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Why do Bruery beers trade at discount to $4$?

Discussion in 'Beer Trading Talk' started by concealed, Jan 27, 2014.

  1. StGabe

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    It's volume, pure and simple. Hoarder beers trade very well because they're low volume versions of the Reserve beers (and FWIW think that >1k Hoarder's estimate is way too high). Mocha Wednesday and Wineification, are "just BT variants" (albeit really good ones) but MW trades quite well (seems to be roughly equivalent to a DDG) and Wineification is more or less an instant whale.

    It's not quality. The Bruery beers are awesome. The fact that people bitch so much about the few beers that were off last year is just an indication of how high expectations are with the Bruery. They've got a 11 beers in the top 250 here on BA which is the same number as Cantillon and more than any other brewery.

    It's not price. These are expensive to produce beers and are not that far off of similar offerings when you consider the society discount. For example most Bruery sours are $17 which compares very favorably against Cascade Sours that are $20-$30. Sure you can point out examples of beers that cost less (e.g. New Glarus) but I think most of those examples would rightfully be considered "cheap".

    Estimates of 1k+ Hoarders are too high, FWIW.
     
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  2. tbadiuk

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    There were 291 (going by memory, it was just under 300) HS in the first year and 442 in the 2nd. That makes less than 600 bottles of Wineificaiton released to HS for example.
     
  3. prdstmnky

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    There are certainly more than 11 HF beers in the top 250
     
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  4. StGabe

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    You're right, I missed that. My point stands, however. People conflate the fact that Bruery are easier to acquire, and therefore less valued, with a judgement against their quality.
     
  5. Purpleman

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    The force was close on HS, way off on RS!

    The numbers just came in, via a text messageā€¦..

    2200 Reserve
    600 Hoarder
     
  6. BearsOnAcid

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    Their super rare highly acclaimed stuff seems to trade well but all the other ones are overpriced, flooding the market and I don't think they are very good.

    This is just my guess if the $4$ money thing actually is a problem but this is the first I heard of it.
     
  7. prdstmnky

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    So there's a ton of numbers thrown around in here. Hypothetically, if there are 2000 Reserve and 500 Hoarders, how many Black Tuesdays & Chocolate Rain does that yield?
     
  8. HopsintheSack

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    17,000 bottles of CR, not including PS.

    18,000 bottles of BT, not including PS (if allotments stay the same for 2014). There are also other variables like public sale bottles and bottles in clouded with BT release tickets, ect....
     
  9. drummermattie02

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    I'm old fashioned in this way, but I'd still like to see a source named. Numbers are pretty easy to make up/fudge/etc, and there are certainly members in the community who wouldn't mind seeing Bruery bottle counts over-inflated. Not saying that you are motivated in this way, just that it would be nice to have a complete picture of the facts.
     
  10. Purpleman

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    I'm just passing along facts. Whether anyone wants to believe it, or not thats their decision.
     
  11. Stevedore

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    It's on Wikipedia so it must be TRUE!!!!!1111 ;)
     
  12. drummermattie02

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    And I'm just asking for you to name the source of this information. Absent that, your statement starts to sound a lot less like fact and a lot more like conjecture. I'm not a journalism type, but maybe someone can chime in to explain the importance of being able to cite a source when presenting facts to an audience.

    Frankly, the guys who say they saw a complete list with only 442 names are a lot more credible at this point because at least that isn't hearsay.
     
  13. HopsintheSack

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    hearsay[ heer-sey ]
    noun
    1. unverified, unofficial information gained or acquired from another and not part of one's direct knowledge: I pay no attention to hearsay.
    2. an item of idle or unverified information or gossip; rumor: a malicious hearsay.
     
  14. Jshari223

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    Does the fact that you can buy their main stouts (CR, BT, GM) through preservation society hurt the value of these beers? Does this in turn make other beers with a Bruery label loose trade value as well?

    Not trying to thread shit, I am generally curios if this is a big reason for the devaluing of their product. They do a great job, and are easily one of my favorites.
     
  15. HopsintheSack

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    The value is in the eye of the beholder. If your buying beer to just be currency your doing it wrong IMO.
     
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  16. pmarlowe

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    In 2012, they set a cap at 1000, and then when that filled up, upped the cap to 1500 (which didn't sell out). So 2200 sounds a bit far fetched to me.
     
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  17. BrettHead

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    But when I can get Cantillons shipped to me from Belgium for around the same price as Bruery sours....
     
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  18. nrs207

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    It's not like they're just making krieks, gueuzes, etc. though. SITR variants, beauregarde, things like that are awesome and unlike any cantillon you can get shipped to you. It's not super comparable.
     
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  19. BrettHead

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    agreed. Cantillon > Bruery Sours by a mile
     
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  20. HopsintheSack

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    Thats all subjective. I prefer American wilds, including Bruery sours, more than Cantillons by a far margin.

    **edit** Except Fou Foune, thats like drinking gods golden shower.....glorious...
     
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  21. Xul

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    Agreed, 2013 RS (sold in fall of 2012) didn't sell out at the 1500 cap, so I would assume they maintained that cap for 2014 RS (sold in fall of 2013), or perhaps raised it slightly. Between RS members upgrading to HS or outright not renewing, I would be shocked if they had enough interest to increase membership by 50% in one year.
     
  22. DanH11

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    I think a big reason why they trade as they do is because a large number of traders are members. I know two Hoarders and 5 Reserve Society members. I would't trade for Bruery beer because I can either get all their beers at cost or try them at a tasting. I'm sure I'm not the only one. Also, with any ISO beer, there is pretty much always multiple people offering Bruery beer. I think it comes down to access and the high bottle limit for most beers.
     
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  23. pmoney

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    That's it. I'm going on a hunger strike until we find out how many Hoarders and RS members there are. THIS TRAVESTY CAN NOT CONTINUE!!!!








    :rolleyes:
     
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  24. Anonymous1

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    Can we just leave it at this and have the thread locked:

    The reason Bruery beers trade at a discount to $4$ is because they are overpriced relative to their comparables and none of the bottles are really that exclusive (outside of one or two HS releases).

    Anyone that wants Bruery can get most of the coveted bottles without trading (let alone trading $4$) whether its being a RS member the following year, picking up bottles during the Bruery online sales, or making friends with one of the 2,000+ RS/HS members that don't need their full allocation (which are quite large).
     
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  25. Buck86

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    While this has been true of the past I would wager that it will change this year. The Bruery has stated that allocations would be much lower this year (with more offerings of variety) and have limited most to 3 bottles thus far. Even as a HS member (2x limits), I don't know if 6 of any given sour is going to make me willing to offload anything at a discount or at all but that is just me. You are correct however that there are a ton of RS members out there so finding someone who doesn't have the funds available to max out every beer isn't too tricky but with only 3 of many items I forecast that number dropping.
     
  26. HighLowJack

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    Another factor is that the mechanism in which the 'exclusive' bottles get to people (the societies) makes it much more likely the bottles will end up in the hands of traders.

    For the sake of argument say that 15,000 bottles of Cherry Rye were made. These were distro'd over a huge area and many stores only got a few bottles. Some were probably bought by non traders and even traders may have had a hard time buying a lot.Therefore the number of people who ended up with tradeable quantities was relatively low vs say Chocolate Rain. Even though less bottles were made 100% of them went to people who are into beer enough to pay an annual fee. So a higher amount of them end up on the trading market
     
  27. pmarlowe

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    Who joins the RS just to pick up a couple bottles of RS only Bruery beers?

    I've managed to trade numerous bottles of BT/CR/GM for brewery-only releases. Yes, at a slight discount, but still.
     
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  28. OneBeertoRTA

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    Mainly because CA has the highest percentage of overtly generous traders. Most of us trustee for multiple people back east or in the mid west who over time have also become hoarders. The fact the beer just shows up on your porch sure makes the brews lose their rarity appeal and luster.

    The #pickitupformebro is often limited to The Bruery. When beers like KRE and Murda'd last at their respective brewery's for a while you are hard pressed to find a pickitupformebro and wind up trading an arm and a leg. Kudos to all the generous Ca traders and others for sharing the great brew.
     
  29. HighLowJack

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    though I do agree with this

    beer trading is often some hard to pin down equation with inputs including

    - price
    - quality
    - bottle count
    - ease of purchase
    - ubiquity year after year (is it an annual release?)
    - hype train / luster

    the perfect storm is something like Port Damon, which was not terribly expensive, very high quality, very low bottle count, was a massive pain to purchase for everyone except a few thousand Vermonters, and was only made once.

    so it trades 1:1 with way more expensive bottles.

    compared to that Black Tuesday is more expensive, still high quality, much higher bottle count, much easier to get a hold of, has been made for a few years now, and many people who want it have had it by now. so it trades 1:1 with less expensive bottles
     
  30. Anonymous1

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    Actually me and a few other guys I know. I only did the RS to max out on Chocolate Rain, and it was nice to get a sampler of their sours. Outside of Chocolate Rain, Bruery becomes a tough sell on two bases: value relative to price point and value relative to alternatives.
     
  31. pmarlowe

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    I think the high fixed cost to joining the RS (fee + shipping, if you're out of state) is a barrier for a lot of people. For those who just want to try BT/CR/GM/WC/some of the sours, it makes a lot more sense to just trade for it. Hence there is a decent sized secondary market for a lot of Bruery beers.

    If you truly only joined the RS to get Chocolate Rain, then you guys are paying an exorbitant amount per bottle. I guess that implies you value it at higher than $4$.
     
  32. BearsOnAcid

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    I've traded for 1 bruery beer and maybe ever bought 4 since they've been around. But I've managed to try about 45,937 of the different beers they've made. These bottles are practically overflowing the streets. Show up to any tasting and I bet there will be some noob trying to open up all the allotments he regrets buying.

    After having so many of their beers I can't really blame anyone for not wanting to do $4$. Except for a few flukes, I don't believe the price ever matches the quality.
     
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  33. 4DAloveofSTOUT

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    Nailed it! Exactly!
     
  34. StGabe

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    If Black Tuesday were a one-time release with only 1,300 bottles it would be worth a lot more than VSB. Instead it's a beer that's been around since 2009 with a release of 20k+ bottles per year (no idea what the actual number is but it's in that ballpark). That's the difference, pure and simple. It has nothing to do with being "too boozy" or "low quality". The beer is the #30 top ranked beer on BA at this moment.
     
  35. Earlycsquid

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    Well, to be fair, those year round big stouts happen with most every brewery. Look at what happens next week in Florida or in another month or two over at 3 Floyds. And those numbers are equal to Black Tuesday. Though it wouldn't really be a great 1:1 because of the price difference.

    So yeah, the price is a big factor.
     
  36. pmoney

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    Couldn't disagree more. But then again, that's why it's all subjective.
     
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  37. StGabe

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    I'm not saying your subjective opinion is wrong. I'm saying that the argument you make based on that opinion is wrong. Put aside your personal opinion of BT and take any beer in the top 50 of BA. Any of those beers would be extremely valuable if they only had limited one-off release like VSB. It's not price and it's not quality. It's quantity that makes BT worth less than VSB.

    Similarly, take a beer like VSB and say it gets bumped up to 20k bottle release for the next five years. No matter how good it is, it's trade value is going to plummet.
     
    #77 StGabe, Feb 26, 2014
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2014
  38. HighLowJack

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    keep in mind there are plenty of one off beers that aren't on that list b/c it was a one off.

    I mean, it's Mocha Wednesday a highly rated beer probably around 1,000 bottles? and that's not close to VSB

    there are plenty of other one of stouts, hightly rated, limited quantities, that won't get you to VSB land either
     
  39. StGabe

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    There's definitely more of Mocha Wednesday (along the lines of 3x more), it just got released and it's a variant. It's also trading really well. In fact, I've seen someone throw over $100 of beer at a Mocha Wednesday on here which is the same number that pmoney mentioned for VSB.

    A better comparison would be Wineification which was ~1k bottles and the same limit per person (2). I've seen very few trades go through at all for Wineification and those were for very high end stuff.
     
  40. StGabe

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