When is the bubble gonna burst?

I would call that a dream come true, not a bubble burst.

 

That's because we are super rich now adays and can aford things beside Wonderbread and Kraft cheese.

Just look at the Brady Bunch as an example. Everyone thought the Brady Bunch house was such a big/amazing house back then. State of the art designed by an architech dad. 2 kids bedrooms shared by 3 kids in each? Now adays, probably 70% or more family households in this country probably have their own bedrooms. That's just an example.

Support for craft beer movement, and artisinal/higher priced "anything" is pretty much riding on the backs of higher disposable income.

 

Really? How do you figure an increase in disposable income when median income is down over what it was 10 years ago, the period in which most of the market share growth of flavorful beer has been taking place?

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/...ousehold-income-monthly-median-since-2000.gif

 

Going from very rich to merely rich?

 

The problem isn't the bubble.
Its the loss of all that beer knowledge and understanding which was carefully built over the years. In place we have chaos and ignorance to the point where so many of the world's classic beers are pissed all over now because they don't have mega hops, the right hops, high ABV %, are easy to find etc etc etc. And the scene is moving at such a pace that its impossible to keep up with where we are right now and where we are going.

Its got nothing to do with being precious.

 

IPA's are over saturated, but almost every other style is very under developed in America.

Wild Ales and Barrel aged Stouts are the next break out styles, because so few breweries have the ability to create the quality beers that people love.

This isn't the case anymore with IPA's, it used to be only a handful of people could do certain hops correctly, now so many people have tried and honed their ability that it is almost hard to find an IPA that isn't solid.

It isn't a bubble so much as a growing mountain, as it keeps growing some will decide to keep climbing, chasing the most difficult top of the mountain beers, while others will be fine setting up base camp halfway up.

It really lets everyone find their niche and favorites, for the time being only IPAs have this ability, because there are so many choices that most people will settle for old community favorites or local gems instead of hunting down a single 4 pack of a one-off Idaho release.

People will always search for the bigger better beer, but I think IPAs have demonstrated that the 'bubble' isn't going to burst.

 

It's more than 3,500 now https://www.brewersassociation.org/statistics/number-of-breweries/

 

I actually doubt this is true, but would be willing to see the stats that prove it is. There are many many folks who drink multiple craft beers every day, and I doubt there are many many folks who eat multiple meals at fine restaurants (the equivalent to craft beer) every day.

I don't have stats to prove my opinion. Doubt you do either.

The thing with bubbles is you only know you have one when you look back and see from a historical perspective there was one.

My opinion is we are likely to gain another 5% of the beer drinking population. We aren't even close to the number of American breweries there were when they were most numerous in late 1800's, and when the population was less than half what it is now. And the fact that you find so much sameness in beer points more to the fact that you likely only drink the one or two most popular styles (which of course have the most examples on shelf). Luckily I like every style of beer I have tried so I do not notice this problem you notice. To me this is the golden age of quality and variety on shelf.

 

Take a look at the number of brewery openings compared to the number that are closing over the last 5 years, they can be found here: https://www.brewersassociation.org/statistics/number-of-breweries/

In 2014 456 breweries opened and only 23 closed.

When the number closing starts to go up way beyond the 5% of those opening from 2014, then we can start talking about a market correction but certainly not a bubble.

I do think we will start to see breweries closing, but I don't think that will happen all over. It will happen in specific markets that have hit a saturation level which will be different for every market.

 

Still a reduction in disposable income... :-)

 

It's the same reason there isn't going to be a restaurant bubble. People aren't likely to speculate on places with such low margins even if demand in the market is growing.

Another point that is often lost in the armchair economic analysis of the BA forums. Hell, not all economists even agree that economic bubbles are a real thing.

 

I think the route to go for new breweries is open up in a town that has the demand for a brewpub and can support it, and be the focal point for THE watering hole there. I look at breweries in Michigan; Shorts in Bellaire, Darkhorse in Marshall and yes when Founder's first started up it was the same way. The market is too crowded to think big at the start.

 

Heck, a small startup brewer in our area is offering 1 year contracts for 20 growler fills for $250 or 10 for $180.

Serving 4-5 current beers (none over 6% ABV) in the 3.3-3.75 range of ratings and located in a high density population area with upper-middle class/wealthy demographic around it. Not sure how well they are doing so far, but I'm guessing pretty good, and alot of neighbors are probably buying into those silly contracts without even considering the price gouge they are getting. Doing the math and knowing quality beers in the store I'd rather grab a 6pk for $9.99 vs. a growler (5.5 beers) from this local brewer for $12.50 - $18 locally. No thank you.

I doubt this type of small brewer business model would exist near Detroit or Rust Belt cities, but does fine in higher income MD area with other small mediocre brewers nearby as well.

 

There is less likely to be a "burst," and more likely that the sub-par breweries will slowly peter out over time. We may even lose some decent ones. So be it. Cream rising to the top and such...

 

The bubble wont burst, but the cream will rise. There will be those that fall

 

Yeah, I'm more inclined to believe that than I was last night. Funny how things change, huh?

I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that places can support themselves by selling on-site (maybe with a kitchen also... maybe a pizza kitchen) and don't necessarily have to have much shelf space at the local package store to carve out a niche and stay in business.

 

I need to visit the northeast.

 

No bubble to burst. Beer prices seem normal to me. However I do believe there are too many of the same tasting IPA's.

 

Yes, yes you do.

 

@chimneyjim

Dammit, you're right. I kept thinking I had missed something but couldn't come up with it. I guess I can cover my ass by saying that the beer numbers I calculated represent current and future beer drinkers.