When is the bubble gonna burst?

There's no bubble to burst with beer because beer requires real money and a lot of it, but there'll be a slimming effect when people grow tired of certain things and breweries that try to be what they shouldn't and are not ready for. I do think there's a humbling effect that'll creep in with breweries that are distributing as they look at the reality of their sales and what they mean long term for their viability, and relevance in those markets with saturated shelf space.
There will be some consolidation, but that's really mostly an irrelevant concern in regards to access because there are so many breweries operating and so many on the market in regards to shelf space that the BMC's of the world can't regain that. It'll be an interesting chase for the larger breweries who are rearranging the deck chairs of the big beer ship and elbowing their way into the space BMC has resided in because eventually the prices are going to have to drop, and they are going to have to begin undercutting one another on price to increase sales. But, before that kind of saturation occurs with its growth, we'll still be the apple in a mostly pc world, so price be damned.

 

That's the best analogy I've seen on this topic. Well said. There are so many pizza places in Rhode Island (where you are too). Some sprout up and then die because of bad location, crappy pizza or both. Others hang in there forever because of good location, good pizza or both. Breweries seem to go right along with this. And with our appetite for alcohol as intense as our appetite for unhealthy foods like pizza, I don't see this changing any time soon.

 

www.statisticbrain.com/pizza-statistics/

Apparently 35% is chains, 65% independent. So still way more than craft breweries. I mean most towns in the northeast have >1 pizzeria.

Anyway, i Think the USA market can bear thousands more breweries. 1000s more breweries with >1 SKU on shelves at a time in all 50 states? No way on that, but unless you've really established yourself that's a crazy business model anyway.

 

It won't burst, it will implode. The bigger fish will begin to consume the smaller less successful fish. Time to order a pizza.

 

There are an insane number of pizza joints in Rhode Island. Every city/town (not that we have many) has multiple mom and pop owned joints. Sure, we've got Domino's Papa John's and Pizza ****, but they are few and far between. Many of these mom and pop pizza joints have been open for decades. New ones still pop up too.

 

I see where you're coming from with this, but I disagree that craft beer will have the same fate as some trendy non-consumable product. The word "craft" is just a label that people are capitalizing off of. Some people may be seeking the beers out just for that label, but I would imagine many more are seeking the beers out because of the flavors. Unlike the enjoyment of Beanie Babies, that isn't going to wear off. It's not like tons of people are going to one day say "oh, these beers actually do suck, I'm going back to drinking Natty Light." Call it craft, call it whatever you want, people are still seeking the products that they like the taste of.

 

Well if the bubble hasn't broken on this thread topic, I think we're safe on the brewery/beer bubble

 

I love the Leader!

 

You're right, there's no doubt that BAs are a small segment of people that drink craft. I don't think other consumers of craft beer think or act like the folks here. But still, when you say "move on" I can't help but wonder "move on to what?" or more importantly, "why move on?" If they are getting Sierra Nevada Pale Ale 12 packs for a fairly cheap price will they just move back to Bud Light because the "trend" seems to be dying out. It seems odd. I can see not wearing cut off jean shorts because the trend ended, but that's because cut off jean shorts weren't giving you anything some other pair of shorts couldn't just as easily give you. SNPA gives you something the other products outside of craft can't.

 

Well, since 50% of all new start ups in any area of business are usually gone in 5 years or less anyway that's a pretty safe prediction that has nothing to do with beer and can be said of any area of business.

 

Never, because there is no bubble.

 

Bubble Burst when Bourbon County is year round at 7-11.

 

The pizza world has great Italian pizza joints and the mass produced "filler" for babysitters and children. The homemade pizza and dishes that go with it will stay. I'm waiting for the cheap filler pizza places to fold.

 

Move on to wine, spirits, ciders, mead or whatever their friends start drinking next. There are more directions than Craft beer back to Bud. I don't think the "bubble" or whatever is a concern but there are plenty of trend jumpers into craft right now and they will move on to the latest and greatest eventually. That doesn't mark doom for craft beer, but it will happen.

 

How does one get bored with drinking beer?

 

You say there are only so many ways to make a good IPA, but that you're getting bored with craft beer, then you don't like experimental beers that go beyond style category.

I say there is a ton of good beer out there right now, lets all drink it and be happy :-)

 

Inflation has a bit do with it...as does the bar you're going to. Gas and milk aren't cheaper than they were 10 years ago.

 

There are also new craft beer drinkers every day covering the additional supply and then some. It's making whale hunting too time consuming.

 

Exactly. I've seen a bunch of Teslas lately.....damned good looking car! The beer business is like every business. If one has a good plan, can brew good beer, and enough capital to endure any unseen hardships, then things should work. Older folks are buying in to the new good beers. This is no fad.

 

Sure we're in agreement on the number. But not on the reason for closure. Unless I mis-read you, you were attributing it to flavorful beer being a passing fad. My point was that we can expect 50% to be gone in 5 years even if the beer is not a passing fad.

Edit: But I also don't think that the current surge in growth of consumption and number of breweries is a passing fad. Thirty years ago our choices of bread in the supermarket were Wonder Bread, Wonder Bread or Wonder Bread. Then the artisanal bread movement began (and was called a fad) but now almost every grocery store constructed in the last 10-15 years has an in house baker for breads and/or other baked goods. At about the same time the choice for cheese was Kraft, Kraft, or Kraft. Now the smallish size supermarket where my wife and I shop has two different locations for a wide range of cheeses including small local cheese producers.