Phoenix's first farmhouse brewery

Or even just "Old World" a bit too seriously

 

so, again, you're saying that starting a local microbrew, even one infested with rodent feces, is a can't-lose business

- guarenteed shelf space
- big 'buy local' push from retailers
- affirmative action from the clueless tourists and non-educated beer drinkers

it's working for these guys, horrible reviews and all, as I mentioned before, their facebook page mentioned new deals with safeway, new distributors in california, etc. The question now is how long will the gravy train last. The market can't be this forgiving forever.

 

funny!

 

Just checked out their web site and I have to say, just by the way these guys write about the beer they brew you can tell they lack passion as brewers.

 

I never said it was a "can't lose business". That's a straw man.

We had a similar thing in the 1990's with an initial boom in micros, and then a lot of them went bust. Back then it was amazing how many mediocre beers & brewpubs existed. I think the bubble is even bigger this time because there is so much ticking out there, so many new people to craft beer who are still trying everything once (especially if local). There's a whole new wave of people, largely generational, who are just getting into craft beer and learning. At some point things will normalize again and brewers like Four Peaks will be fine, and ones like Old World and others won't make it.

BTW your guaranteed shelf space & buy local push are mostly the same thing. Places seem to have a need to offer everyting that is available, especially if local. Whole Foods has the buy local as one of their core business principles and in fact they often lack a lot of great regional & imported crafts yet have mediocre to poor local ones occupying shelf space. It's just the way it is.

Below average restaurants can get the same sort of boost from tourists who don't know any better, especially when location is key. This is nothing unusual either.

 

It isn't only drink local. I was just in LA and there was a ton of Old World at Whole Foods. I was shocked but there was a lot of it...

 

Dear California, please forgive us.

 

if true, this goes against yemenmocha's hypothesis? maybe the beer market, local or not, has enough room for everyone? Bud, Corona, Firestone Walker, Four Peaks and even ones with like this?

by the way, what grosses me out is this part: "Rodent/mouse feces found on the floor and shelving at the storage area used for grains."

It's bad enough to have it on the floor, but on the same shelf as the grains? Some guy out there might be drinking a beer right now where just a short time ago that same bag of grain they used was a luxury condo for a herd of rodents.

A business needs to be told to clean this up vs. them doing it on their own?

 

Just got home from Total Wine. Manager told me that for beer, if it is available at all in Arizona then they will sell it (their goal). As long as Old World and other similar ones are available then they'll have shelf space at Total Wine locations. And a given amount will slowly move off shelves, no matter how bad a beer is. There's no shortage of tickers and unsuspecting out of state people who will try local stuff for the first time.

and this is without a "buy local" focus like Whole Foods has.

Plus I think we shouldn't forget that it's not just the consumer that has influence (and arguably has little influence sometimes). For all we know the distributors are promoting this beer and it has a good profit margin - so it could have a preferential treatment for being stocked vs. not at all. Given the horrendous scores on BOTH BeerAdvocate and RB it strikes me as extremely implausible to think it is on the shelves due to high customer demand.

And besides, it seems like some here are arguing just to argue. Their beers are horrible and there's no other good explanation for why they're on the shelves at all. It isn't because the beers are actually so good, yet BA's and RB folks are just completely wrong across the board in their condemning reviews.

 

I'm not argueing. I don't dispute any of the reviews and you make great points. From your links, there are so many poor reviews across so many drinkers that it can't be a coincidence.

I'm just trying to solve the riddle. It just seems to me that any business in any industry that operated like this wouldn't last, that's all...

 

Yemen, one last question, when do you see this bubble ending like you mentioned eariler which happened in the 90s?

If you go to Total Wine or others, there are so many beers to choose from with more and more being added every day, it seems impossible that a there wouldn't be a market correction soon which separates the groups and the inevitable where several at the bottom drop off.

I think we're in that honeymoon space where things are still booming and won't tail off for a few more years.

 

Hard to make that call on the timeline. The idea isn't mine of course, and nothing new. I've read that brewers are being cautious about this happening because they recall the 90's, and the better ones are making sure they have cash positions to survive any decreases in demand. Regardless of any bubble bursting, I think the most successful breweries will still grow through it - Russian River, Bell's, Stone, Founder's, Odell, etc.

Some factors are on the table that could bring this about:

1. Inflation & new pricing structures. We're already seeing this on the shelves, but I think there's going to be a two tier split. On the one hand there will be the larger craft brewers like Sierra Nevada and Sam Adams who are still able to sell beer for much cheaper. Right now they're both around $1/bottle, not much more than "premium" BMC. As InBev/BMC buys out brewers like Goose Island and others in the future, that will expand the lower tier of affordable craft beer. Everyone else who isn't large with the same economies of scale won't be able to compete with their low pricing and their prices will be even higher, and that will narrow down the range of customers. And that narrower range of customers will be selective in which breweries continue to thrive and which ones bust. People will still pay $12 or $15 for sixpacks of great IPA's like Bell's and Odell. They'll get livid if they paid that much for an Indian Wells Amnesia IPA once they taste the first pour. Not to start a politics debate or anything but the middle class is getting squeezed and there's only so much they'll pay for a sixpack of beer once prices go up even further. Only so many brewers can be in that premium pricing range as inflation comes in more aggressively.

2. Increased distribution of the better brewers - once great brewers like Bell's, Russian River, etc. are distributed in many, many more states then those consumers will be choosing from among the best vs. what they have to choose from now. Not everyone's current range of beers on the shelves is ideal for them. The best beer is likely going to have a dent on the less than stellar breweries' sales. This one seems undeniable. Once we get more in AZ such as Russian River, Founders, Three Floyd's... won't that reduce how much you buy from other breweries? Even the more ordinary brewers like New Belgium are opening breweries out East and their Fat Tire and others will surely nibble away at less popular craft beers. This trend is only going to continue.

3. I love the freshness dating issue because it is spreading and it is the truth serum for telling how long stuff is selling vs. sitting and collecting dust on shelves. As more consumers become more aware of this, the slower moving product will move even slower, and then that could lead to those items not being sold in various stores. At some point the having to return stuff to the distributor is going to get really annoying and then they'll just stop carrying it.

 

I'm very careful about buying old beer, and the dates tell a lot. For what I buy, Total Wine seems to have a very fast turnaround in their stock. I can't tell you how often I've purchased very old stuff at TOPS or SunDevil, or even some of the AJ's in town. So the refrigeration doesn't really matter as much if it is already expired. Bell's Two-hearted, for example, is often not even in stock at my Total Wine because it sells out between distributor allocations. I've seen very old examples REFRIGERATED at my local Safeway. I know which I'd rather drink. Plus I'm by no means an exclusive Total Wine or Bevmo shopper. I spend at lot at WF, AJ's, and others too.

Regarding OHSO and others I think there's also the AZ liquor law & license issue where it is easier for them to formally be a brewery and mostly sell other beers, than just be a typical bar that sells beers. More educated folks in the industry can probably reveal more details on that, but it was what I've been told by some in the industry in the past. There's no brewing equipment at Papago either. Same for Cave Creek TapHaus which has a couple of brews contract-brewed elsewhere. Same with OHSO.

 

OHSO is building their brewery right now.

 

Their bartender told me it will be Grand Canyon contract brewed "for awhile". I think Cave Creek Taphaus is using Grand Canyon too?

 

"The nanoBrewery is going to start construction soon! What crazy beers do you wanna see come out of our small batch brewery??"​

Thats from their Facebook so they haven't started yet.​

 

Refrigeration is important, but ultimately a beer that was bottled 3 weeks ago, even if it is out on the shelf, is going to taste alot better than a 4 month or old beer in a fridge. IPA's especially have a very limited window. I love to get them within a month of bottling date if possible, and from my experience it matters less if it's cold so long as it is dated fresh. Obviously both cold and fresh would be ideal but I'll take what I can if I'm not going directly to the source.

On the topic of great brewers, I don't really see yemenmocha talking specifically about medal winners and rare distribution. He's talking about undeniably great craft brewers. I don't know how many beers you have been able to enjoy from Russian River, Three Floyds, Founders, but these places are popular and talked about for a reason, and their portfolios top to bottom are better than most others out there. I suppose for every beer made there's probably someone who will like it, does that make every brewer great?