Horrible Time to Open/Expand Brewery?

It's definitely a location thing. Is it over-saturated in your area?

 

I think the expansion question is in a different ballpark. Russian River, Firestone, Three Floyds, Founders, Cigar City (to name a few); they all could pretty much expand into any market and go gangbusters.

If you're a new brewery and your product is good enough, you can launch right now and grow without problems. Every beer drinker can name a few breweries in their market that are producing average or below product. Any new brewery can take that marketshare away with good product. The average breweries will go away if the market contracts.

So I'd say no to both those questions.

 

It may all depend on what type of set up you're going to have (nano/micro, brewpub, production brewery, tap room, etc.) and where you want to set up. If you're in a location that only has one brewpub that may be subpar and you're in a location that is craft beer hungry you may want to take a run at it with you're own brewpub. On the other hand, if you want to open up a nano/tap room in a metro area that has brewery after brewery opening up, you may want to reconsider.

 

Overall, I'm not sure how I feel. I want to see more and better beers available, but news about new breweries and expansion is non-stop. Kinda reminds me of when I hear people say "there are more people in law school than lawyers."

 

You can't sell homebrew. You need to open a brewery to sell beer. Or have it contract brewed, maybe that is what you meant?

 

I've seen that in GA a few times over the last year. Over the last year we got Green Flash, Ballast Point, Westbrook, Cigar City (came back), and Fat Cat among others. Huh? NEVER heard of Fat Cat in my life and I've heard of pretty much everything before it hits our state if it's coming from elsewhere. I have no idea how they survive on our shelves or even if they are still here.

 

i think this is a great time to start a brewery . . . if you brew really good beer. i think a new brewery could start in pretty much any city in the U.S. tomorrow and do well if they have good product. taphouses, stores, etc. depend more on location and atmosphere you create with your place.

 

If you brew it, they will come man. There is literally ONE brewery in Iowa that consistently knocks my socks off, and that is Toppling Goliath. ONE! Yes, breweries like Peace Tree and even newbies like Big Grove hit the nail on the head once in a while, but if you brew awesome beer, your product will have a place in the craft beer world.

 

Waiting for the inevitable shakeout, then going to pick up a used system cheap. My brewing buddy and I have some friends down on the coast who own a bunch of property and have said they'll trade a building rent-free for a steady supply of our beer. We plan on opening up in 20 years or so (after the hysteria has died down...and we've both retired) and hiring our kids to work for us and live at the beach. By then maybe the current generation of BAs will have come around to more subtle styles -- or at least forgotten how much I pissed them off -- and will buy our beer.

 

There's plenty of room in NJ for new beers, we still really don't have an outstanding brewery that packages their product. Kane has it's corked and caged series thats maybe 6 bottles a year and Carton cans Boat. Flying Fish is decent.

Problem is the laws here are quite prohibitive to opening a brewery easily.

 

if you're good, and you get the numbers and logistics right, i would say now is a great time to open or expand a brewery.

i'd listen more to sales figures and national trends than fears that "business is growing, therefore the bubble must burst!"

the bubble is not going to burst. the good brewers with good business plans and the bad brewers with good enough marketing (and business plans) will survive. the ones not falling into either category will not (unless they're REALLY good brewers in a very fortunate situation). that's about it... business seems to be booming, demand can't even be met. not sure why people are worried about bubbles; like tomorrow we'll all wake up and be like "fuck BBA stouts! fuck IPAs! this has gone too far, i'm going home!"

 

Boy would I be happy for regular cans/bottles of Kane and Carton's lineups. Of course, then I'd have to look for something else for growler fills.

 

Most of the replies echo my feelings about this. If the beer you make is good enough, you can open and expand as much as you want without issue. If someone like Toppling Goliath, Russian River, 3 Floyds, or Hill Farmstead suddenly purchased a mega brewing facility and distributed throughout the country without a loss of quality, there's not a chance that they wouldn't be successful.
J Wakefield will be opening up here soon and I don't see that operation having a hard time at all, given that he already has a reputation for making incredibly high quality beer.

But have you guys looked at the shelves in your local beer stores? Lots of mediocre breweries expanding further than they should and taking up shelf space. Those are the breweries that should be concerned.

 

The number of craft beer drinkers is growing by the second. And that will continue for quite some time. Until it stops, it will be impossible for demand to be met so if you know what you're doing and have a sound business plan and make good beer, open your brewery, expand, etc. if you suck, you will fail just like with anything since the beginning of time

 

great time to open a brewery if you make great beer. Horrible time if you make crappy beer. My guess is that most people who brew/own at places with crappy beer dont believe for second that they are making crappy beer. I always say the hallmark of an awesome brewery is a consistently good lineup. If every beer you try is to style and consistent, then they'll survive. I also dont think the market is going to change significantly. Volume and sales will surely taper and growth will slow, but I don't think craft is going to be giving up marketshare for a very long time. I do think craft has a huge demographics problem and when people like me (28, white college educated) are older, I think there is some risk of shrinkage due to lackluster support from younger generations. Craft has grown little amongst other age demographics and/or ethnicities so I worry more about craft being boxed into a corner. A huge advantage that the big guys still retain over craft is its crossover appeal. Most craft industries (beer included) really haven't figured out how to market to a wider demographic other than the core enthusiast. Might be impossible given the nature and economics of the various "local" movements.

I envision older breweries that don't have immediate access to capital either being purchased by larger breweries or selling off, same with younger less experienced breweries. Making it in this industry, much like any other, takes a significant amount of fortitude that I believe some people don't have the strength to see through. I think a lot of people are getting into the industry with very limited service/beverage industry experience and are unfamiliar with the grind. Some will adjust, some will close.

I say that if you want to own a brewery, have a good business plan and the ability to open a craft beer business, then do it. I wouldn't look at what the industry is doing and let that be a deterrent to your plans. These discussions are found at all corners of the internet and I am guilty myself of participating in more than a few. I find that people who are debating this at nauseam are people who would love nothing more than to open a place, but are too risk adverse to do so and look at others with a bit of jealousy. At the end of the day your business depends on so much more than just you and your product. Luck, timing, economics all play a factor. Breweries that open today shouldn't expect to be the next Oskar Blues or Firestone, but I imagine that when these places first opened, they had no intention of being the next New Belgium, Sierra Nevada, or Boston Beer.

Craft beer fans have proven to be incredibly loyal and generous with their money. If you return the favors, then they are sure to support you.

 

I always thought it would be fun to produce locally only. Locally produced and owned and distributed to local bars and stores only. Make enough money to support your brewery and employees without the headache of national marketing and distribution. I would be happy as hell to be in that business. Be active in the community and just make great beer. I personally struggle to find fresh IPAs and what not from the national brewery scene. Kind of the thought I have.

 

Depends on where you are. Portland? Not a great Idea. Los Angeles? OK, The entire central valley of California is wide open. Florida looks good too.