Has American craft beer hit its peek?

Discussion in 'Beer Talk' started by HopBroker, Dec 6, 2015.

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  1. HopBroker

    HopBroker Savant (1,158) Jun 5, 2015 Washington
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  2. drtth

    drtth Initiate (0) Nov 25, 2007 Pennsylvania
    In Memoriam

    No it hasn't peaked yet.

    The absolute number of breweries is larger than ever, but on a per capita basis we're not even close to what once existed.

    Also the market for flavorful beers continues to grow as more and more people have the chance to explore such beers.

    There ain't no such thing as a craft beer bubble but there may well be a shake out as people's tastes mature and more and more breweries become consolidated with others.

    But it seems unlikely that business failures of breweries will exceed what is the norm for all small business start ups.
     
    #2 drtth, Dec 6, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2015
  3. AlcahueteJ

    AlcahueteJ Grand Pooh-Bah (3,242) Dec 4, 2004 Massachusetts
    Society Pooh-Bah

    Peek-a-boo. But seriously, no, craft beer has been experiencing double digit growth for over a decade now, with no signs of slowing down.

    OP, is your avatar at Cantillon?
     
  4. mstrcrwly

    mstrcrwly Pundit (912) Dec 21, 2013 New York
    Trader

    can't see it peaking for quite some time..so many good breweries with cutting edge styles and experimentation..outside the box brewing...still plenty more to come..
     
    Karnivool1 likes this.
  5. drtth

    drtth Initiate (0) Nov 25, 2007 Pennsylvania
    In Memoriam

    I'm betting on "yes."
     
  6. yemenmocha

    yemenmocha Grand Pooh-Bah (4,116) Jun 18, 2002 Arizona
    Pooh-Bah

    I wish it would slow down in terms of total number of breweries. Yes you can have too many options, if too many options are crowding out better beer.

    Also in the article:

    "Data shows that “locally made” is important to over half of craft beer buyers."
     
    Brolo75, 2_Beardz, PatrickCT and 2 others like this.
  7. Flashy

    Flashy Pooh-Bah (1,767) Oct 22, 2003 Vermont
    Pooh-Bah

    More handwringing. We are living in a golden age.
     
  8. bluehende

    bluehende Initiate (0) Dec 10, 2010 Delaware

    Markets growing at this rate have time. Especially when market penetration is as low as it is. The growth may slow but the peak of the market is a ways off IMHO.
     
  9. BrewsingBuffalo

    BrewsingBuffalo Initiate (0) Jul 6, 2015 New York

    All one has to do is take a peek at the numbers to see that it's not slowing down :sunglasses:
     
    rgordon, Kuaff and TongoRad like this.
  10. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society Pooh-Bah

    I agree with this 100%.

    Cheers!
     
  11. BeerNDoggerel

    BeerNDoggerel Initiate (0) Mar 13, 2011 Illinois

    How many beer drinkers were there in this country in 1873, the year whose number of breweries is just now being surpassed?
     
  12. GetTheYayo

    GetTheYayo Initiate (0) Aug 26, 2012 Pennsylvania

    Hit its peek? No. Jumped the shark? Yes. When there is a Carhartt Woodsman beer out there (and there is) American craft beer has officially jumped the shark.
     
  13. Angerhaus

    Angerhaus Pooh-Bah (2,020) Oct 1, 2015 Rhode Island
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    OH, Jumped the Shark, sweet name for a beer!
     
  14. Urk1127

    Urk1127 Grand Pooh-Bah (3,790) Jul 2, 2014 New Jersey
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    No. Theres still many styles not even known. Like grodziske (spelling) and petersbier something or other idk. I think it will hit its peak eventually though. And more so often, people hit their peak. Like myself who stopped ticking and started enjoying instead of just anything ive never had.
     
    TCJ0100 and donspublic like this.
  15. HopBroker

    HopBroker Savant (1,158) Jun 5, 2015 Washington
    Trader

    Haha bingo! Public brewing session a few weeks ago!
     
    drtth likes this.
  16. GetTheYayo

    GetTheYayo Initiate (0) Aug 26, 2012 Pennsylvania

    I can see the label now. An overweight neckbeard riding a great white (what else) with a pack of American Spirits in the front pocket of his flannel shirt.
     
  17. HopBroker

    HopBroker Savant (1,158) Jun 5, 2015 Washington
    Trader

    For styles and flavor, I agree that it hasn't hit anywhere near its peak, but overall the number of breweries is quite saturated no? Yes, of course there were more at one time but I don't think ~4800 breweries in this day and age is a reasonable number to keep them all 'successful'.

    We have different definitions of successful, hence the ' '.
     
  18. dennis3951

    dennis3951 Initiate (0) Mar 6, 2008 New Jersey

    Hit it's peek how? I doubt craft beer has it it's peek in market share. It may hit it's peek in innovation soon. It's has to be hard to keep brewing if you have to dream up a new beer every 30 days.
     
    Norica likes this.
  19. HopBroker

    HopBroker Savant (1,158) Jun 5, 2015 Washington
    Trader

    Exactly. A eucalyptus beer is a bit much for example, but market share is not anywhere near peaking. I just think market share will grow more with established local breweries, not 100 unknown ones that pop up in any given city in a few months. Also, the local ones need to he truly local, not like Elysian for example, but we can save that discussion for a 1000 other threads
     
  20. Wasatch

    Wasatch Grand High Pooh-Bah (6,062) Jun 8, 2005 Colorado
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    If you would have asked this question 5 years ago, and whoever said yes, well, the answer was a definitely NO! More than 2000 new breweries have come along since then, that is huge. I'm sure most are not that great, but I've heard most are pretty respectable. Still, I will say, no we are not close to the peak.

    Cheers!
     
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