This Mexican Beer Is Now Even Bigger Than Budweiser

Discussion in 'Beer News & Releases' started by officerbill, Jan 27, 2020.

  1. officerbill

    officerbill Devotee (452) Feb 9, 2019 New York
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    "It's been two years since Budweiser fell out of the top three largest beers by off-premise sales in the U.S. Now, it's suffered another ignominy: After yet another year of falling sales, the one-time King of Beers has seen one of the giants of the Mexican beer craze pass it up.

    The industry analysts at IRI say that Anheuser-Busch InBev's (NYSE:BUD) Budweiser saw off-premise sales fall 4% in 2019, which even at $1.8 billion, doesn't qualify for a top-five ranking. It's enough to leave the brewer crying in its beer."

    Beer Sales % Change
    Bud Light $5 billion (5%)
    Michelob Ultra $2.3 billion 18.2%
    Coors Light $2.2 billion (1.5%)
    Modelo Especial $2.1 billion 18.8%
    Miller Light $2.0 billion 1.6%
    Budweiser $1.8 billion (4%)
    Corona Extra $1.8 billion 2.4%
    https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/01/25/this-mexican-beer-is-now-even-bigger-than-budweise.aspx

    Nothing we weren't aware of. Hispanics are a desirable demo, Mexican beers are gaining surprising market shares, yet another hard seltzer is being introduced, but looking at it from an investment angle.
     
  2. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Poo-Bah (4,368) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
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    Beyond Budweiser there was some other interesting aspects to the above list:

    AB is getting hurt by the continually declining sales of Budweiser but it seems that Michelob Ultra sales are growing in a very manner.

    I was also a bit surprised to see that Modelo is outselling Corona. I suppose either way Constellation brands wins.

    Cheers!
     
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  3. zid

    zid Meyvn (1,411) Feb 15, 2010 New York
    Society Trader

    I'd like to see how that list changes when it's ranked by volume rather than dollar sales.
     
  4. eppCOS

    eppCOS Meyvn (1,116) Jun 27, 2015 Colorado
    Society

    Not totally surprising given the way that beer conglomerates operate.
    I'm more interested in supporting local versions of Chicanx/Latinx beer production, since I miss the ones that I visited in Mexico City a few years back. Closest (quality) one we have here is
    https://www.cerveceriacolorado.com/

    Thanks for posting the original story, thought, @officerbill ! Cheers...
     
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  5. officerbill

    officerbill Devotee (452) Feb 9, 2019 New York
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    We don't get much Modelo advertising up here, but the Corona ads (beaches, outdoor parties, etc) seem to push it as a “warm weather” beer. I could picture a Modelo negra in January, but not a Corona.
     
  6. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Poo-Bah (4,368) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
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    I have seen a lot of Modelo TV ads for Modelo Especial. The 'older' ads featured a Hispanic fighter pilot, a Hispanic UFC fighter, etc.

    Their more recent TV ad features Christopher Mullins (3rd generation Irish American). There is a Philly connection with Christopher Mullins:

    https://www.phillyvoice.com/mcgillins-olde-ale-house-owner-stars-in-modelo-beer-commercial/

    Given the rate of sales growth for Modelo I would guess this TV advertising is paying off?

    Cheers!
     
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  7. jesskidden

    jesskidden Poo-Bah (1,944) Aug 10, 2005 New Jersey
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    Yup, and since IRI's figures are only off-premise sales, I'd imagine Budweiser on-premise sales, both packaged and keg, might push it back over Modelo Especial (for a little while longer).

    Around 2002, IIRC. (Is that "many years" ago? Not to me. :grin:)

    Of course, that one didn't hurt so much, since it was Bud Light that did it.

    Well, that might be a bit of an exaggeration...:rolling_eyes:

    (Where do they think Modelo Especial and Corona Extra come from? The back room next to the kitchen of a little adobe-brick cantina in the Sonoran desert?)
     
    #7 jesskidden, Jan 27, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2020
  8. oldbean

    oldbean Disciple (362) Jun 30, 2005 Massachusetts

    Amazing things happen when you gear your advertising to people other than frat bros.
     
  9. jesskidden

    jesskidden Poo-Bah (1,944) Aug 10, 2005 New Jersey
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    To further illustrate @zid point, here's the IRI data for both brands from 2018, with my math's figurin' of IRI's "per case" at the end.
    [​IMG]

    So using the same case price for '19, it'd be 83.4M cases of Bud vs. 68.3M cases of Modelo.
    (Man I hate when beer stats are in "cases" or "CE's" [case equivalent = 2.25 gallons] or "gallons"... I like to think in barrels. :grin:)
     
    #9 jesskidden, Jan 27, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2020
  10. Oktoberfiesta

    Oktoberfiesta Aspirant (281) Nov 16, 2013 New Mexico
    Trader

    Modelo tastes like Budweiser/Bud light but is twice as much. I'll never understand consumers. I guess there's a fancy import angle at play. Sad times for bud because there is nothing they can do about it.

    At the same time, I've never seen a Michelob ultra drinker drink just one. So the calorie angle is complete bull shit too.
     
  11. HaoleBoy

    HaoleBoy Devotee (401) Mar 3, 2017 California
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    the only beer on that list I've not had is Modelo ... and no plans to change that.
     
  12. thesherrybomber

    thesherrybomber Initiate (154) Jun 13, 2017 California
    Trader

    Why?
     
  13. HaoleBoy

    HaoleBoy Devotee (401) Mar 3, 2017 California
    Society

    uh, I don't like Mexican lagers?
     
  14. zid

    zid Meyvn (1,411) Feb 15, 2010 New York
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    I'm not making a case for Modelo Especial over another beer, but pale adjunct lagers taste different from each other. IPAs taste different from each other. It's safe to say that many people on BeerAdvocate buy some IPAs that cost twice as much as other IPAs.
     
  15. nc41

    nc41 Poo-Bah (2,325) Sep 25, 2008 North Carolina
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    My last 3 12 pack buys have been Mexican Lagers, I happen to think they’re a bit nicer to drink than Budweiser, Coors, or Miller. I don’t really drink any true light lager like Miller Lite or Bud Light. The advertising is increasing I believe, Corona has always been well advertised, but Modelo is also getting air time, so sales go up. In contrast I rarely see a Miller High Life commercial, rarely a Budweiser, Bud Light is well advertised so the sales are good. I like clean crisp lagers, I think the Mexican versions of AAL are a bit better, but that’s only my opinion there.
     
  16. Alexmc2

    Alexmc2 Zealot (535) Jul 29, 2006 Massachusetts
    Society

    Personally, I dislike Budweiser because of the acetaldehyde that I seem to be extremely sensitive to. Not in an allergy kind of way, just very detectable at low levels to me and makes the beer unenjoyable. So if I'm doing a mass market lager that isn't something local (Jack's Abby for example) - I'm probably turning to Modelo.
     
    officerbill likes this.
  17. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Poo-Bah (4,368) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society

    Yes, Budweiser is reported to have a slight green apple flavor. I personally have not had a Budweiser in a long time (over a decade?) and I can't recall is I picked up on it.

    In case you are interested in knowing this, the green apple flavor is an ester that is produced during the fermentation process (and AB yeast thing). The acetaldehyde levels of Budweiser is well below the perception level.

    Cheers!

    @honkey
     
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  18. honkey

    honkey Zealot (579) Aug 28, 2010 Arizona
    Society Industry

    FWIW, I've seen AB's claim that it's not acetaldehyde, but I had 2 professors that both previously worked for Anheuser Busch and they were doing a joint presentation on off flavors for our class. They stood in front of a class of 40 brewers and declared that Budweiser has acetaldehyde. Maybe that was just the belief at the time they worked there and they hadn't yet figured out that it was an ester, but one of them even went as far as to say that he has a reaction to acetaldehyde that makes his face flush and that a single Budweiser has that effect on him. I wouldn't be surprised either way to learn that AB lied about the acetaldehyde or that my professors were wrong and working off of old information. Budweiser is not my choice for AAL's in part because of that flavor.
     
  19. jesskidden

    jesskidden Poo-Bah (1,944) Aug 10, 2005 New Jersey
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    Ex-AB, ex-Stone brewmaster Mitch Steele (from one of his his Hop Tripper articles):
     
  20. HouseofWortship

    HouseofWortship Crusader (752) May 3, 2016 Illinois
    Trader

    I'm not going to say Mexican beers are all the rage today, but all I keep hearing about on the news it some new variant called Corona Virus....
     
  21. Ranbot

    Ranbot Savant (907) Nov 27, 2006 Pennsylvania
    Society

    I agree with @zid above that there are differences in flavor between AALs. However, I personally find the differences to be relatively slight and there are so many inexpensive AALs to choose from that I also don't understand choosing one with the high import prices of Mexican beer. Especially considering that Mexico isn't that that far away and the two countries have relatively good trade relations, and probably aren't impacting the price much. It's all about convincing consumers it's a higher quality product worth spending more for. What also surprises me is, generally speaking, US consumers do not associate Mexico with high quality products (whether that's deserved is separate debate, but it's a common stereotype), but Mexican beer makers flipped that stereotype for beer.
     
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  22. jesskidden

    jesskidden Poo-Bah (1,944) Aug 10, 2005 New Jersey
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    Cheap Chinese knock-off ---- and those hangovers (they'll kill ya)!
     
  23. bsp77

    bsp77 Poo-Bah (2,265) Apr 27, 2008 Minnesota
    Society

    Modelo does NOT taste like Budweiser. That speaks more to your taste buds than "consumers".

    And I never knew it outsold Corona, which is good, cuz it should.
     
  24. Bitterbill

    Bitterbill Poo-Bah (6,825) Sep 14, 2002 Wyoming
    Society Trader

    I enjoy Modelo Especial occasionally on draught. Since that's an option, I never buy it packaged.
     
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  25. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Poo-Bah (4,368) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society

    Randy, I am 100% with you here. Why people are willing to pay a premium for an AAL brewed in Mexico is just nuts IMO.

    If I am in a mood for an AAL a less expensive beer like Hamm's or an AAL from Yuengling is what I buy.

    Cheers!
     
  26. MistaRyte

    MistaRyte Zealot (530) Jan 14, 2008 Virginia
    Trader

    The DosEquisvirus, Solvirus, and Pacificavirus are far less newsworthy
     
  27. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Poo-Bah (4,368) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society

    Does Constellation Brands have a TM lawsuit case here!?!:thinking_face:

    Cheers!
     
  28. HouseofWortship

    HouseofWortship Crusader (752) May 3, 2016 Illinois
    Trader

    [​IMG]
    "I don't always get sick, but when I do...it's the DosEquisvirus."
     
  29. Ranbot

    Ranbot Savant (907) Nov 27, 2006 Pennsylvania
    Society

    They probably should have jumped on that in the 1950's when the coronavirus* was discovered.

    *- refers to a large family of hundreds of similar virus strains, not a specific virus.
     
  30. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Poo-Bah (4,368) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society

    Aw, man! Timing is everything!?!:flushed:

    Cheers!
     
    Ranbot likes this.
  31. Crusader

    Crusader Disciple (302) Feb 4, 2011 Sweden

    I wonder when one of the major US brands will run an ad about a beer truck accidentally crossing into Mexico before realizing the mistake and in the process turning a humble American beer into a sought after import that flies off the shelf (cue montage). The ad could end with a convoy of trucks making the same detour and then some slogan about being brewed in the US and still being muy refrescante (cue image of cold glass of beer in sunny surroundings).
     
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  32. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Poo-Bah (4,368) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society

    Wouldn’t it just be easier to use a Mexican inspired brand name and place images of Palm Trees on their labels!?!

    [​IMG]

    And maybe shoot a short TV ad which illustrates Sunshine!



    Cheers!
     
  33. ZAP

    ZAP Poo-Bah (4,242) Dec 1, 2001 Minnesota
    Society

    How do you rank your basic Mexican AAL's? What would your top 10 list look like?
     
    nc41 likes this.
  34. mikeinportc

    mikeinportc Meyvn (1,034) Nov 4, 2015 New York
    Society

    Haven't had Especial (that I remember) , but Negra surprised me by being not bad.
    I don't get that . To me, it's a licking-wet-cardboard taste & feel at finish & beyond, that turns me off it. I've also gotten that with Coors & a few others ( I forgot which exact ones) .
     
    thesherrybomber likes this.
  35. nc41

    nc41 Poo-Bah (2,325) Sep 25, 2008 North Carolina
    Society Trader

    On my list Carta Blanco, Tecate, and Negro Modelo and it’s lighter brother Especial are the ones I usually buy. It’s been so long since my last Corona I’d hesitate to say anything about it, but a clear bottle in a lighted case gives me pause, and it’s $5 more than Tecate which is also the least expensive of the bunch. Tecate is also $3-4 more expensive than PBR. For the most part Corona is equal to more expensive than Bud/Miller/ Coors, depending on sales.
     
    officerbill likes this.
  36. officerbill

    officerbill Devotee (452) Feb 9, 2019 New York
    Society Trader

    You were saying?
    From USAToday
    The coronavirus has nothing to do with Corona beer. But, some people seem to think so.

    "The alcoholic beverage from Mexico showed a surge in Google searches in the past week, along with the term “corona beer virus” and “beer virus.”

    In the United States, Google Trends calculated that 57% of the people that searched one of those terms searched for “beer virus” and the remaining 43% searched for “corona beer virus.”"
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...on-google-trends-as-virus-spreads/4606997002/

    In rough order: Dos Equis amber, Sol, Modela negra, Pacifica, Dos Equis, Modela especial
    Corona isn't even on the list
     
    #36 officerbill, Jan 29, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2020
  37. rgordon

    rgordon Meyvn (1,015) Apr 26, 2012 North Carolina

    True. One may get diarrhea, but they won't kill you.
     
  38. Domingo

    Domingo Poo-Bah (2,637) Apr 23, 2005 Colorado
    Society

    For what it's worth, I think normal Modelo is head and shoulders more flavorful than Budweiser. I'm not saying it's universally better, but I feel like there's more depth and the flavor comes across as bolder when consumed side-by-side. It isn't exactly a Heineken or Stella, but it's bolder than Bud, which is the most neutral of the major US macros IMO.
    When compared to the other Mexican macro lagers, I'd say it's bolder than most of those, too. I won't count Bohemia, Dos XX Ambar, or Negra Modelo (different animals), but I favor it over normal Dos XX, Pacifico, Corona, Sol, Carta Blanca, etc. The only exception is Tecate, which has a very unique flavor to me. I bet I could pick Tecate out of 100 macro lagers. It's not necessarily better, but it's different.
     
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  39. HouseofWortship

    HouseofWortship Crusader (752) May 3, 2016 Illinois
    Trader


    You have to wonder if somehow the misinformation is being propagated by their competitors...
     
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  40. jesskidden

    jesskidden Poo-Bah (1,944) Aug 10, 2005 New Jersey
    Society Trader

    That'd be a real pisser, wouldn't it? But something like that would never happen... Oh, wait.
    [​IMG]