Black Tuesday Allocations

All of this is based on speculation, and whether or not the demand for BT has increased more than the supply.

I believe it has, based on several factors.

The craft beer market has been consistently increasing it's share in the overall marketplace.

The Bruery has been expanding their barrel aged beer releases, enough so that certain beers are going into major distribution (fruet, oude tart, tart of darkness for example).

To my knowledge, and please correct me if I'm wrong, they have not expanded their barrel aging facility. From my potentially limited understanding (not a home brewer), it doesn't seem probable for them to have brewed this years batch after expanding their facility. Please correct me if I'm erroneous in this regard.

Lines for the Bruery's beer a day in the month of may were noticeably worse than during the 12 beers of Christmas for more sought after/rarer beers. This may be influenced by the presence of chapman students, but I have a hard time believing that there's a significant enough percentage of 21-22 year olds with the finances or interest in beers of that calibre.

And, as previously mentioned, beer centric events have been selling out in record time for at least the past 9 months. 2011 reserve society lasted weeks. 2012 lasted roughly 8 hours, and roughly doubled the total number of RS members.

Relevant to RS doubling, allocations have stayed the same as last year, in regards to total bottles available.

Ill gladly eat crow if everyone that wants BT gets some, but I doubt it.

Like I said, it's a gamble

 

Are you talking about expansion of the brew house (July 2012) or the large offsite barrel house ( 2011)?

 

It seems kind of taboo to talk about, but I think a lot of the increase in demand was fueled by the reselling of bottles via eBay and other means. I for one am hoping the recent crack down by eBay results in less demand from those who may have trouble trying to turn them for profit.

On the other hand I tried BT for the first time only a few months ago and my taste buds will be adding to the demand!

 

I wasnt aware they had expanded the offsite barrel house. Thats a mark in favor of BT lasting longer this year, though it doesnt completely persuade me. There's a been a significant increase in what i consider 'flagship' BA beers from the Bruery. It would hurt the hype they've worked so hard to build around BT for them to drastically increase their production of it.

Again, i dont believe the expansion of the brew house took place with enough time for them to brew 2012 BT, especially since the employee bottles/pours were taking place labor day weekend. Thats four+ months between brewing, barrel aging, and bottling (The fermentation tanks and other brewing systems were installed at least a couple weeks before the tasting room went live july 4th).

 

Again, another unknown quantity regarding people buying it to throw up on ebay, though that should hurt some of the demand. How much is going to be a complete mystery.

BT is a great beer, IMO better with a little age on it to mellow the heat. Anytime you plan on hitting the tasting room/provisions, BM me! I live a few miles away.