Price increases. Is this the bubble buster?

Nope. Just describing business in general in every industry

 

I wish that I could have picked two because I feel that market saturation and sub par beer can go hand in hand. It's great that there's more choices, but not every new brewery is going to offer something good. The more new breweries, the less shelf/tap space for quality beers. In the long term the market could wind up correcting itself by purging the breweries that aren't offering anything good and putting them out of business. I'm all for supporting local businesses, but I'm not going to support it if the quality isn't there.

 

tl;dr


What bubble?

 

Beer is not a commodity. Especially not craft beer.

 

for BAers it is...I get his overall point though

 

i think the saturation of the market is a concern. there are a lot of new breweries and brewpubs popping up. a lot of them brew shit beer too. being interested in new brews im apt to try a lot of them and eventually seeing myself say fuck it after being disappointed time and time again. then i suppose just going back to the tried and true classics. this hasnt happened yet...but ive thrown away a lot of money on beer that just isnt up to par lately.

 

This is true, as the locals always rave about how great there beer is (some are, some aren't) we see that on here sometimes with the battles between regions in value of their beer. But your point being it does seem pretty trendy to go to your local place for local beer. I don't necessarily know if that will fade though....

 

I think as the market share grows, so does consumer taste. Out of the big three in alcohol (Beer/Wine/Spirits), beer is a shrinking market, but the craft sector is only continuing to grow within that market share. With that being said, I fear market saturation with poor product made by people trying to only make a quick buck in a growing market, rather than having a passion for brewing. Living in Grand Rapids, Michigan, I've seen many breweries where that is incredibly evident. I'm not going to name any names for the sake of transparency, but it feels like a lot of the newer breweries around here that didn't start organically or at least, started small, but opened with HUGE production and flashy advertisement are only driving the quality of product down.

 

Other: There is no bubble to burst

 

Damn it really hurts me to have to agree with you completely on this

 

Actually, I also agree that there is no bubble. But it's not because beer is a commodity, which is defined as being essentially undifferentiated based on who is producing it. To consumers, milk is milk is milk no matter what farm it is coming from. Same with ground beef. Or bottled water.

But beer is highly differentiated by producer. And the prices on beers--in spite of being unfavorable to many that post on BA--are still being driven by basic supply and demand, rather than speculation.

 

I think the market will change on the whole and will become more stratified. There will be Lagunitas, Sierra Nevada, New Belgium and their ilk as the major players. Troegs, Founders, Bells and similarly large, but not enormous breweries will be another tier. Between these two groups, I can see 80% or so of retail shelf space being filled.

What happens next is the way we buy beer changes. We'll see a shift to small, hyper-local breweries that subsist on one or a combination of factors:
- Quality and freshness
- Local Appeal
- Only game in town

There will be more Hill Farmsteads, Treehouses, Peekskills, etc. People will travel for their beer more if the distance and price is reasonable. At least at Treehouse, it wasn't always just the geekiest beer geeks. It's a lot of locals there to get some fresh, tasty beer.

Bubble? No real bubble, but I don't the market is going to remain the same.

 

really appreciating this thread. Lots of good contributions to the discussion without it degenerating into an insult/sarcasm fest!