Craft Beer's Looming Crisis

I think I get the connection that he's trying to make with regard to fruit beers (which others have pointed out doesn't make a lot of sense since there weren't a whole lot of fruit infused beers at that time), however he interjects his own opinion of fruit beers a little bit too much:

"And there is also the fact that fruit beers are flooding the market, which is truly a sign of the apocalypse. (Mango IPA, anyone?) This will not end well."

"And then there are all those fruit beers."

"And just maybe there will be less fruit beer, but that remains to be seen."

Dude, I don't really care how you personally feel about fruit beers. There are obviously quite a few people that like them. Tell me the reasons you think there is a craft beer crisis looming and leave your beer style preferences out of it.

 

I like Victory, but your list might include Ballast Point?

 

Agreed on the fruit beer. I agree with many of his points, but it comes off as "I hate this popular style of beer and the industry is doomed because of it" as his main point.

 

Those were the malt-based wine coolers- California Cooler, Sun Country, and Marcus James that clogged up the market as demand consolidated into just Marcus James. Michael Crete, the founder of California Cooler made out like a bandit- the lucky dog "sold out" just in time. It soon died. Brown Forman bought it and Gallo's Bartles and James was the last cooler standing after huge marketing dollars from Gallo flooded the airwaves. These beverages- I think- were the forerunners of all the gaggle of fruit "beers" all over the place these days.

 

Yeah, Grapefruit Sculpin did nothing for me and I'm very hesitant to try the watermelon version. Leave that, and other, IPAs alone! They will survive on their own merits.

 

It is an opinion piece, and (as mentioned before) Lew's been drinking and writing about beer a helluva long time -- his opinions are backed by truck loads of experience (and the right amount of sarcasm).

And I agree with him -- fruit-infused beer just isn't right. Don't like the new ones, could never stomach the fruit Lambics back when I started getting into beer (even before '95-'96).

 

May I suggest that IMO you don't need to be hesitant about trying the watermelon version. You definitely should leave that one on the shelf and immediately return it to the shelf in the event you are curious and want to read the lable.

To reveal my biases, even with a fondness for grapefruit flavors I found the Grapefruit Sculpin to be a one-and-done for me. Similarly the Hell or High Watermelon Wheat Beer from 21st Amendment was something I barely finished.

 

Magic Hat #9?

 

Oh, THAT looming crisis. I thought this was another thread about regional beer styles....

It is tough to predict or model the craft beer industry with such a limited track record. The stock market has been around a lot longer and the best eggheads are scratching their brains trying to figure out why the economy isn't crashing when historical indicators say it should. It isn't a science unless it is science.

 

Thing is, these modern iterations of "wine" coolers are pricey and likely a good profit item for the "brewer". These products will always have a market as long as new drinkers emerge.

 

Click bait.

The only thing I am worried about is the great brewers need to compete with the crappy to mediocre Brewers for hops.

Great beer is not a fad, this is here to stay.

 

I saw the watermelon on the mix 6 shelf. Being a ticker...well, you know. No more GF Sculpin in my crystal ball.

 

That's a good point. It is an opinion piece and should be read as such. But it is an opinion piece about the potential shakeout of the craft beer scene, not an opinion piece on how the author feels about various beer styles. However, he tries to imply that his personal dislike of fruit beers is somehow relevant to the topic of a potential craft beer shakeout. This is what is not computing.

And what does the bolded even mean? Just isn't right in terms of what? I feel like that is an opinion that is trying to be made to sound like fact. I'll bet that there are a whole lot of folks (even those that have been drinking and writing about beer for a helluva lot longer than either you or the author) that would disagree with this sentiment. Which is why it isn't really relevant. For the record, I fall somewhere in the middle. I enjoy some, but many are just not for me.

Also, just because someone has been doing something for a long time and they have experience at it doesn't necessarily mean they are good at it. Or even qualified. Often it does, but sometimes not. Generally speaking of course -- I'm not referring to this author in particular. I'm sure we can all think of people that have been doing something for a long time and they are experienced at it ... but they suck at it.

 

Thats quite true, and sometimes predictions fail.

But on the other hand in the case of the craft beer industry it is quite possible to find parallel and/or historical situations which compare in many ways, make the predictions, and examine the predictions for any mismatches in the analog that would invalidate the predictions. (Not everything has to be done statistically. )

For example, for the last 5-8 years or so the craft brewing industry seems to have been exceptional in that it has not been showing the 50% startup failure rate common across the board, regardless of which industries one examines. The craft brewing industry has also been riding a wave of growth. So what happens when that wave begins to show signs of flattening? (Eg, there are other threads in which it has been reported that the growth rate of brewing capacity in the industry is currently exceeding the growth of rate of dollars being spent by customers.)

So what would one predict happening when supply grows faster than demand and exceeds it for an extended period of time?

 

Yeah, okay -- if you aren't getting the opinion of others -- or sarcasm, it's not worth taking it any further.

As said, Lew's been doing it a long time; has been editor of magazines and published books -- he's good at it, and his article is well written and full of thought-provoking info.

I agree with him on many things, and laugh along with him on others (yes, probably because I'm of the same mind), but that doesn't mean we're as wrong as you want to imply -- it just means our opinion (and experience) differ from yours. If you can't accept that, I'd say I'm sorry -- but I'm really not.

 

Boom. And other ingredients as well (not to mention water over here!), which has or potentially will drive costs up too. I believe in everyone deserving of their fighting chance, but in large markets (such as S. California, etc.), this flooding of mediocrity has become a little too excessive. Too many people are trying to "cash in", and are carelessly pumping out inferior products. Maybe a purge is necessary . Cheers!

 

I'll be watching out for that Double Dry-Hopped Imperial Grapefruit Sculpin

I cannot think of any friend or acquaintance that has been doing something for a long time and is not great at it. But I can sure think of some that I don't know that I think may be bad at what they do, but that's not my business. None of them are beer writers or brewers.

 

Indeed not.

To me sweet fruity beer shows a possible new avenue of attracting folks into the community.

I was hoping someone would explain that fruit beer thing, he repeats it a couple of times.

 

So you basically have no response to my post. You could have just said that ... or not responded at all. It would have been better than just repeating yourself and not addressing any of the points I made in my post.

Are you this guy's brother or something? The bolded means nothing ... I know of plenty of editors and folks that have published books that are not very good at what they do. Can you really say that everyone that publishes a book is an expert in their field? Just doesn't mean anything to me. Yet you keep using this as justification that everything this author says should be taken as gospel.

You are correct that I am not getting it. Please explain it to me. This is what I asked in my post and your response was basically 'you just don't get it, so I'm not going to explain it to you'.

I wasn't trying to get into an argument ... just legitimately curious about the whole fruit beer aspect of the article. I feel it really takes away from the point he is trying to make. However, since you seem to be taking this all much too personally, I will drop the topic.

Good talk.

 

I remember fruited wheat beers being a 'thing' back then. All brewpubs had one for sure, and they started to show up on the shelves. They wereusually not very threatening (or good, for that matter ).
F'rexample: