The Averagely Perfect American IPA Project - Poll #9 - Select % of Carapils

Discussion in 'Homebrewing' started by VikeMan, Jan 22, 2013.

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Select Portion of Carapils in Grain Bill

  1. 1%

    18 vote(s)
    16.4%
  2. 2%

    12 vote(s)
    10.9%
  3. 3%

    25 vote(s)
    22.7%
  4. 4%

    17 vote(s)
    15.5%
  5. 5%

    34 vote(s)
    30.9%
  6. 6%

    2 vote(s)
    1.8%
  7. 7%

    2 vote(s)
    1.8%
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  1. VikeMan

    VikeMan Meyvn (1,419) Jul 12, 2009 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    Now we need to figure out how much Carapils. I recommend thinking about this in the context of the 5% Crystal 40 and the target OG/FG.

    This poll be open for 48 hours.

    If you don't know what this thread is about, please see this thread...
    http://beeradvocate.com/community/threads/the-averagely-perfect-american-ipa-project.59552/

    If you have issues with or suggestions for methodologies used in this project, please Beer Mail me.
    Let's keep the threads themselves on topic to the question at hand (not about how you would have asked the question differently). Thanks!

    The Averagely Perfect American IPA Recipe so far...
    5 Gallons
    Target ABV: 6.5%
    Target OG: 1.062
    Target FG: 1.012
    Apparent Attenuation: 81%
    Two-Row Brewer's Malt
    Carapils
    Crystal 40 (5%)
     
  2. VikeMan

    VikeMan Meyvn (1,419) Jul 12, 2009 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    That's just weird. First I somehow posted this one before I finished filling it out, then my follow-up message explaining this disappeared. Here we go again... if you want 8%, 9%, or 10%+, please write-in and I will count it. Also, poll will not automatically close in 48 hours (because it posted before I set that), but I'll record the results after 48 hours.
     
  3. AlCaponeJunior

    AlCaponeJunior Initiate (0) May 21, 2010 Texas

    I would just like to point out that if you abbreviate, we're making the APA IPA project. :rolling_eyes:

    For a moment, let's assume 5% carapils wins, and we use US-05.

    Plugged into beersmith 9 lbs 2-row, 8 oz C40, and 8 oz carapils, you (obviously) get 90%, 5%, 5%.

    This isn't enough on my equipment to hit the target OG.

    Going to the nearest ounce, which is how I have to order it from the LHBS, I would need to use 11 lbs 2-row, and 9 oz each carapils and C-40, for 90.5%, 4.7%, 4.7%, which gives me 1.062 and 6.4% ABV, est FG 1.011. Close enough.

    I am not complaining, BTW. I am just pointing out that everyone's equipment is a little different, and thus the exact same ingredient batch doesn't necessarily give you the same beer on different systems.

    I am assuming we will adjust for this as appropriate in order to hit the targets and come as close to possible to the project's intent.

    Cheers!

    al
     
  4. VikeMan

    VikeMan Meyvn (1,419) Jul 12, 2009 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    I would assume people would treat the final recipe the same way they would treat any other recipe, and adapt it to their own system efficiency, round numbers off where necessary, etc.
     
  5. mattbk

    mattbk Devotee (467) Dec 12, 2011 New York

    5% carapils? low temp, long mash...
     
    nozferatu46 and samtallica like this.
  6. samtallica

    samtallica Initiate (0) Jul 22, 2010 North Carolina

    5%! We all know you have to use equal parts crystal and carapils! :wink:
     
  7. AlCaponeJunior

    AlCaponeJunior Initiate (0) May 21, 2010 Texas

    Just a note regarding some of the debate going on in this project:

    I think that Vikeman kinda knew how this would come out when he started. It wouldn't be perfect for anybody, but it would be pretty "average" for the results you could expect from a project like this. Cheers to Vikeman for this great idea!

    That being said, obviously perfection isn't the goal here, averagely perfect is. The thing is, perfection in the beer world is often measured at the extremes. If there was truly a "perfectly average" beer, then we wouldn't have PtY, PtE, Heady Topper, Dark Lord variants, BCBCS, and Zombie Dust as the top rated beers. All of those are pretty extreme, as are almost all of the top beers. We'd have some middle of the road, average beer as the top beer instead. It's almost an oxymoron to find the averagely perfect beer. Could the recipe for PtE even exist as the averagely perfect IPA? I don't think so.

    I realized this morning that I will probably have to use a bit more crystal in my version than I might otherwise use. I'll need 18oz total if 5% wins this poll. So be it. I'm brewing it anyway.

    It's gonna cost me perhaps $23-$28, including yeast, hops, and grains, plus the time and effort to produce it. It will probably make a damn fine IPA. Even if it doesn't make a world class beer, I'm an amateur anyway, and my own recipe might also not come out PtE or Heady Topper quality either. And hey, so be that too. You brew and learn. And drink the results.

    So don't get me wrong, the debates are fascinating, and I've learned already from the discussions on these threads. Keep it up.

    But don't lose sight of the prize, which might be an average version of the middle-est of the road IPA.

    :grinning:
     
    meatballj626j likes this.
  8. samtallica

    samtallica Initiate (0) Jul 22, 2010 North Carolina

    I don't know dude, the malt bill so far looks pretty close to Blind Pig and that is damn good. This beer is going to be about the hops.
     
    AlCaponeJunior likes this.
  9. sergeantstogie

    sergeantstogie Aspirant (202) Nov 16, 2010 Washington

    Wait! Now that you mention it....I have never seen Vikeman and Vinnie in the same room together, and their "names" both begin with V. Dude.....Can it be???
     
    AlCaponeJunior likes this.
  10. Jefeipa

    Jefeipa Initiate (0) May 6, 2009 Arizona

    Is there going to be a poll for the hops too? That will be a hard one to poll
     
  11. pweis909

    pweis909 Meyvn (1,453) Aug 13, 2005 Wisconsin
    Supporter Subscriber

    There's already been a pre-poll in the "What hops are hard to get right now" thread.
     
    NiceFly likes this.
  12. scurvy311

    scurvy311 Disciple (343) Dec 3, 2005 Louisiana

    The hops poll shouldnt be a cluster fuggle. At least it will be limited to hops common to American IPAs. That will help. A list of common, hopefully available hops with an opportunity to vote that will determine an outcome (name, amount, and time). No doubt some heated discussions will ensue though.
     
    NiceFly likes this.
  13. MADhombrewer

    MADhombrewer Initiate (0) Jun 4, 2008 Oregon

    Damn. Missed #8. Thanks.
     
  14. NiceFly

    NiceFly Aspirant (275) Dec 22, 2011 Tajikistan

    Once I started buying in bulk I found myself trying some different percentages of grain than I normally
    would toward the end of the supply. I hit on some interesting combinations that I would not have found otherwise so I do not think this is a bad thing.

    I also give VikeMike the thumbs up for taking this on.

    Funny:rolling_eyes:
     
    sergeantstogie likes this.
  15. mattbk

    mattbk Devotee (467) Dec 12, 2011 New York

    i sense a runoff.
     
  16. FATC1TY

    FATC1TY Moderator (1,228) Feb 12, 2012 Georgia
    Subscriber Beer Trader

    I'm waiting for the explosion that is the hop vote myself.

    The grist has turned out... somewhat... average. :wink:
     
    AlCaponeJunior likes this.
  17. a10t2

    a10t2 Initiate (0) Mar 6, 2006 Colorado

    What happens if the recipe targets turn out to be difficult or impossible to hit? As of now, it looks like we'll end up with 8-10% crystal malt, no simple sugars, AND 81% apparent attenuation.
     
  18. GreenKrusty101

    GreenKrusty101 Defender (675) Dec 4, 2008 Nevada

    We haven't even selected the yeast yet...have we?
     
  19. pweis909

    pweis909 Meyvn (1,453) Aug 13, 2005 Wisconsin
    Supporter Subscriber

    Accept the challenge. Use the tools in your arsenal. Mash low. Pitch big. Drive the fermentation temperature. If that doesn't work, make alternate dilutions with pure grain alcohol and water to dilute to final gravity while maintaining ABV.

    This one allegedly managed to get 79% attenuation with more than 1.5x the % of crystal malt and no sugar subbed in for base malt:
    http://www.homebrewtalk.com/f12/can-you-brew-recipe-green-flash-west-coast-ipa-175363/
     
  20. JimmyTango

    JimmyTango Initiate (0) Aug 1, 2011 California

  21. a10t2

    a10t2 Initiate (0) Mar 6, 2006 Colorado

    It doesn't look like it, but that wouldn't matter if the attenuation target ends up being above the attenuation limit of the wort. We could do a multi-step mash to make sure, but how "average" is that?

    Mostly it was a hypothetical question: What happens if the results of later votes invalidate earlier votes?
     
  22. AlCaponeJunior

    AlCaponeJunior Initiate (0) May 21, 2010 Texas

    I highly doubt those targets will be much of a problem for most of us.
     
    samtallica likes this.
  23. kjyost

    kjyost Initiate (0) May 4, 2008 Manitoba (Canada)

    Average is 3.3 right now.

    Just saying for an "Averagely" project a plurality is a bad methodology... Says the old man that's now 0-9
     
  24. VikeMan

    VikeMan Meyvn (1,419) Jul 12, 2009 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    Average does not necessarily mean the mean. Also, I said nothing about plurality (i.e. mode) for this poll. The polls are all different, depending on the nature of the question/data. As it happens, I will have a good look at the distribution when this one is done and decide what to do with the data.

    Here, check this out. Me talking to myself again...
     
  25. kjyost

    kjyost Initiate (0) May 4, 2008 Manitoba (Canada)

    Than which "mean" do you mean? Arithmetic or geometric or some other one I have never heard of?

    You seemed to indicate it might matter before...

    Just keeping you honest, and poiting out the flaws in the idea of "average" and "most" in a poll that has many, many choices (just look at the results in any country that doesn't have a binary choice for leader)

    And yet somehow asking questions and being difficult in public can gain more traction (while perhaps creating negative perceptions), while forcing people to attribute their decisions in public. Too late now, but I assumed all grains would have been given a binary choice.
     
  26. sergeantstogie

    sergeantstogie Aspirant (202) Nov 16, 2010 Washington

    Are you just trying to be difficult? The guy asked that if you have an issue to beermail him. Beyond that if you have some major Sheldon type issue with it, no one is saying you have to participate. For the record I have no idea what a Mean or a Mode is and don't care. But I appreciate someone (Vikeman) breathing life into the homebrew forum.
     
    rmalinowski4 and NiceFly like this.
  27. pweis909

    pweis909 Meyvn (1,453) Aug 13, 2005 Wisconsin
    Supporter Subscriber

    There are all kinds of capricious ways these polls could have been done. We could argue until the sun goes down about which produces the truest central tendencies and the best beer recipe. The "averagely perfect" moniker strikes me as a play on words ("perfectly average") and possibly not meant to be taken as a literal translation.
     
    NiceFly likes this.
  28. VikeMan

    VikeMan Meyvn (1,419) Jul 12, 2009 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    As of 9:31-ish AM, the poll is closed. Any subsequent votes will be ignored. Here are/were the numbers...

    1% 17 vote(s) 17.2%
    2% 11 vote(s) 11.1%
    3% 25 vote(s) 25.3%
    4% 14 vote(s) 14.1%
    5% 30 vote(s) 30.3%
    6% 2 vote(s) 2.0%
    7% 0 vote(s) 0.0%

    Interesting distribution. Not a nice bell curve, but I think it's telling a story. I need to look at these in a spreadsheet before I call a winner.
     
  29. VikeMan

    VikeMan Meyvn (1,419) Jul 12, 2009 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    Okay, the numbers in my opinion say the central tendency is 3%. It's both the mean and the median, and pretty close to being the mode. 3% Carapils. Next up... yeast strain.
     
    pweis909 and AlCaponeJunior like this.
  30. samtallica

    samtallica Initiate (0) Jul 22, 2010 North Carolina

    So are we changing how the polls are decided now?
     
  31. leedorham

    leedorham Defender (698) Apr 27, 2006 Washington

    Vikeman is the decider. He decides.

    [​IMG]
     
  32. pweis909

    pweis909 Meyvn (1,453) Aug 13, 2005 Wisconsin
    Supporter Subscriber

    I'm curious what you all think about your abilities to perceive differences in that arise from a small difference in an ingredient like carapils. Do you think you could detect a difference in two IPAs in which the carapils differed by 2% (say 3% vs. 5%, as they are the two highest vote getters), and do you think that difference would lead to a strong preference for one over the other? Assume the only thing that varies is the ratio of carapils to base malt, and any other specialty grains are held constant (for example, 5% crystal 40).

    I personally have not brewed enough recipes repeatedly so I am uncertain. My guess, if I were to participate in that experiment, is that I might convince myself that there is a difference, but I have a hard time believing that difference would lead to a strong personal preference. Maybe a way to think about the question is might this difference turn a fantastic beer into a merely good beer, or a good beer into an average beer?
     
  33. samtallica

    samtallica Initiate (0) Jul 22, 2010 North Carolina

    Hey, that's fine, it just seems odd to change it halfway through the process. Plus, I thought he said he didn't want to influence the recipe.

    I doubt I could tell the difference. I'll brew the beer either way, I was just questioning why the option with the most votes didn't win since that is the way it worked in all the other polls.
     
  34. AlCaponeJunior

    AlCaponeJunior Initiate (0) May 21, 2010 Texas

    Works for me Vike! Break out the yeasties!
     
  35. mnstorm99

    mnstorm99 Initiate (0) May 11, 2007 Minnesota

    He has been looking at mean, median and mode since the first poll...and I think they usually are coming back with the same result.
     
    NiceFly likes this.
  36. mattbk

    mattbk Devotee (467) Dec 12, 2011 New York

    I agree with the decision - every distribution may drive a different numerical method for determining the best choice - for normal distributions mean, median, mode will all indicate the same value - this being a non-normal (tri-modal) distribution, another method is called for - as both the mean and the median is ~ 3%, it makes sense to go with 3%, even though the mode is 5%. It would have been much harder if 30 people voted for 10% instead of 5%...
     
  37. GreenKrusty101

    GreenKrusty101 Defender (675) Dec 4, 2008 Nevada

    The distribution was pretty skewed...that's what an electoral college is for : )
     
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