CALIFORNIA DROUGHT: No more beer?

So I have you to blame for the middle of the night unwanted wake-up calls when I lived in Chico? I used to live on the southwest edge of town, about 250 feet from the tracks, right where the trains were required to open their horns.

 

This is true. Only instead of 47% for ag, it is 77%

 

Almonds definitely require a considerable amount of water. We'd do well to cut down production of them.

 

Guilty...

 

Climate change is real. Higher prices for beer are inevitable. Beyond that, it's hard to say what will happen. Kind of depends on what people are willing to pay.

The California drought is just a glimpse of the hotter, drier weather the state is going to have to deal with for the foreseeable future. Over time water is going to become more and more scarce and it's going to become much more expensive for certain crops and products to be produced here. Whether or not those products continue to be produced will depend on how much people are willing to pay for them.

Brewing is one industry that definitely is in danger of a contraction as prices increase. Brewing requires a lot of water, and hops and barley are crops that require fairly specialized conditions to thrive. As the climate changes in regions that have historically grown them, they're going to become more difficult to grow and more expensive. So with water, hops, and barley all in increasingly short supply, it's not hard to imagine what will happen to beer prices, and not just beer from California brewers.

So, how much will you pay for beer? Would you cut back on your consumption if beer costs 25% more across the board? How about 50%? If people keep buying just as much beer when it's $16-20 a sixer (and a pound of ground beef is $10-15) then everything will be fine in the brewing industry. If people cut back by 20%, then the brewing industry will contract. If they cut back more, it will contract more, and not just in California.

 

Lets not forget that most states do not have a drought problem. I think the biggest effects will be higher food and water prices and more importation of food from places that do not have water issues. It really seems like BIG AGRICULTURE has their hand in Jerry's pocket since his recent policy measure will do almost nothing to overall use as it does not address ag. My hope is that the powers that be do have a plan for that as it will be complicated and involve lost jobs, revenue...

I don't know what part of the usage pie chart from page 1 that the beer industry fits into (commercial and/or industrial urban?), but it seems like it's currently a drop in the bucket in overall water use. Plus it would take water cost increases of several hundred percent, possibly even over 1000% to affect the final price of beer to go up 25% so I don't see that happening any time soon.

On the plus side, the non-CA states with drought issues aren't very good for beer outside of a few TX breweries and one OK brewery that come to mind:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/06/01/states-running-out-of-water/9506821/

Also, this guy has some good ideas on how to deal with things (see other links for more info or his AMA):
http://www.aguanomics.com/2014/07/pricing-tap-water-for-efficiency-and.html

 

http://agwaterstewards.org/index.php/practices/dry_farming/

That is what farmers need to switch over to until the drought breaks, or if it is what needs to become a semi permanent practice then fine. It will have negative impact on the yields, but the quality of product is said to increase. I am not an expert on Ag, but I will trust the research that says so. State just needs to provide incentives for farmers to try to make this change.

 

Chit chatting w/ an employee at BevMo yesterday got me thinking about this thread. I mentioned to him "Wow the 6packs of Swami pints are now $15.99? They were $10.49 a week ago."

He went on to tell me the price jumped overnight due to water restrictions the breweries are having placed on them, and that Stone's prices have been incrementally inching up as well for the same reason.

Not sure if I buy it but it's a noteworthy theory. At the same time, Grapefruit Sculpin's prices have leveled off and, in many places I see it, dropped by a dollar or two per sixer. So go figure.

 

I am not buying it.

1. It is from a BevMo employee. I have never found one I would consider as knowledgeable as I am. I am far from what I would consider the most knowledgeable guy.

2. Prices go up incrementally anyway due to several circumstances. Inflation is also possible. I have noticed a raise in price on non-CA beer as well. Malt and hop prices are higher right now, that could be driving up the price.

 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/foodanddri...rocket-next-year-thanks-to-drought/ar-AAdwBIg

 

two words from our partners from the south. EL NINO

 

Which is Spanish for ...... The Nino

 

I'm pretty sure it has something to do with Jesus or small chickens or something like that