Chocolate Rain vs Czar Jack

I'm saying that to everyone, not just you. Otherwise, little-known breweries with like 60 or 100 bottle released would be deemed "whales" as well. Which we all know is not the case. And FYI, I'm on your side, I don't see why a Czar Jack shouldn't land a Chocolate Rain, you just need to find the right person. But, as has been said above, this trade has been done a few times over, so at least some people feel it is fair.

 

It's $34 + tax + having to be in the RS + the cost of shipping for half the society that doesn't actually live near The Bruery. Regardless, the difference between $35-$40 is nit-picking.

Ultimately bottle counts only matter insomuch as they are relative to the demand for a beer. CJ isn't terribly hyped, CR is hyped through the roof. I'm not saying a 1:1 isn't fair, but I'm not sure this is a scenario where bottle count is terribly applicative.

 

Czar Jack has had a bit of hype in the past as a growler-only release. I also don't think a person should add-in the price of domestically shipping their RS stuff to themselves. That's like trading for a bottle of Hunahpu's and then claiming that it is worth $5 more because it has been traded for.

I suppose I shouldn't really care. However, there are a number of outrageous FT/ISOs out there due to a lot of n00bs and it isn't helping anyone to not point these things out. If Czar Jack had released 1,100 instead of 200, would it trade the same? If Black Note had released 200 instead of 1,100, would it trade the same? Both were released in similar fashion, in that the release was designed for locals. I'm not sure if Black Note really had that much more hype, but it was a lot harder to get before the recent release. Their scores now are about the same and Black Note has 30 more reviews. I would nearly guarantee that there have been a considerable amount of 1:1 CR b2 : BN trades that have gone down.

I still find 1:1 to be fair considering hype, bottle count, price and allocation. If two traders figure out something different based on their cellar availability or taste, that's up to them.

 

I honestly don't think there's much difference between 200 bottles and 2000. What matters more at that range is the desirability/hype of the beer. CJ certainly has some buzz, but it's largely unknown outside of the hardcore traders. Black Note has the Bell's name and pedigree, which vaulted it up there. The Bruery is The Bruery, and they pretty much drive the hype train. In short, CJ has 300 wants, CR and BN have about 1000. That gap is realistically the difference in hype.

Again, I'm not at all saying 1:1 is unfair, I just see the larger trader mentality dynamic going on that would make a 1:1 there tough.

 

I like it how you choose to exclude Town Hall's name/pedigree/whatever from your post.

 

Because Town Hall doesn't have anything close to the name of Bell's or The Bruery. Bell's is distributed to half the country, and has numerous wide releases that beer geeks go nuts for. Nearly every bottle The Bruery makes is in demand and all over the trade forums. I think it would be rare to find even a casual beer geek who does not at least know these two breweries, and I'd guess that most have tried multiple releases from both of them.

Town Hall? Nobody knows who they are outside the state unless they study the top 100 list and have seen Masala Mama's long stay on there. Even less people have ever tried a beer from TH. TH has 3 beers with over 100 reviews, and is what? 15 years old? The Bruery has 14 beers with over 100 reviews and has only been around for 4 years. Bell's popular beers can be measured in the 1000's of reviews.

Note that I'm not knocking Town Hall in the least here - I think they're a fantastic brewery and I'm sure Czar Jack is world class. But they simply are not as well recognized as The Bruery or Bell's. And they are certainly much less tasted. That doesn't mean they don't make beer that is just as good as Bell's or The Bruery, it just means that people don't know enough about their beer, and that is a huge factor in trade value.

 

Town Hall's pedigree at major festivals (through awards and accolades, not BA opinion via "Top 100") is high in comparison to any brewery. Part of the issue with Town Hall not having many reviews is the fact that in MN they cannot distribute via any avenue other than their restaurant. (They and others are working in getting this changed, btw). This is incredibly restrictive on their volume, which in turn, limits the number of reviews.

Another component is my own, but I believe I am not the only one who feels this way. It is difficult (and socially awkward, depending on who is there with me) to review a beer in a social setting that is not solely focused on beer. I also prefer to review with as little influence from others as possible. Bottles make reviewing much easier, since I can open a bottle in a setting that I don't feel rude or awkward doing so with the intent to review.

When it comes to trading, let the two parties decide. As has been said before, if you want something, post an ISO:FT. If someone accepts it, then you have a fair trade. Personally, I have no problem with trading over $4$ for something I want, not do I expect someone to accept my offer of a lower $ value beer because I believe it is equal in demand or prestige.

 

Fair points, but ultimately, there is a reason why Czar Jack has 300 wants and Chocolate Rain has 1000 wants. I attribute that to the fact that Town Hall isn't nearly as well known. In fact, if you assume the beers are more or less equal quality, then what else would you attribute that giant gap in wants to?

 

If # of Wants was the metric of desirability, M has 341. Does that make CR more desirable than M?

The reason for the low number of Wants for CJ might as well be the low availability. There is simply not enough to go around. Then again what is? Not CR for sure!

I didn't mean to start an argument but I found it a little odd that TH was omitted while other brewers were mentioned in your post to which I had first replied. nickd717 posted an analysis a while back in which TH turned out to be one of the more buzzed/sought after breweries. You could question his formulation but fact remains that TH gets decent press on BA. Anything sought after that I have ever received in trade has involved something Town Hall most of the times (granted that it's either their flagship pr special releases). So I am pretty convinced in their desirability. Quality? I am sure you have no doubts about that.

 

I agree with your point 100%. Exposure is everything when it comes to desirability. With that being true, I don't think Town Hall (as much as I think they make top-notch beer) will reach the level of wants that Bell's and The Bruery enjoy without major expansion.

 

Yeah, I always feel a little odd reviewing beers in TH.

 

I would actually argue that CR is more desirable than M from a pure volume standpoint. The people that want M want it really freaking badly, but I bet more people actually know what CR is. M is pretty obscure to all but the most hardcore. Also, I think 'wants' on a current beer vs 'wants' on a retired beer are two entirely different metrics. I don't put 'M' on my wants because I know I'm not going to ever get it.

That said, I would agree that limited bottle counts can affect the number of wants. However, I'd bet most people don't realize CJ was only a 200 bottle release. I'll be honest - until this thread I didn't even know it was bottled - I thought it was just an occasional growler only release.

 

So you acknowledge that the number of bottles available to go around could affect the number of Wants? In that case you have answered your own question.

Re: desirability
Adding M or anything in that league to Wants doesn't serve any purpose so my example was a little flawed. Nor would I argue whether or not CR:CJ is a fair trade. I suppose my only point is that TH is not as obscure on BA, and certainly not in the trading forums.

 

I think it's complicated and you can't draw a line that simplistically. It's a factor, yes, but not nearly as large of a factor as the fact that Town Hall isn't as well known as The Bruery or Bell's. M is a retired beer, which is a bigger factor than bottle count, because regardless of bottle count, actively brewed beers are always being made.

 

> as the fact that Town Hall isn't as well known as The Bruery or Bell's

If this is a fact, I won't argue it.

---

Let's face it, someone joins this website, adds every beer on his Wants that he has heard of... Pliny the Younger, whatever. The number of Wants goes up... big deal, who cares?!

Find me someone who trades/follows the trading forums on a semi/regular basis and hasn't heard of Town Hall. I will shut up.

Also:

• Nearly every bottle The Bruery makes is in demand and all over the trade forums.
• Town Hall? Nobody knows who they are outside the state.

Strongly disagree, in regards to the trading forums.

 

Don't really understand why you guys are arguing with cbeer88. His points are fair and accurate. I'd say they're borderline indisputable. While Town Hall may have plenty of industry laurels (I wouldn't know -- just going by what one of you said), it's not widely known among craft beer consumers, and therefore it's demand is significantly decreased. And trading is, at it's core, supply and demand based.

 

I haven't had Chocolate Rain and am not going to go out trying to get it anytime soon. That being said Czar Jack is incredible, low bottle numbers, is from Town Hall (while not as established now, just wait a few years). Town Hall really doesn't make a crappy beer. I would be hesitant to trade a Czar Jack for a Chocolate Rain. I think it's a perfectly even trade given the rarity, price, etc equation (only because Czar Jack is not as hyped cause it's a newer brewery). Otherwise I would think the Czar Jack would command more.

 

I think you are making many of our points here. The difference is that CJ is under the radar compared to CR. Given that Town Hall isn't nearly as well known and the wants ratio is as high as it is should tell you something.

Just keep in mind the California hype train would hype up Old Milwaukee if it was local. I mean how could anything compare to beer from California?

 

Here's a wrinkle... How would the value of a properly stored growler of last year's Czar Jack compare in value? I know someone sitting on one for no other reason than he found it in the back of garage cellar fridge after forgetting about it. I believe they counter pressure fill at Town Hall for what it's worth.

Personally, I told him to drink (hoping I'd be there for the share).

 

I honestly don't even know what we're debating in this thread anymore. All I've really been saying all along is that Town Hall is less popular, thus has less trade demand, and thus trades for less compared to similar beers from The Bruery or Bell's. It sounds like you agree with that at least, but others seemed to be challenging the notion that Town Hall is less "desirable" than The Bruery.