Bottle Logic's Fundamental Observation

Someone should try it. Then when they get there and are told that it's all sold out, should throw a tantrum and demand that TW makes this right #beerscene2015

 

I tried last night. It said out of stock already.

 

I'm not driving that far. Thought if anyone might be in the area, it was worth a try.

 

So I was a little bored and decided to do some very trivial analysis of ratings for Fundamental Observation looking at the different ratings across a few factors. I've been meaning to do this for a couple other very highly hyped beers, but the recency of this release and the manageable number of ratings made this a pretty easy candidate.

I took down the rating given, state the rating came from, date of the rating and searched to see if the user had attempted to trade the beer away.

Here is the data:

49 total reviews
17 rated the beer before the bottle release
16 rated the beer and posted it FT (not known how many people actually traded the beer)
44 ratings from California

Average rating from California (44): 4.78, average rating from outside California (5): 4.78
Average rating before release (17): 4.65, average rating after the release (32): 4.85
Average rating by those with no FT posts (33): 4.71, average rating by those with FT posts (16): 4.94


Do with that data what you will, I found it interesting to see the rating rise with the hype from the release. The FT post difference was pretty impressive too, I'd call that too high a spread to be random, but I'm no statistician. I'd be curious to see how those two sets change with an increase in reviews.

 

I want to see more reviews/ratings from outside of CA.

 

Even those reviews might be subject to scrutiny as the anticipation and amount given up to acquire a bottle can skew perception.

 

I'm going to SR-71 mine and hold it hostage for a few weeks and eventually drink it.*

*With the mandatory Instagram & "What are you currently drinking" post.

 

A lot of the trades have been ip in california too. I have traded a couple to people in other states so it will be interesting to see what they think. I will be fine keeping the rest of mine if the iso drops off.

 

I'll try to help with that by sending some of the bottles I (hopefully) trade for to my regular, awesome trading partners from out of state

Seriously? You're technically right, but wouldn't you say that about pretty much any beer that is highly rated and sought after, like bvdl, ann, or any given SP release pretty much?

Anyway, I'm honestly happy for Bottle Logic and actually all SoCal breweries to finally have a beer that at least created some (mostly) positive buzz in the trading and craft beer tasting world.

 

This is it.

How the fuck can CA traders bitch about Midwest traders hyping and non - CA traders bitch about CA traders hyping... it's relative!!!!

It's not like CA traders or Midwest traders are genetically predisposed to beer hyping!!

Geez.

 

I take most reviews with a grain of salt, but especially reviews for super-hyped releases because they typically follow the same pattern CTfalcon uncovered.

 

I'd like to see this updated in a few months once beers make it out of state (maybe when it hits 100 ratings?). I haven't tried FO yet but will soon but I'm curious to see what non-CA people think. So far the ratings across the board look pretty solid. I would also like to see this type of analysis done for non-CA hyped beers. I still remember seeing (low) ratings from the midwest for Kiwi Herman before it got released

 

I'd say all regions are guilty of overhyping at this point in the game, but I don't think I'd be wrong in making the claim that certain regions are pioneers of this phenomenon. Anyone who's been around for quite some time will likely agree. I mean, how do you think the Binny's jokes came about?

 

I was originally going to do some Side Project beers just from an in state/out of state perspective but I thought the crazy amount of discussion about this beer from a trade perspective made it even more interesting. I'd like to do more with different breweries, including some near and dear to me. I'll keep up with this one though too.

 

As a guy going through college and about to graduate with hopes of going into a career of information systems analysis, I'm sure I can put together some regression models(as well as other interesting/useful stats) to further validate/invalidate the claims. Seems fun

 

Want! Sounds interesting!

 

Bring on the math haha.

 

Great! Each of you guys grab a region. I'll be in charge of analyzing the beer. (uurp)

 

Any chance this makes it all the way to San Francisco?

 

@CraftE and @CTFalcon have a nice setup going for themselves. Keep it up and you'll be running prediction models on what beers you can land with what beers you have. You'll be whale-slaying left and right.

Watch out for these two, BA community.