Completely unscientific poll about HS/RS renewals

Discussion in 'Pacific' started by Xul, Jul 16, 2014.

?

If you received a renewal notice today, what best describes your response?

  1. Definitely renew

    28.3%
  2. Unsure but probably renew

    34.4%
  3. Unsure but probably not renew

    23.3%
  4. Definitely not renew

    13.9%
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  1. Xul

    Xul Pooh-Bah (2,139) May 18, 2008 California
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    Following from the discussion in the HS/RS Allocations thread about renewals and how many people are choosing to not renew, I was curious to get a more quantitative response. I realize that the poll is prone to be skewed in a number of different ways, and mostly pointless, but that describes most of what's discussed on beer forums anyway.
     
  2. eaterfan

    eaterfan Devotee (375) Jul 10, 2013 California
    Trader

    I think my issue I raised in the other thread isn't so much that the Bruery won't see a good number of people not renew it's that there are plenty more people willing to replace them.
     
    albertq17 and CaptainFleeker like this.
  3. Xul

    Xul Pooh-Bah (2,139) May 18, 2008 California
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    I would raise a few points to that:
    1) Increased churn rate is never good for a business trying to manage its client base.
    2) The RS did not sell out last year, so there's a finite demand to join that level. I'm sure there are people who couldn't swing it last year, or have just become fans of The Bruery this year, or any other number of reasons, but they don't have the same perceived level of demand that used to exist.
    3) For potential upgrades from RS to HS, people will frequently split an HS membership. If two RS members upgrade into one shared HS membership, the RS only gains $100 in membership fees - not a huge gain.

    I don't think the situation is doom and gloom by any means, but the memberships are a cash infusion to the tune of $750k/year (assuming ~450 HS and 1500 RS) - if that number shrinks, it reduces the amount of cash that they have to invest in improvements, expansion, new barrels, etc. I have zero inside knowledge of The Bruery's finances and I doubt that a bad year of renewals would put them in dire straits, but the landscape of available beer clubs today is drastically different from when the RS was first formed.
     
    DougOLis likes this.
  4. mhksuccess

    mhksuccess Pooh-Bah (1,586) Jul 7, 2012 California
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    I did not get any renewal notice
    Are you kidding me??? The year is barely halfway and still have not got much good stuff for being Hoarder
    I just don't know if I can afford this anymore it is getting out of control expensive
     
    Skunkdrool likes this.
  5. Xul

    Xul Pooh-Bah (2,139) May 18, 2008 California
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    The poll question very clearly asked "IF you received a renewal notice today..." It's a hypothetical question.
     
  6. Brewzer1010

    Brewzer1010 Crusader (480) Feb 17, 2010 New Jersey
    Trader

    I plan to renew, however instead of going 50/50 with another BA, I am dropping to 25/25/50 (me being a 25) with a couple other BAs. So I guess that means I am definite, however my drop from 50 to 25 should be a good indication that this year has been disappointing.

    Edit: speaking to HS memberships in this post.
     
    #6 Brewzer1010, Jul 16, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2014
  7. eaterfan

    eaterfan Devotee (375) Jul 10, 2013 California
    Trader

    1) Agreed. Turnover is never the way to run a business. I think once the QC issues are resolved this will stabilize. If they still have QC issues once they have begun distributing beers from the separate facilities then this model will be unsustainable.

    2. I know it took awhile to sell out but I thought it eventually did. One thing I've noticed is that the tasting room has gotten more crowded over the last year. There probably are a decent number more Bruery fans than even a year ago. I think demand for RS membership is where we differ most in our assessment.
    3. Many RS members (like myself) split memberships too. Many split just so they can purchase more and get into the HS.

    Edit: If my buddy and I got invited we would join the HS.
     
  8. reefer_bob

    reefer_bob Savant (1,010) May 13, 2014 California
    Trader

    Maybe this is a dumb question, but is there an ability to jump from a PS all the way up to a HS? Or do you have to stop at the RS for a year first...

    I'm PS now.
     
  9. Xul

    Xul Pooh-Bah (2,139) May 18, 2008 California
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    That's entirely possible, I only get up there six to eight times per year and while it's definitely crowded, I'm not really able to make a judgment on whether the increased traffic carries with it more people who are big enough fans to invest in the RS, or whether they're content to drink Humulus, Saison Rue, etc.

    Also a fair point that I didn't really consider.

    There may be more demand for RS memberships than I'm considering, and I certainly don't begrudge the Bruery that - I've been a fan since they opened and genuinely hope to see a return to form, but the past year has left not left me entirely optimistic.
     
  10. rossthefireman

    rossthefireman Initiate (0) Oct 20, 2008 California

    Unsure. I share my HS membership with a small group of guys. (I know The Bruery frowns upon it) The group will have to decide. I know not everyone is thrilled with all the 'bad' beers this year.
     
  11. JohnCassillo

    JohnCassillo Initiate (0) Mar 29, 2013 California

    As someone in PS, I was pretty set on moving up to RS next year -- but yeah, now I'm not so sure based on all the QC issues. If I did go to RS, it wouldn't be by myself, that's for sure... though also think there's an element forgotten here about how Terreux will affect a lot of things on the society side.
     
  12. Xul

    Xul Pooh-Bah (2,139) May 18, 2008 California
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    IMO, it's too much of an unknown to even figure into thoughts until they're willing to explain more. If they use Terreux to brew more beers like Tumescence and Soroburuo, it likely won't sway many people. If they use it to create more beers like Griffon Bruxellois, White Zin, and expand their wild saison program, it could be intriguing. Even then though, they'll be competing with breweries like Crooked Stave, de Garde, SARA, and The Rare Barrel. I like a lot of the Bruery's sours (not as much as I like others, but $16 fruited sours that I don't have to trade for, stand in line for, or have shipped are pretty appealing) and Terreux could do a lot to renew some people's interest, but as I said before, the landscape of competition has changed.
     
  13. SDReaper

    SDReaper Pooh-Bah (2,174) Aug 15, 2013 California
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    First year RS member, apparently won the lottery with finding the Courverteur issue (yay!), but will likely be renewing RS again. While I am not a huge fan of their entire lineup I do still enjoy many of their beers. Having the ability to buy bottles not open to the public will keep me renewing.

    Although I must admit, I am now intrigued about getting into the League from Modern Times, although I am not extraordinary...nor a gentleman most of the time (tough to be a gentleman when you look/dress like a hobo every day, good thing work doesn't care!).
     
    TTC likes this.
  14. Saxmusik45

    Saxmusik45 Initiate (0) Nov 18, 2011 California

    Did they publish a list of what's included in the initial package and some of the beers they hope to release next year? I think that'll be what spurs my overall interest in renewing. Since the membership fees almost add up to the initial package beer cost, it's not an huge added cost/barrier to entry.

    I also imagine that if the membership numbers decline to any point that's considered drastic, they would just expand distribution for beers that are currently society only. It doesn't necessarily devalue the society as members still get a discount and guaranteed allotments.
     
  15. Rocket80

    Rocket80 Initiate (0) Nov 18, 2011 California

    I haven't received an e-mail but assuming my co-HS member and myself are invited back I'm pretty sure we will re-join. I just first look at it from the perspective of what I get for the initial $350 investment - the 10 bottles of beer, some merch, first dibs on/access to events, access to HS exclusive beers... That's basically worth it even if I proceeded to order no beers all year.

    The biggest selling point for me though is just the pure convenience of the entire thing. I no longer have the time or energy to rush off to a local bottle shop when new stuff comes out, or wait in long lines at bottle releases - the fact that I can order beer straight from my couch and pick it up at my convenience is huge for me, and not something I'm ready to give up. Plus it gives me a good excuse to go to the Bruery every month or so.
     
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  16. LKFH

    LKFH Pundit (876) Apr 9, 2007 California

    This is my first year as a RS member. So far I am happy, although I think I will end up spending more than expected. I am leaning strongly towards renewing, but my wife and I are expecting our first kid. While the RS expense fits in the budget, I can't help but think it would be better served going into the kids' savings account.
     
  17. skelliott

    skelliott Zealot (569) Jul 2, 2013 Texas

    My indecision has more to do with the excessive amount of Bruery beer I have in my house, rather than the QC issues.
     
  18. DougOLis

    DougOLis Initiate (0) Aug 15, 2008 California

    Probably will renew but this will be the first year that I really have to reconsider it. When they announce the list of next year's beers it will help sway my decision, but it'd definitely take more sours next year for me to firmly go yes.
     
    mhksuccess likes this.
  19. m34josh

    m34josh Zealot (508) Oct 19, 2009 California
    Trader

    Probably will renew. Would definitely prefer a split with the new Terreux line, so I don't receive any sours
     
    mike409 likes this.
  20. Dad_of_Rad

    Dad_of_Rad Zealot (586) Jan 24, 2013 Illinois
    Trader

    1st year RS member and would likely renew. I don't have an issue with QC issues as long as they're discovered and brewery is disclosing early and/or refunding depending on circumstances. My biggest issue has been shipping to Illinois. Definitely is harder as an out of state RS member IMO.
     
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