Craft beer in five years...

We can only hope my friend.

 

What I would really like to see are more craft brewers making flavorful, light-bodied, sessionable lagers at a price point that allows them to compete with BMC in local markets. I realize that the scale at which BMC operates means they will probably always win on price, but at least make it close enough so that people consider the local brew.

 

I actually see this as the real big change in the beer industry. I hope that it is something along the lines of a Lagunitas type brewery merging with a smaller brewery instead of BMC acquiring a Lagunitas type brewery.

 

I'm good with either.

 

My hope? Fewer expensive, exclusive beers for hard-to-access markets and more fresh, inexpensive, accessible beers exclusively for local markets.

 

Not me, I'd actually rather see Pabst buy out all the craft breweries and take out BMC. Quite the stretch, but the thought makes me laugh.

 

IMO – the scene over the past several years has very much paralleled the big hype in the California wine industry several years ago. There was a bubble of small vinyards, and wineries opening. Many people during this time were quitting their jobs, and opening micro-batch wineries, and producing limited batch wines. The bubble finally popped. Wines that were going for $50 a bottle were now reduced down to $12. Just look at the amount of new people in the industry that had ZERO training, or experience other than a stint in home-fermenting! Sound familiar?

Many of those wineries ended up going belly up. Why? One was affordability. Sure, some fatcats come along and purchased up a good portion of the limited run product at $50/bottle. After sitting on it for 4-5 years, an actual person who knows stuff about wine says it’s garbage; which brings me to my next reason - repeat business to the folks that make exceptional product.

The new breweries that have come along in the past decade are all struggling to keep up with what the new guys are doing, and vice-versa. The big guys are losing some of their market share right now but they get smart, and try to pass off a few of their own brands as “craft”. Honestly, words like “craft”, “artisanal”, “micro”, “nano”, etc. are all nothing but fad terms. At the end of the day, it’s beer, and that’s what beer drinkers want. What are they willing to pay for?

My prediction in 5 years goes something like this: The big breweries will regain a small portion of that market share. The breweries making choco-latte banana infused hemp ale will probably go away unless they have a strong local base that gives them support. The expensive beer will continue to be expensive if they remain good. If it’s an exceptional product, people will undeniably seek it out, and purchase it. It’s all the middle-of-the-road type places that will be left without an audience.

 

Considering that the style is more popular here than in its native land, I don't see any reason why brewers with the desire and raw ability cannot produce the quality of "lambic" that is produced abroad. I have the same expectation we will do Berliner Weisse better than the Germans, for the same reasons.

 

I don't know of a single U.S. brewery that currently makes a Berliner Weisse by the traditional process -- much less one that is properly set up to do so a=on an appreciable and consistent scale.

This place in Berlin is trying: http://www.bogk-bier.de/?page_id=18, but he probably has years of disciplined work ahead of him to get close to even the mass produced Schultheiss from the late 80s.

There's a fine line between a willingness to take on the world (with an understanding and acceptance of the almost inevitable failure) and outright hubris....

 

So per capita, the US drinks more lambic than Belgium? Are there numbers to back that up? Interesting.

But either way you missed my point. If US brewers really do start putting out great lambics, that will be fan-f**king-tastic. My point was around the best/better part. Why are so many BAs obsessed with this? American beer is better than European beer. California beer is better than Vermont beer. Heady is better than Pliny. 2012 KBS is better than 2013 KBS.

Taste is subjective.

Anyway - I'm done - come back at me - I got nothing more.

 

Yes. When the madness ceases there will be beer yardsales and instead of old golf clubs and Trivial Pursuit games, old beer will be everywhere, mostly dusty and forgotten, a generation old.

 

Gramps told me two things apropos. Never say never, nothing ventured nothing gained.

I am old enough to recall the same sentiments spoken about the young California wine industry.

Betting Americans can't do things is a bad bet to take. 5 years ago no one thought we would be making the beer we make now. 5 years down the road I think anything is possible.

Hubris, you say? Hubris is for ones without ability or drive. Neither describes our brewers.

 

The real hubris is in seeing beer as a competition that's somehow "winnable."

 

I just thought of something I'd never really considered before.

How strange would it be to see Nationally syndicated TV ads for larger "Craft" beer breweries other than Sam Adams.

Example: Has anyone seen a Sierra Nevada or Stone or DFH beer ad on TV before nationally or even regionally ?

 

Definitely Agree.

 

I'd pick up some nice imperial stouts at that pount

 

How long until they get rid of that silly law where the same entity can't do both production and distribution? When that happens, good times will ensue.

Obviously nobody can predict the future, but even if the hype of craft beer dies down people who like beer will still want to buy better tasting beer. The culture of craft beer may settle down but as long as there is demand there will be supply, and I don't see demand going away any time soon even if it does ebb a little bit.

 

Upland lambics, amirite?

 

NB had some on tv for awhile, haven't seen thme recently but they ran for probably six moths.

 

For some of us it already is. My favorite bar's an awful dive, but with two Craft I.P.A.s, an old "True Micro" brand ("E.P.A."), the indefatigable Pabst Blue Ribbon, and an older once-local brand (Hamm's), it's a far cry from the single tap of Michelob Golden Light Draught that they used to have!

Anyhow, each of these is "just beer" to those who like their Jack n' Cokes light on the ice, and that's 90% of the longtime regulars. And the bartenders can't pronounce Lagunitas, either.

(*Ace Cider and Lagunitas I.P.A. in bottles, too.)