When is the bubble gonna burst?

No doubt there's all sorts of folks that pound them back. This is a good point. However, In my experience beer drinkers seem to just go from beer to beer to beer very quickly, while the wine and spirit people, though drinking it consistently, don't drink it at the same speed. Three beers in an hour is a common thing amongst folks I know, but I don't often see people do three glasses of wine or three manhattans in an hour.

 

Im sure it already happens. So its not really "when" a startup brewery probably closed today sonewhere in the US. But on a mass scale i dont think itll happen. Beer will always be relevant and people will always want something new. So its back n forth really and right place right time. If there were a million breweries in the us but none in my town. Id feel id make it because im the only one so immediately local.

 

I think the IPA/DIPA and Imperial Stout market is pretty over saturated. Just recently got a box loaded with Tree House beers, some SOS, and HT. Honestly, nothing other than Julius really stood out (and that barely did) compared to so many other local OH IPAs. They all just have very similar flavor profiles and I think the east coast vs west coast IPA differential has really dissipated. On the same note, how many BA imperial stouts can we make that have coffee, vanilla, cinnamon, spices, chocolate, etc? I would like to see more Barleywines, Pale Ales, Hefes, etc. I also wish there were more sour porters out there. When I first heard of this style, it seemed disgusting. Then I tried Averys sour cherry porter and it was phenomenal. Haven't been able to find anything else like it since.

 

This is probably a better phrasing of what I was trying to get at last night. But, if demand keeps increasing, you could just see new package stores built or expansion of existing stores. There's a very successful store in this area that sells only beer and wine, with a heavy emphasis on "craft" beer. You might start to see more stores selling only this type of beer if demand keeps rising. It's not like the amount of shelf space that exists now cannot be expanded. Whether it can be expanded to match the rate of beer growth, or whether it's sustainable, is another question.

Plus, I tend to think a lot of places can support themselves just by on-site sales and whatever they sell in stores is a bonus. I would like to hear feedback from anyone who would know about that, though.

 

When is the thread bubble about the craft beer bubble bursting gonna burst?

 

When is the post bubble about the thread bubble about the craft beer bubble bursting gonna burst?

 

No idea. I just hope your question didn't cause anyone's bubble to burst.

 

I agree with this 100%! I also agree that a bubble is filling up right now, unfortunately.

 

2020.

 

I am less concerned about the number of breweries than the sheer amount of added capacity. Not only are there multiple new brewpubs and microbreweries in almost every metro area, but it seems like close to half of all the national and regional craft brewers are engaged in major capacity expansions. New Belgium, Stone, I think Bell's, Brooklyn, etc. Craft consumption grew by 16% first half 2015 over same period 2014. Sometime, soon, we will have a year when consumption growth slides back into single digits, but capacity growth is over 20%. At that point there will be major over capacity. AB can just carry empty capacity. I do not know who in the craft world is financially strong enough. We may see not just fighting over taps and shelf space, but price cuts. A fair number of breweries (not just brewpubs,which are more like restaurants ) won't make it. I'm not sure it will be 9nly small l9cal ones that will have difficulties.

 

Too many mediocre IPAs and the like. Want Lagers trade some of those Vt brews for Pa Lagers and Pils, at least 5-6 are trade worthy.

 

I happen to love Knob Creek Small batch Single Barrel , and it is north of $50. But.... Elijah Craig 12 is a superb bourbon at half the price, every rag, every rating system has it on top. I love it too, but I opt for Knob Creek.

 

There will be no bubble bursting. Some crappy breweries will close, some will open. The country has evolved. The audience is growing, maybe slightly, but growing.

 

Beer is a way for people who have less money to enjoy what wine 'experts' do. As long as people desire a product at such a price point, there is potentially no bubble. What will happen though, is that certain beers will become far more sought after due to mythical name, and others will fight to move into that position, just like Napa cults and Bordeaux wines. Yet, people will not be able to tell the difference. Can you really tell the difference between a 9.5/10 and a 9.8/10 red wine? Most can't. So the market will become flooded with similar beer, just like wine, but reputation will keep certain brands in a desirable position.

 

I wish this IPA bubble would hit Texas, very few decent IPAs regularly available down here. Bring me the bubble! Bring me the bubble!!!

 

This topic was way more interesting when it was posted last week. This industry moves so fast it already burst and blew up again since we talked about this last Tuesday.

 

Bring 'em on. I will; try them all, lol