When is the bubble gonna burst?

BRILLIANT---U Sir are a Genius-Cheers

 

While I agree that there is a saturation, I do not agree that we have too many breweries. I would suggest that we have too many decent breweries and not enough great ones.

Yes, we surely do not need another "Double Triple Imperial Black India Nutmeg Ale".
For me, the bubble burst when I saw Rogue brew the Sriracha beer. However, our education and experience with beer will keep us away from the gimmicks, and lead us toward the gifts. Think of how far we have come! I am 33 years old and can remember when Samuel Adams and Sierra Nevada were the only other options. Coors Light, or a Sam Adams.

Here is an interesting thought....the next regeneration of beer drinkers (namely current college kids, and high school kids) are a generation that are already used to tons and tons of variety and options. It's not overwhelming to them for the entire beer aisle to be full of different colors and brands. The bubble will burst; but the saturation point is up to them.

 

$ 3.50 for a 12oz bottle of a good beer in a 4 pack is just beer math and I pay that with no problem...no sure what your $9 beer at a bar is but if it's a full 16oz Pint of something special or a 22oz Bomber I'm in on that as well....I buy a lot of singles and the prices are from $ 1.50 to $ 6.00 for a 12oz bottle or can...up to a tall boy at times....all about choices so pay what you want as we all will. As far as a bubble I think the more Brewers out there the better and the business people watch the market so a bubble bursting won't happen but if the beer can't make the cut it will go...it's the business.

 

I think what will happen is that there will be (and already is) a growing movement in the craft beer industry towards local beer. I think as time goes on, more and more people are becoming more educated about beer freshness. Soon the average craft beer drinker will know that a lot of beer styles suffer greatly with more than a few weeks of age. Distributors and stores often cannot get products to shelves within a reasonable amount of time and because of that, as time goes on more and more of that product will not get purchased. I just saw Torpedo at a local store that was from April. Nobody is gonna buy that. I recently took a vacation to San Diego mainly because I wanted to try the IPA's I seek out as fresh as possible. Drinking 4 day old Enjoy By, or Green Flash fresh from the brewery totally ruined me. As far as I'm concerned, drink fresh, local beer. I think many others would agree, if you can't get me an IPA that's less than a month old, I don't want it. Because of this, I think there is really no limit for the small brewery. In my opinion, every neighborhood could support one. They create jobs and stimulate local economy. Nano's and Micro's and Craft breweries are exactly the kind of businesses that America needs right now.

 

If two beers taste identical, buy the cheaper one.

I'm not quite sure what you're asking for. On one hand you're saying it's bad that a few of the thousands of beers out there taste similar, on the other hand you're saying it's bad that there exist experimental beers don't conform to traditional style distinctions. Of course with so many people experimenting, some of the experiments will fail, and some will taste similar to each other. It's still easier than ever to find a beer you like.

Just like the LCD Soundsystem song, Losing My Edge. "We all know what you really want."

 

I do think a regression could happen. Bourbon's big already. Maybe a big wine kick is coming? Scotchy, scotch, scotch?

 

The next 3-5 years.

 

Disagree or not, pretty interesting round-up of traditional marketing reasons why the bubble burst [if it does*] from a macro ad man's viewpoint.

Will stress and fatigue end craft-beer growth?

(I'll give a to that last comment, but I wonder when the neo-prohibitionist movement will rise up [again] over the high ABV of so much of "craft" beer in combination with the continued popularity of "flavored" beers and shandies, etc. One could easily see the rise of "hard root beer" and other pop/fruit-flavored beers resulting in the same sort of media mania and consumer panic that resulted in the banning of caffeinated malt beverages only a few years ago. All you need is some underage kid to do something stupid with NYFRB or some other flavored beer --- and maybe the "craft" segment of the industry won't be able to dodge the bullet as it did generally with the caffeine ban.)

* "Beer Dan" sums up with:

 

I agree, but nearly all of the good stuff in New England is not hitting the local good liquor store, so I think here in RI, at least, we are a year or so behind. Even just going the border into Mass things don't seem much different.

 

I think the great increase of breweries will eventually just go to the brewpubs.

 

Price fatigue. Is craft double? Plenty of craft 6 packs for 8.99 here, and a few for 7.99. Not many macro 6 packs for 3.99 or less. (a thirty pack price is not comparable ).
Flavor fatigue - one more assertion that BMC AAL'S are not worse. That's a fine point to make against someone telling you what to drink. It's not a good base for forecasts. The folks who are shifting to craft do find it to be better. Lots of consumers prefer BMC AAL'S but their numbers continue to shrink. That may change, but Dan has not offered a reason why
Geek fatigue. I never meet these awful geeks in real life. Maybe they are more common among the young, or in craft bars. Somehow the existence of wine snobs has not much hurt the growth of wine.
Price decline. Yeah, with all the new craft capacity coming online, that could happen, and soon. That may kill off many weaker craft breweries. But the volume will shift from those to the stronger breweries that havr just exoanded. It won't go back to BMC. In fact it might draw more share from BMC, as the price gap shrinks.

 

Retail fatigue
Sure that will impact slower moving crafts. Also slower moving BMCs. I mean it isn't like there is not brand proliferation at the macro end of the beer aisle.

 

Health

Identifying NYFRB with craft in general from a health perpectove is absurd I believe most pols, and even many journalists, will understand that. But it is interesting to see that someone who markets for BMC is thinking that way.

 

As I read through the full text of his original blog post I could only think of two things. His header banner indicates the advice is freely offered and worth every cent.

The second is that I can't avoid thinking of some things I once read about "the Jeane Dixon effect." Back in the 50s-60s a self-identified "Psychic" (and Astrologer) by the name of Jeane Dixon had predicted that a Democractic President would be assassinated in the 60s and her fans took that as having come true with President Kennedy in Dallas (she also wasn't averse to taking credit for the prediction), but what was often overlooked was that she had also actually expected that Richard Nixon would defeat John Kennedy in the presidential election campaign that had them running as candidates against each other....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeane_Dixon

It would seem "the Jeane Dixon effect" is alive and well.

 

Beer dan makes it his point to advocate for big beer (which he seems to think is 8n decline only because BMC is too stupid to hire him back, or people like him)

In recent posts he has forecast that SN will launch a hard root beer. He has also gotten upset that founders, buried in its description of its Session IPA, says it will "keep your senses sharp " and suggests this is an illegal health claim, and that if it is allowed, Bud Lite should pit the same words prominently on its label.

IOW, he is a troll.

 

'Zackly. Those fretting over the increase in the number of breweries seem to forget that the population is growing too.

And just FY of the I, the number of wineries in the United States increased by 122 over last year to reach a total of 6,223. That's over twice the current number of craft breweries. Anyone on this site think the winery bubble is going to burst? Or that the number of wineries will impact the number of breweries?

 

I think the focus of the craft beer industry should be on LOCAL flavor and quality. My biggest frustration is finding a great, small local brewery, then seeing them sell out to gain a National market 6-18months later.

I also would like to see these great smaller breweries expand into the lager side of things, rather than "experiment" with IPAs.

I also challenge restaurants and bars to reach out and keep the local brews on tap.

 

The Brewers Association had the number of breweries at 3464 at the end of 2014, so the number of wineries is less than twice. The brewery increase in 2014 was 5 times over the the winery increase. I can see the number of breweries passing the number of wineries in U.S. before the growth slows (it is generally much cheaper to start a brewery than a winery, which is a consideration).

When does the growth slow and stabilize? Things don't grow at double digits forever, so there is a limit. What the limit is, well that is TBD.

 

In 1873 there were 4131 breweries. I think we some more room.

Fact check me, its true.

 

That is on the Brewers Association site, true.

Limiting factors may be agricultural in nature. Barley and hops supplies are strained as it is, and demand will cause more acres to be planted. Eventually the farmers run out ot their suitable land for the crops, and need to find/buy more land in a new location. Water may eventually be a limit in the western states.