More Craft Brewers = More Mediocrity?

The best breweries in my state are only a few years old so I disagree

 

You have to be careful in comparing numbers. You are comparing dollars to brewers. I would assume new placements are skewed to small breweries. I will put it another way. If dollars from sales that include Sierra Nevada and Sam Adams are up 10% I would again assume it might take 20% more new breweries to suck up that demand. You can make the case the other way too. If it is the big boys getting the increase there is less room for small brewers. The two numbers you compare are not completely comparable without other info to bridge brewers and dollars.

One of the reasons PA is doing so well is that their laws are friendly to new brewers. Specifically the self distribution.

 

that's pretty much what I was getting at too.

 

I might argue that all of the new choices are either causing better beers to get old sitting on the shelf or to no longer be available. There are several local pale ales and IPAs with noticeable off flavors which are taking tap handles from more established and higher quality beers. For the average consumer, local and/or new often trumps consistent quality. In turn, the overall quality of the offerings decreases. When lower quality beers push better ones out of the market, the knowledgeable consumer still suffers.

 

au contraire, I was looking at distribution numbers (shelf placements). So, using your example (note, all my numbers are hypothetical, I'm not going to bother to look up the actuals), if there are only two craft brewers in 2014, Sam Adams and Sierra Nevada who only make Boston Lager and Pale Ale and they sell their beer at only one store each (2 placements), then in 2015 they come out with Rebel IPA and Torpedo, then my total distribution figure goes from 2 to 4 (assuming every store that had the first two also took distribution of the second).

While total number of breweries is an important part of the formula here, more important is the number of packages on the shelf. This shows the number of options the customer has available to them, whether it's one brewery making 100 beers or 100 breweries making 1 beer.

 

I was hoping someone would bring this up. @kellyst brought up some other good criteria in the local/mediocre thread. Along those lines, I think with craft beer going more mainstream it's just the case that many people can't tell the difference, not just with flaws, but between some very low rated stuff and the best examples available in one's market. Some carry their brand loyalty personality trait into craft beer and don't really get promiscuous and try other beers. Why drink a Union Jack IPA, Stone IPA, Sculpin, etc. when you're already comfortable with Indian Wells Amnesia IPA that has been your go-to IPA on the shelf for a few years now?
http://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/619/44185/
Hey, people do buy that and similar beers over and over and over, and it takes up shelf space.

Nail on the head!


And this does as well from @Sponan :

"I might argue that all of the new choices are either causing better beers to get old sitting on the shelf or to no longer be available. There are several local pale ales and IPAs with noticeable off flavors which are taking tap handles from more established and higher quality beers. For the average consumer, local and/or new often trumps consistent quality. In turn, the overall quality of the offerings decreases. When lower quality beers push better ones out of the market, the knowledgeable consumer still suffers."

 

You may see that, but seeing is subjective. The question is, are there market statistics to back up your viewpoint?

 

I would have to disagree with the OP that the newest craft breweries around here are producing mediocre beer. Hell, 5 years ago the only craft breweries (that I can remember) were Prairie, Choc, Marshall, Mustang, & COOP. Sure, most of you on your high horses would think that 2 or 3 of those produce mediocre beer because they don't make a BBA-Vanilla-Coffee-Cinnamon Imp. Stout that weighs in @ 15%ABV, but they aren't catering to you & their business is still doing just fine. The newer craft breweries (i.e., RoughTail, Anthem, Iron Monk, The Willows Family) are all making fantastic beer for being less than ~3 years in at this point.

I'm kind of shocked that you're using Widmer as a benchmark for Hefeweizen, instead of Weihenstephaner, which has more than triple the number of reviews and the average rating is more than a point higher.

 

A fair point, but I consider Weihenstephaner the world's best hefe, I would be happy with above average (I would consider Widmer pretty average).

 

Yes, I am looking at statistics which back up my viewpoint.

 

Thanks for the clarification. Do you have any feel for new placements as to the retail dollars they bring in vs the average. I like real numbers and this would put my head around how to compare the numbers.

 

Interesting. I find the exact opposite to be true.
Don't get me wrong, there's still a good amount of decent craft beer to be found but there's certainly a larger ratio of mediocre stuff on the shelves than there was, say, 20 years ago.
Buying craft beer is definitely more of a crapshoot these days than in the past.
Of course, that's just my take on it.

 

I first noticed it about ten years ago.

But oddly enough, there are now more Craft Breweries than ever before. So yes: More mediocre beer, too.

But get ready for much, much more!

 

People seem to be suggesting that a brewery should have some leeway in terms of how long it comes into its own in making great beer. These are businesses first and foremost, and while I can forgive maybe one bad or average batch because they are still learning their brew house, I cannot forgive years of average beer just because a halfway decent DIPA comes along. Early brewers that are now famous had huge obstacles between where they are now and what they were, one of the largest being they had to convince people of the merit of their decisive-tasting beer. This is a luxury newer brewers do not have to worry about and in fact are now in a race to make the most outlandish beers.

Nobody seems to care about their porter, amber, or pale ale. I like brett, barrel aging, and huge hop bills just as much as the next guy, but I can't excuse a brewer whose lineup is completely average minus one or two seasonals. For example, compare Bell's regular lineup to any new brewers and there is just a huge divide.

 

I completely agree. Try the new beers. If one finds them "too mediocre" for such a "discerning" palate, don't buy it again. People pour their passion and treasure into these ventures and I deeply respect the commitment. When I travel I always try the local stuff, and have nothing to argue about. I'm an easy customer and do not take "mediocre" beer personally.

 

For me, that's actually been one of the fringe benefits of the PA case law. Until relatively recently that couldn't really happen to me here...

When one buys beer a case at a time it creates very conservative habits in deciding what to buy.


As you say this site is great for avoiding bad choices and still giving the new kids a chance.

 

Agreed