The Craft Beer Boom Has Gone Flat

Depending on the type of list (Contract, Regional, Large, Brewpub, Microbrewery, etc) the Brewers Association "fine print" says:

 

And they've already tried it and failed with brands like Budweiser American Ale.

 

Thanks for clarifying - I think I transposed a billion dollars (sale price) and million barrels (production) in my rapidly aging brain. Still a shit load of beer not in the numbers.

 

This is inevitable. After a while all these small breweries will just be taking business from each other. Very probably for no other reason than one brewery being closer to the consumer's place of residence or employment than the others.

 

OTOH, MC's "Blue Moon" line outsells every "craft" brewer save for Boston and Yuengling (and Blue Moon Belgian White apparently outsells every craft beer) and AB's "Shock Top" brand would be in the "Craft" Top 5 if it were a stand-alone indie brewery, just behind New Belgium.

 

I may have missed this, but are you certain that the BA isn't including that production?

It certainly wouldn't behoove them to omit it.

 

Impressive.

 

I think the industry has evolved to four types:
1) ABI, MillerCoors and a number of importers that have the scale to keep retailers and distributors in business (they also provide somewhat of a cashout or succession plan for those that follow on this list and expand distribution of those brands without incurring (too much) debt or expense)
2) National and multi-regional having the scale to sell chain retailers and distributors
3) City/county/state that can support a small number of distributors and retailers
4) Local that don't sell beer outside their tap room

Always brings back to the theme that all provide value to beer and fill a niche no single one can.

 

Yeah, add up AB and MC acquired breweries' barrelages, along with Lagunitas, Ballast Point, Founders and a few others (CBA, UB's Olde Saratoga/Mendocino, NAB's Magic Hat/Pyramid) and it looks like over 4 million barrels of ex-craft beers.

 

Blue Moon was just shy of 2,000,000 barrels last year (and still growing)

 

It's not that hard to find out who is on the "good guys" list and who is on the "pariah" list, according to the BA: https://www.brewersassociation.org/...ssociation-releases-top-50-breweries-of-2016/

 

It feels like the direction we are going is that local brewpubs will start competing against local bars until every local bar has to become a brewpub to have their own unique draw.

 

Yes. That's also why the syndicated numbers (IRI and Nielsen) never match up since they include Blue Moon, Shock Top, Ballast Point, etc in their definition of craft.

 

Some Brewers Association reports (like this mid-year one from '16) which uses IRI data list two different "craft" categories:

Curiously, that asterisk:

And Yuengling is the B.A.'s largest "craft brewer" (since they don't count BBC's cider and FMB barrelage).

 

That would be because they compete in the same market space as "independent".

The BA's definition does not define the entire "craft" market.

 

The definition of what BA includes in the numbers:

An American craft brewer is small, independent and traditional. Small: Annual production of 6 million barrels of beer or less (approximately 3 percent of U.S. annual sales). Beer production is attributed to the rules of alternating proprietorships. Independent: Less than 25 percent of the craft brewery is owned or controlled (or equivalent economic interest) by an alcoholic beverage industry member that is not itself a craft brewer. Traditional: A brewer that has a majority of its total beverage alcohol volume in beers whose flavor derives from traditional or innovative brewing ingredients and their fermentation. Flavored malt beverages (FMBs) are not considered beers.

 

The only thing BA has created in all this is a real cluster fuck

 

How does the BA reconcile the ESOPs (like New Belgium)? After all its owned by employees and its probable more than 25% of them are not brewers (all the people in non-brewing operations, tap room, sales, procurement, etc.).

 

Yes, I'm familiar with that, but just look at their list I linked above. Here are just some of those that participate in the craft market (as would be defined by a marketing segment definition rather than a political definition): Lagunitas, Craft Brew Alliance, Ballast Point, and Founders, not to mention Blue Moon, Shock Top, Goose Island, and soon, Anchor.