Kentucky Dark Star and 1 bottle of BBPt5. Was that dumb?
     
  35. eyeenjoybeer

    eyeenjoybeer Initiate (0) Feb 18, 2011 Seychelles

    How do you feel about it....before we, the uninvolved, tell you how to feel about it?

    If you and the other trader are happy, then it seems like this is all good. If you were coerced by evil forces or if you coerced, then this might be a bad way to go. All the beers involved in your trade are delicious - that is for sure. Also, none of them are particularly easy to get if you live outside of the distribution/release area, other than by trade.
     
  36. ChadQuest

    ChadQuest Initiate (0) Mar 4, 2009 Illinois

    apocalypsezombie likes this.
  37. kscaldef

    kscaldef Initiate (0) Jun 11, 2010 Oregon
    Beer Trader

    I don't think he was intending to be a smart-ass.

    FWIW, that seems like a fair deal to me. In fact, I might say you got the better end of it, but mostly that's because I think BBPt5 is one of the best beers in the world.
     
  38. Levitation

    Levitation Initiate (0) Aug 7, 2009 California

     
    ASUBeer, ChadQuest, wittyname and 3 others like this.
  39. Rempo

    Rempo Initiate (0) Jan 18, 2010 Indiana

    You could've got KDS and BBPt5 for less. He could've got Bolt Cutter for less. You're both terrible traders.
     
  40. dvelcich

    dvelcich Initiate (0) Feb 6, 2008 Illinois

    Let me go back to what I mentioned earlier in the thread. Did you do your research? If I wanted a KDS, I would find out these things (takes 5-10 minutes):

    - 1800 bottles total
    - two per person at the berwery, but it hit distribution
    - $15 at the brewery; $18-$20 retail
    - 94 rating with a good number of reviews and a 4:1 Wants to Gots ratio

    I would then make an offer I thought was fair. I did trade for this, and I offered a BA Hi-Fi:

    - 720 bottles total
    - four per person at the brewery, but no distribution
    - $15
    - 96 rating with a lot of reviews and a 6:1 Wants to Gots ratio

    I guess I didn't "win" that trade, but I wanted the KDS, so I offered something I knew would land it for me, and I was able to land four BA Hi-Fis at once, so I didn't mind letting one go.

    I would say you "won" your trade for sure, but I'm also sure the other guy who made you that offer is happy, or he wouldn't have gone through with it. He must've really wanted to try a Bolt Cutter. Maybe he lives close to the brewery and was able to score more than two KDS, so he didn't mind letting one go. This is where availability plays a role in trading and what we've all been discussing here.
     
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