Toppling Goliath: Morning Delight

short answer: no. longer answer: they’ve switched formats throughout the batches so last year’s was a 4pk of 12oz bottles and this year’s is a 2pk of bombers. i’d guess out the gate a bomber could be equivalent to 1 VRU (Vanilla Rye Unit) but that’s a total guess at this point.

 

Agree with Lucious, with the return to 22oz format it's ~Vanilla Rye value but definitely not Assassin or Handjee level.

MD is kind of the runt of the TG Stout litter

 

I respectfully disagree with the above. I think 1:1 with Assassin seems pretty spot on. Both due to availability & $:$. But hey, what do I know? Seeing as though MD hasn't been released yet it's hard to say what side the majority will fall on. Now as far as handjee goes? I'd say that wouldn't go 1:1 because the aftermarket for that bottle is absurd.

 

We shall see, but I doubt MD 18 will go 1:1 with Assassin 18. Even with retail $4$, MD is not barrel aged, was much easier to get tickets for (and you could purchase for a +1 guest as well) and will in all likelihood be released in a higher bottle count than Assassin 18. MD 18 probably won't go even 1:1 with Vanilla Rye, and and this is coming from someone who got MD 18 tickets (implying that my incentive would be to try and hype up MD, not knock it down).

As for Handjee 18, not even close. I don't think you'd get any interest even if you offered both MD 18 bottles and you were looking for one Handjee 18.

Just one man's opinion.

 

With the glut of MD that is sure to be around, I am personally expecting it to be somewhere around FO and lower level BL beer. Assassin was more plentiful this year, and it fell by 1/3 of it's value from last year. There's no reason short of it being the best it has ever been (it won't be) for it to be at the value level of B3 or B4.

 

the “lessers” for sure i think it would. was actually pondering that the other day. CoV, Brotilla, Brozerker i think could possibly go 1:1

 

FO and mdb4 go pretty much 1:1. Just some simple deduction but if b5 is around FO that kinda suggests you think b5 versus b4 would be 1:1?

...unless I'm missing something.

 

b4 was 12oz bottles and b5 is 22oz bombers.

 

This I know, hence my perplexion with the post.

 

oh i see. yeah, i would expect b5 to trade quite a bit higher than FO but we’ll see.

 

When does the bottle size make a difference these days in the trade value of beer? Kbbs? If md b5 trades as high as assassin something is definitely wrong in this world of beer trading.

 

well in the context of beer it doesn’t make a difference but in the context of MD it means one bottle is half your allotment this year instead of a quarter of your allotment last year. also, you’d have to have a magnum of MD to trade 1:1 with assassin.

 

I was trying to imply somewhere above FO, somewhere below 2 FO, probably somewhere on the order of a FO and GS. That's my guess.

 

I'll add these thoughts. MD will go for what people are willing to trade. Previous years 22oz bombers went between $350-400 while 12oz bottles went between $100-150 because of the smaller format. So to answer the question above, that's when bottle size matters. Also, you can't compare KBBS to MD because of how KBBS got to the stupid price that it's at. Lastly, I wouldn't say that tickets were easier or harder to get over previous releases from TG. As always, many people got shut out & complained about the process.

Now to reiterate. An item is only worth what someone is willing to pay (or in this case, trade) to get what they want. So if someone has a bottle of Assassin & wants a MD then they just might go 1:1. There are several arguments that would or could justify it not happening but there are the same amount of arguments to side with why it should happen. At the end of the day it's not always up to the market but rather the individuals involved in the negotiations of said trade. As of right now I'd say it's too early to tell since I haven't seen anyone offering to trade or asking for a trade.

 

But imagine what the value of a 22oz KBBS would be

 

Ah, but grasshopper, one must consider that if they made 22oz KBBS that they would have increased production so much that perhaps price would not be twice that of a 12oz KBBS!

 

Exactly unless they keep production exactly the same but use 22oz bottles meaning only HALF as many people get bottles so they can charge 3x as much....

C'mon @Beer_Economicus this is TG we're talking about, they created the beer economy & know how to manipulate the markets

 

Exactly now lets hope this batch is better than last year.