Fair trade or not generally speaking

If both parties are happy, it is a fair trade.

In my opinion, which is meaningless for the reason posted above, this is a fair trade for both sides.

 

$4$ your Bruery beers may be a little higher. Rarity and trade value wise, I would say this may be in your benefit a tad. Thats assuming you can find someone willing to get rid of KH,CBS, and black note all in one trade

 

I would be shocked if anyone traded that much for a recent BT and CR. But can't hurt to ask.

 

Throw your ISOFT out there and find out.

 

Why do people think Chocolate Rain is less valuable these days? The 3 per person limit does nothing for availability as far as I'm concerned. I only have 1 for trade because I plan to drink 1 and put the other one next to my 2011 bottle in the cellar. Assuming people are willing to trade 1 or 2 and there are a good number of traders in the RS, that's only approximately 1500 bottles that are going to be traded.

BT has gone down a bit but I still got some great stuff for the 2011 bottles I traded. I also hooked up past trade partners for whatever they wanted to send.

 

Precisely because of what you said. There were less than 1500 bottles of Black Note made (1500 bottles FT of CR per your analysis). 3 bottle limit is not that less either.

 

Yeah but that doesn't explain the lowball offers I've seen for CR. Given the price and how many are probably for trade I wouldn't give mine up for off the shelf locals.

 

Not sure what you mean here... what's an off the shelf local? Black Note? King Henry?

Or you mean something like PtE/Heady?

 

I can't speak for others but I will tell you my experience:
* I got Black Note from a regular (thanks so much!) without asking but I don't think I had the ammo.
* For CBS + very good beers I gave up a Darkness, a Dark Lord and another beer. Point being that Darkness or Dark Lord alone wouldn't have done it but all things considered it was a great trade for me.
* I was very lucky in getting King Henry. Traded 2 bottle for bottle for The Abyss (thanks!) and another for assorted Surly (thanks!). But that was when King Henry was not as tough to trade for.

I am very happy how all these trades worked out for me.

 

I doubt you can get all 3 for a CR and BT. It shouldn't be a problem to get 2 of them, maybe with some other less limited stuff to even the $ a bit.

I'm not sure how much The Bruery expanded the RS for 2012. It was 700 members for 2011, so if we assume another 200-300 members that is still 3k or less bottles of CR. I traded mine for some great stuff, so I wouldn't read too much into the low ball offers. We see low ball offers for all kinds of beers all the time but they don't get done.

 

I think CR still has very high trading clout. It can land just about any other 1000+ bottle domestic limited release out there, and most sub-1000's.

That said, I keep trying to figure out what the hell is going on lately - it's like beer "values" have been flipped on their head. My current theory is the noob influx has shifted the general community towards distributed releases and away from super-limited brewery only stuff. As crazy as it sounds, many noobs don't even know what Chocolate Rain is, and don't really care about The Bruery. Thus, beers like KH and CBS immediately become ultra-whales, because in their world, those are the hardest to get beers. Even beers like CBH or Bramble, which would have traded for just about anything in the past, end up getting held for considerable ransom. It's artificial valuation on the surface, but if enough people believe it and behave as if KH was a limited release, then in fact it turns into a limited release as far as trade value is concerned.

Craziness, but I do think this bubble will pop, and beers like Curmudgeon will once again trade for locals.

To the OP - perfectly fair deal, but it is not likely to get done.

 

That makes a lot of sense to me. I want to reply more, but it's pretty off topic.

On topic, the proposed trade does seem fair to me. I think the main reason it'll be a problem is that someone with BN, KH, and CBS probably also has CR and BT already.

 

That said, I keep trying to figure out what the hell is going on lately - it's like beer "values" have been flipped on their head. My current theory is the noob influx has shifted the general community towards distributed releases and away from super-limited brewery only stuff. As crazy as it sounds, many noobs don't even know what Chocolate Rain is, and don't really care about The Bruery. Thus, beers like KH and CBS immediately become ultra-whales, because in their world, those are the hardest to get beers.

Maybe beers like CR and BT seems out of reach to the noobs, so they hold beers like KH and CBS to a higher standard as they are more atttainable?

 

Black Note was less than 1,000 bottles with a 2 per person limit, while others have said CR was 3,000 bottles with a 3 per person limit. That being said, I believe you'd have no problem trading CR 1:1 for the Black Note.

BT '11 there were about 7,000 bottles, 7 per person allocation, and some could even buy it online. I still think it has very high trade value, and should still pull highly rated, thinly distro beers like CBS or KH 1:1.

The problem is that BT and CR will likely be made again and again for the foreseeable future, while KH is permanently discontinued and I've been told by Founders reps that CBS likely wont be bottled again for at least another 3-4 years. It also probably doesn't help that all three beers you're asking for are rated higher (I know this means nothing) than the two beers you're willing to give up.

That being said, if you add a Melange #3 to your trade, I wouldn't be surprised to see you land CBS, KH, and Black Note all in one trade.

 

Because it was 15,000 bottles of a beer that isn't really all that desirable. That's a lot of bottles, and its Wants-to-Gots ratio is 200-350. Until the last few months, when have we ever seen a beer that traded for something more than local off the shelf stuff with that kind of inverted ratio? Supply clearly outstrips demand on this one - that's a beer that should trade easily for off-the-shelf stuff.

But, what is happening nowadays, is CBH owners see "Founders limited release" and get starry eyed about what it can land, and hold out for unrealistic expectations. But "limited" is relative - 15,000 bottles of Kate the Great would be "limited". 15,000 bottles of CBH is plenty. Net-net a few people pony up, but most extra bottles just sit around un-traded. That has become the trading community in a nutshell.

Eventually that bubble will burst when people get tired of hoarding limited releases in the hopes of a payout that never comes to fruition.

 

Not the smart CBH owners

 

There are plenty of great and realistic traders out there. It's just unfortunate that for every good one there seems to be a new handful sprouting up by the week that are more interested in squeezing every last ounce of value out of their bottles than just enjoying trading for the fun of trading.