"Everybody’s opening a brewery..."

What that blog post misses is the same thing that was missed by the original article that triggered the BA threads the author used to write his blog. Yes there are lots of places opening but large numbers of them are opening and moving into areas of the marketplace where there isn't yet a surplus of good beer and a shortage of people who want to drink it. The notion that there is a craft beer bubble has many people obsessing but we're a long way from market saturation as long as the markets are growing as rapidly as they are. There is no bubble to burst yet.

The ironic thing about this whole thread is that it is a rehash of issues raised the more than one prior "when will the bubble burst" threads that were triggered by bloggers reading BA threads and turning them into forcasts of doom and gloom.

Sure there will be some brewery failures on the horizon. Breweries are no different than any other start up. Roughly half of all start up small businesses don't survive their first year, regardless of what business they do. Some of those failures have to be breweries, brewpubs and craft beer bars. As long as market share continues to grow and new markets continue to open we won't see a collapse, etc.

 

I'm no doubt going to bite my tongue after saying this but... Damn! I wish MillerCoors would just freakin buy RRBC and start cranking out Pliny the way they do Blue Moon.

 

Weed 'em out - Say no to crap beer !

 

If local beer is good and I can afford it, I tend to drink it as much as I can. I try to avoid BMC when I can afford to do so. I like to support the small businessman.

 

there isn't a demand for it... honestly, if there was a huge consumer demand for an exact replica of pliny, or a very close equivalent, you don't think the huge BMC's would be brewing it....

i like a good beer and will venture and try some of the new beers that I see on the shelves... but honestly, and I think many or most people are like me, I couldn't tell the difference between the 75 IPA's currently being offered... thats probably why when I stick to what I know *Bells, and rarely try others...... particularly if they are more expensive... the extra cost doesnt usually equate to such a superior beer experience....

 

Thank you, the voice of reason in a sea of armchair economists.

 

This "Impending Doom" thread is starting to reoccur as often as favorite lawnmower beer, best beer in a can, beer going from hot to cold, beer going from cold to hot, top ten states for beer, best beer on a budget, top five beers, what should I drink, last beer in your life, one beer for life and what beer for my wife.

 

There's so many nano breweries in the US now, some of which are producing great beers. Problem for us beer *****s (let's face it, we are) is that though we want to try them all just because 1-we really want to because we're beer *****s and like challenging our palates and are always seeking that next immaculate brew and 2-we're human so we all have egos and want to be able to say "I've had such and such beer that's rare as hell to get". So to be able to try all these great beers we have to go to extreme lengths and make sacrifices.
I rather like the local grassroots way that's blossoming all over the US right now. For me, though they sort of did it by accident, The Alchemist with Heady Topper has a great business model for being successful. Perfect one beer and beer enthusiasts will sell part of their souls or go to extreme lengths to get their hands on it. Basically, just make enough of something great that a fair amount of people can get their hands on it with an equal amount wanting to get their hands on it. Kane Brewing in NJ has an IPA and DIPA that are garnering much attention right now, and some of their Stouts and Belgians are also getting high ratings and attention. I'd like to see them focus on the beers they've (nearly) perfected first before branching out to trying to brew new beers to their arsenal. Just keep making the good stuff that customers want to get their hands on.
I don't get these breweries that start off with all these different concoctions and are brewing a few dozen types of beer from the off. If I were to open a brewery I'd first try to perfect 3 different styles of beer: IPA/DIPA, Imperial Stout and Wild Ale/Sour. Nail one each of those styles and you'd be a mythical iconic figure in the craft beer World.
As Dennis Miller used to say "of course that's just my opinion, I could be wrong".

 

If the US Postal Service legalizes the shipment of alcohol, that will have a large impact on the shelf space dilemma. It won't solve it, but will change things. It will also throw a shift in the beer trading & black market world. Good, bad, or indifferent.
Just worth throwing in the conversation.

 

Hey, I'm from the East, and I tasted Russian River maybe once or twice at a brewfest. I'd love it to be available. But on the other side, the smaller the batch, the more attention to detail. And ultimately quality. Hill Farmstead is perhaps an eastern sister. And just as hard to get.

 

Yeah it's not like people are one day just gonna drop their craft beers and go "welp, don't care about that crap anymore!"

The interest will remain. And it's not like the growth was overnight, this industry and culture have been building for years.

 

I think, in Illinois at least, you must attempt to have your beer distributed by an actual distributor. If the only servicing distributor(s) turn you down, you may self-distribute. This is happening right now where I live, so I assume it is true, state wide?

 

Russian River might hurt themselves by not expanding at least somewhat, enough to consistently supply their home turf. I hear their beers are hard to get in Northern California.

 

Brew good beer and your little brewery will be just fine.

 

What's the flame-out rate for opening (and closing a new restaurant)?

Does anyone here have these numbers for craft breweries (nano, micro, etc)? Would be interesting to see the rates.

I'd assume ones that close down do so because of these common reasons:

1. Poor product that doesn't catch on.
2. Financial management and lack of a careful plan.
3. Squabbles in partnership relationships.

 

If all goes well by this time next year I will be brewing beer commercially. I see my area as being pretty saturated with breweries, and more opening every day. It is turning into a beer destination.

Funny thing is, though there are at least 50 different beers produced in my semi rural area by at least ten breweries, only one is producing an IPA of highest quality, and that one is most distant from me of all the locals. Even though we will be competing with other local brewers who might be able to produce better Kolsch, Stout, Amber, etc. I am certain that producing the finest Pale/IPA/IIPA in our area will be our ticket to success, and give us a chance to master other styles for our lineup.

I believe it is like this in almost all areas of the country. Knowing what niche to fill in a market can lead to great success. For me, hopefully, it will be producing the most popular style better than other locals do, and more cheaply and fresher than non locals.

 

I also live in a self distribute state, and, frankly, if it wasn't I wouldn't even consider opening a brewery here.

 

Well, if we just got rid of wine...

 

Good points here -- and very cool that you're making the leap. Only thing I might question is your ability to sell your beers more cheaply than the non-locals. Sierra Nevada, Lagunitas, and even Ballast Point can be hard to beat; and with SN opening their NC facility within a year, their freshness will be guaranteed, too.