Craft beer in five years...

What "law" is that? On the Federal level, the 21st Amendment gave the states the right to regulate beverage alcohol in most respects, and more than half of them - inc. Massachusetts - allow brewers to self-distribute (in some cases, it is limited to breweries under a certain size) - see the B.A.'s Self-Distribution Laws.

 

Perhaps you haven't noticed you have entered the competition 520 times
http://beeradvocate.com/user/beers?ba=herrburgess

 

i see the day when craft beer comes as a pill..you get it out of some twin skin type hermetically sealed package like it was psuedofed and drop it in some sodastream type machine w/ some water and bang!...fresh beer

 

I think we see a consolidation of some of the smaller breweries that don't make it. There will still be new breweries, brewpubs, etc because now this is an established market for craft beer. Distribution channels will continue to improve (but I don't see 3-tier changing anytime soon). Pricing should begin to normalize for regular craft lines but the limited release pricing I'd expect to climb even higher. Five years from now you could see $100 bombers for extreme beers similar to Utopias.

From a beer style perspective, as craft beer is more visible in restaurants we might begin to see people look for specific styles. I for one would enjoy a day when I can ask for a saison to go with me entrée and actually have the waiter suggest one. Right now some upscale restaurants offer craft beer but it is still way behind wine in terms of knowledge for pairings with meals. We may see this in 5 years.

 

One can only hope that the Craigslist black market fails asap, the problem is people are desperate and stupid enough to pay some of those prices. But we can hope.

 

my biggest fear is that craft will become "craft"

 

AB InBev Heady Topper!

 

NG is far from the only brewery to "take care of your own, first" Schlafly comes to mind, going so far as to help other Missouri breweries, while not shunning the idea of appreciating non-local great beer

 

You stole my prediction but I feel like elaborating.

Neighborhood and small town brewpubs as well as breweries with small distribution areas will continue to pop up with regularity, and in places you wouldn't expect them now, while Founders and their ilk will move closer to the Boston Brewing/Sierra Nevada/New Belgium level of production and distribution. I think Duvel's acquisition of Boulevard is also indicative of where craft beer is heading with larger luxury brands realizing the potential to sell to broader groups while still focusing on quality. Similar to how distilled spirits have been for quite awhile with larger companies (LV-MH, Diageo, etc.) selling some high quality stuff to multiple markets. While some of these brands might be swallowed up by BMC corporations I can see buyers coming from all sorts of places (venture capital, previously mentioned luxury brands, food producers, etc.) that we haven't seen yet.

There is definitely going to be a trend of established but not great craft brewers falling by the wayside too, which is just fine by me, there is no reason that Capital or other similar brands should be taking up any shelf space at my local bottle shop. We will lose some good brands too, but talented brewers should have no problem finding jobs or financing.

In summary: some people will get rich, some people will lose a lot of money, great beer will continue to be available, and we'll continue to see new and interesting beer.

 

Looking into the crystal ball, I see:

More homers, more hype, more desire to win, new markets with wales everyone wants, more fights at releases,
less generosity, even less community in the trading forum, higher prices, more gimmicks, less OGs trying to keep up, more people getting shit stolen in trades...

I really hope I am wrong, but I doubt it. This question has been asked multiple times since I started here in 2006, and all the above are more true now than they were then.

Pull up this thread in 5 years if I am wrong.
If I am still around, Ill send ya some beer.

 

This in stores, but beer. The amount of 750ml format bottles that are being aged or refermented is growing faster than any other package. I believe in a few years (5-10) youll see wine racks in stores being used for 750ml and 22oz bottles almost as much as wine bottles. Think, The Bruery, GI (even though its 765), Ommegang, Unibrue.

Soon an American Barrel Aged Imperial something = American Cabernet Sauvignon

 

Quintuple IPAs? Lol

With the growth of demand, I hope that some of the more sought after breweries will expand their distribution!

I certainly dont see the current state of craft brew as a trend. I think a time progresses , more and more people will become accustomed to trying alternative(to BMC) options as they become more available and/or popular.

 

"Did you guys hear about that new Bourbon County Pancake Breakfast Stout that was aged in 400 year old heaven hill barrels and only put into 5L bottles and only sold in a cave underneath Goose Island."

 

I can already taste the breakfast sausage patty limited release

 

We're running out of room in the cooler doors! Pretty soon we're going to have to start cutting back on AB-inBev and MillerCoors! Ohhh noooooo. In the next 5 years I see a third party candidate being nationally recognized and craft beer starting to become more of a serious threat to the higher ups. A revolution has started my friends.

 

In 5 years: A Rogue six pack will cost $47 and Dogfish Head will be brewing beers with ingredients such as pixie dust and reindeer poop.

 

I was going off what a buddy of mine who brews explained to me about the beer industry, how you can't both produce and distribute and how liquor stores only get a very tiny margin on sales of the mainstream brews but have contracts that they must display them in the most prominent position and place craft brews off to the side. But perhaps he was going to by the laws of a different state, if Massachusetts is an exception. There are certainly restaurants around here that brew and sell their own (Boston Beer Works, for example).

 

All I know is that the craft beer market will be great (especially because many of the home microbreweries I've been too will be on the shelves)

 

I have had this discussion several times with friends, and I liken this to the big cigar boom in the late 90's. A ton of new players entering the game with fancy marketing, creative packaging and high prices. Add to that a little bit of manufactured scarcity, and every hipster in town lines up to pay too much money for a wax dipped "limited release".
Please dont get me wrong, I love all of the new beers coming out, but just like any "boom", when the dust settles, people want quality and value. At some point, the micro breweries entering the market will slow, and many will close up shop. Some successful breweries will be gobbled up by a big brewery, and some will remain as they are.
This is all a good thing, because the innovation and competition is what will bring great beer. It is just hard to imagine a marketplace that will continue to support many of the overpriced, lackluster beers.

 

I'm just hoping that the production & distribution of these "whales" gets bigger. I would also like to see the 4-Tier system in place around here get nuked in the meantime, because it makes it impossible to get anything from some of the better known breweries (i.e. Founders, Cigar City, New Glarus, DFH, Russian River, etc.) due to ease of entry into the market and the brewers don't want everyone to be put off by a $20+ price tag for a 4-pack. But I know that'll never happen because so many people want their take in the distribution process and this is the "Bible Belt."