Trade Value Thread (July 2018)

Discussion in 'Trade Talk' started by blkhawk14, Jul 3, 2018.

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  1. blkhawk14

    blkhawk14 Initiate (0) Nov 14, 2014 Minnesota
    Trader

    Hope all our US compatriots have a fun and safe 4th! Let's get this started

    The guidelines for this are the following:
    1. Under no circumstances should cash value, offers to exchange cash for beer, offers to exchange beer for cash, offers to exchange cash for prime grade A sirloin or really anything involving cash at all be mentioned. This will lock the thread immediately and you will be shamed. If you have to use a reference, I would recommend the gold standard of RVRU (relative vanilla rye units)
    2. Don't be vague. No one really knows if you're ISO or FT. No beer has a singular value, so asking "what can I get with X?" will result with a million answers. "What does it take to land Y?" Again please help give us an idea of what you have FT or where about you're at to give an idea of locals, etc.
    3. The purpose of this thread is to help users out and introduce some dialogue and conversation into the merits of a particular proposed trade. It is meant to help users new and old and be a bit more dynamic than the "completed trades" section.
    4. Have fun with this!
     
  2. Mplsbrew

    Mplsbrew Pundit (871) Mar 21, 2013 Minnesota
    Trader

    Would an Ardea be able to land BBT or Maman 17 (IP in St Louis)?
     
  3. Gregwilsonstl

    Gregwilsonstl Initiate (0) Aug 11, 2015 Missouri
    Trader

    Would either side need a plus in TWCP Maman for 2018 Handjee? I dont see any completed trades for TWCP Maman.
     
  4. Aetherbulb

    Aetherbulb Zealot (527) Oct 10, 2014 Texas
    Trader

    Think Ardea would have to add a solid plus for BBT. Probably along the lines of an FOb3. Maman may need a small plus as well right now but should be close.
     
    Mplsbrew likes this.
  5. Aetherbulb

    Aetherbulb Zealot (527) Oct 10, 2014 Texas
    Trader

    Think handjee may have to add from what I have seen.
     
  6. blkhawk14

    blkhawk14 Initiate (0) Nov 14, 2014 Minnesota
    Trader

    Ardea is potentially close to Maman 17 (although may need a small +). Needs a pretty decent add for BBT i'd think
     
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  7. blkhawk14

    blkhawk14 Initiate (0) Nov 14, 2014 Minnesota
    Trader

    well at least we are on the same page!
     
  8. y2kawakami

    y2kawakami Initiate (0) Sep 11, 2015 Hawaii
    Trader

    Now that I have a newborn, I'm looking at turning some of my beers into a bottle of whiskey/bourbon or 2 since a small pour here and there might be easier to manage than a bottle. Never traded for any yet, so I'd need some help on fair value (assuming I'd have to give up a little more for beer:whiskey) Wondering what kinds of beers I could expect package together to get a bottle?

    I have: Midnight Still Coconut and Cognac, Han Shot First (previous batch, not most recent), Space Trace and JTR, Rusty Nail '17, CCBomb, Grey Monday'15, Cantillon CSG, Inu Stout + Coconut

    Wondering about: ORVW, Lot B, Weller 12 or Antique, any other suggestions I should consider

    Thanks in advance
     
  9. blkhawk14

    blkhawk14 Initiate (0) Nov 14, 2014 Minnesota
    Trader

    You've no question got the ammo for 12 or antique. ORVW/Lot B usually goes for single big bottles although a combo is not out of the question. I would think you could easily ask for W12+Antique for the 2 midnight stills but the bourbon tax is repressive sometimes so who knows. Would take a big overpay on your end to land ORVW and lot B (seems like it when trading quantity for bourbon)
     
  10. Beer_Economicus

    Beer_Economicus Pooh-Bah (2,698) Apr 8, 2017 Ohio
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    I agree with this more than the post by @Aetherbulb . Ardea + FO B3 I think is more of an exception than a guideline. I think for BBT, you're looking more Ardea + Prop 17 than ardea + FOb3.
     
  11. Maerran

    Maerran Initiate (0) Feb 19, 2018 Sweden

    Hey guys, very new to trading here and will be flying over to Boston with large bottles of Cantillon Blabaer 2018. I have been offered Hill Farmstead bottles such as Madness & Civilization #10, Flora Cherry Raspberry Kiwi and Barrel-Aged Dorothy 18’ b3. In my mind Blabaer is highly valued but I don't know the value of Hill Farmstead. Due to the rarity of Cantillon Blabaer I don't agree in $4$ trade, could I get some help with what I should be expecting to get in the form of Hill Farmstead bottles or from similar breweries?
     
  12. Beer_Economicus

    Beer_Economicus Pooh-Bah (2,698) Apr 8, 2017 Ohio
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    This question is technically outside the lines of what this thread normally shoots for, but I want to offer some help that will redirect it.

    Ignoring value altogether, is there anything you want? I mean this about ANY beer you want - not specifically HF beer. If so, what is it. That's the first place to start. Seeing who needs to add after that is where you go.
    (There offer is low, and I would add much more to it as an example.)
     
  13. blkhawk14

    blkhawk14 Initiate (0) Nov 14, 2014 Minnesota
    Trader

    A 750 of Blabaer can go $4$ with equally desirable beers, but none of the HF mentioned would ever go 1:1 with blabaer. I'm not sure there is comparable HF it would go for as most bottles fall below it and stuff like art is slightly above it and ann FAR above it.
     
  14. Slack

    Slack Pooh-Bah (2,018) Feb 14, 2012 Virginia
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    Would 3 Sump variants Adola, Burundi, la lajas, land a GNVP B2?
     
  15. rmpic82

    rmpic82 Maven (1,268) Jan 27, 2017 Kansas
    Trader

    BAA > value than Fundamental Forces. This has been true always and forever, correct? Currently engaged with someone who thinks Fundamental Forces has greater value than BAA '18...am I off here?
     
  16. D09daryl

    D09daryl Crusader (446) Mar 11, 2017 California
    Trader

    Theyre probably closer than you might think now, tho I'd agree BAA is a little higher than FF. I think you definitely see more BAA moving than FF tho, so that's probably their argument
     
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  17. Beer_Economicus

    Beer_Economicus Pooh-Bah (2,698) Apr 8, 2017 Ohio
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    Values seem pretty obscure with BAA. It sure seems like BAA is just barely above Assassin (Orange), but then you talk to people about BAA, and they say oh, you need a FO plus." Or you talk to people about Maman and BAA, and people say that BAA > Maman, which also seems not true - especially when compared to Assassin.

    Somehow, despite BAA dropping in value, it seems like some people's valuations of it have not changed much at all.

    So, TBH, I think the value of BAA is pretty blurry, and depends highly on the person trading it.
     
    rmpic82 likes this.
  18. rmpic82

    rmpic82 Maven (1,268) Jan 27, 2017 Kansas
    Trader

    I get that trade vals are a bit squishy - and I'm not even necessarily trying to say there is a marked difference between the two (although I would argue BAA has at least a slightly greater value - how much value, who the hell knows)....but to hear someone offer up that Fundamental Forces has more value than BAA kinda blew my doors off. First I heard of such an opinion, so I was just putting out feelers to see if someone else had heard a similar take.

    Thanks, gents.
     
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  19. Beer_Economicus

    Beer_Economicus Pooh-Bah (2,698) Apr 8, 2017 Ohio
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    Here's a question:

    How many FO do you think is fair for a BAA, how many for a FF?

    I feel like not long ago people were trying to offer 4 FO for a FF, without luck. Conversely, haven't people been reading 4-5 BL beers on the FO/NC level for a BAA?

    There is def more BAA out there, but the value is obscured.
     
    rmpic82 likes this.
  20. rmpic82

    rmpic82 Maven (1,268) Jan 27, 2017 Kansas
    Trader

    I only trade on Beer Advocate and haven't seen an offer of 4x FO for FF. Surely it has happened if you have seen it, but I'd guess that trade isn't happening very often at all. I'd also submit (my opinion) that FF isn't that much better than FO, so I probably wouldn't trade 2x FO for it. I have no idea how many FO others would be comfortable swapping - but I'd assume it would be in line with BAA.

    I'm definitely seeing 4x BL for BAA, but perhaps not all at the FO level. I actually consider FO in its own category, really. Most everything else is a step down, be it small or large. BAA '18 definitely went up from a production standpoint, so it seems a little easier to get this year. I find it weird that Handjee '18 went up significantly in production, too - yet it doesn't seem to have budged from a value perspective. Maybe those that buy/sell on secondary see a difference in value there, but I don't follow that stuff as closely as others.
     
    Beer_Economicus likes this.
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