Disagree, they are not different, they are both beer. There are only a certain amount of beer drinkers, they drink either BMC or craft. In order for craft to continue expanding, they will need an increase in people drinking their beer. A lot of those people must be converts from BMC to continue the growth, not just new drinkers turning 21 or new beer drinkers converting from wine and such. If the overall number of craft drinkers does not increase in proportion the the number of new breweries and new beers, there will be attrition in the industry as @threeviews said. Supply and demand.