Toppling Goliath: Morning Delight

which is what i was trying to point out. i am certain some people did this. however should us wife-less/GF-less/mule-less pieces of shit be punished for our situation?

 

I see what you're saying, but I had them in my cart literally well over 30 times (I stopped counting) during this time period, but then I would get the "not available" comment. Then every 7 minutes (or whatever the site has as a timer to "refresh" tickets) things would change. Either I would get the chance and get to cart, then they would dissapear, or they would not appear at all.

Some people definitely had the same issues as I did, but they were more successful.

 

Soooooooooo.....anyone complete any trades??!!......

 

Yeah I got an 18 Assassin... for one MDb5. Although from the sounds of it I got a really good deal. Early on I was seeing some people say that it would be close, so I asked for it on social media. Got some flak so I took it down, but then the guy sent me a message.

 

I still believe that 1:1 is more then fair for both sides. Not everyone who got into assassin got into MD & vice versa. If I had an assassin & wanted to try MD, I would do the trade. Shit, I've traded BCS variants for out of state shelf beer because I wanted to try it. It's all about the right set of eyes.

 

Also, the argument that Assassin should be worth more because it sat in barrels holds no water with me when referencing trades for beer like MD. Both are world class beers. One was aged in barrels, the other has adjuncts. They both have special characteristics that separate themselves from an average stout.

If Assassins value is based purely on the fact that it sat in barrels, why does it retail the same as MD? KBBS retailed around $100 at release so I can acknowledge the difference in pricing for aftermarket ($1,000 is truly ******ed) in regards to assassin & KBBS.

Keep in mind that MD used to value over $300 for a single bottle until TG changed format to 12oz/4pks. That's when the market dipped. Now, people assume that it should stay the same value even though allotment was cut in half (per person) but ounces were almost the same.

That's my story & I'm sticking to it.

 

I respect your opinion, but I think you are getting confused on a few people's viewpoints in terms of expected value.

1. BA vs Non-BA: this is a matter of trade vs secondary differences. There are lots of people who think BA beers are way better than non BA beers, and as such have a psychological tick that goes off saying "DON't TRADE BA BEER FOR NON BA BEER." You see this a lot in terms of people looking for BA beer for their NE IPAs and such.

2. Value for MD dipped at B4 for multiples reasons. 1. MORE MADE. 2. 4-packs mean more transactions (both trades and sales) can get made. That means that even if demand was higher than normal, it is easier to fulfill that demand. Lots of people want a taste. Not everyone wants more definitely. So between the two of these (i.e. A flooded market and a dip in quality) the value decreased.

3. I have said from the very beginning that a subsequent release of the exact same beer almost never gets valued higher than the release prior. That means that you should never expect (can happen, but not expect) that a B5 should go for more than 2x B4. In fact, especially with an uptick in production and so many people having tried it by batch 5, you should expect the value to drop EVEN WITH an uptick in quality.

It makes 100% sense that the value is between 1 and 2 bottles of B4. From trends alone it should be capped at 2 bottles. From decrease in demands/increase in production price should trend downward.

There's nothing really illogical about this.

 

Hey, we all got opnions and that’s just fine. We just disagree on many points.

I absolutely think barrel vs. non-barrel aged beer makes a difference when trading. Or, since you mentioned secondary (and I despise secondary especially since no one ever cites where their figures come from and it’s usually the highest price ever sold for), look up how many non barrel aged beers sell for over $200/bottle and then compare that to how many barrel aged beers (regardless of even bottle size) sell for over $200. I think the evidence will point as to how much barrel aging makes a difference for trading/secondary.

Also, quality is only part of the equation when it comes to demand created for trade. I actually don’t even thing it’s the top or even second most contribution factor. Hype is most important and bottle count is usually up there too. If quality was important BCBS regular and Central Waters Brewer’s Reserve beers would be trading for A LOT higher.

 

The market dipped before the 4-packs when people reported batch 3 being super bitter on the coffee as opposed to the maple bomb that batch 2 was. The value on that batch quickly dropped to around $200 while b2 to this day is $300+ as is every Assassin batch. Additionally, the retail price has next to nothing to do with how it's valued on secondary. It's just like a stock, if the general consensus of the value of something is x then the market value of that thing is x. If people weren't paying $1000 for a bottle of KBBS then nobody would ask for $1000, and same with the brewery selling them for $100. People can complain all they want, but you can't blame them if the lines are still long. I also agree with the guy that said barrel aging makes a difference, but mainly because that limits how often they can release the beer and potentially the yield of the ultimate product. They could brew MD year round if they wanted to, although it probably wouldn't be cheap.

 

Just to add to this (about the B2 vs. B3 valuations dropping, etc.):

Many people are familiar with the term "Anchor" in psychology. Part of the reason we should not expect a subsequent batch to go up is because of anchors. There's already an established value for MD, even if "the last batch isn't as good as this batch" and that "This batch is a larger bottle." That anchor absolutely effects what people are willing to pay, especially when people looking to tick the beer are just looking to tick the beer, and not specifically looking to tick every batch. It's a big psychological barrier to say "I'm willing to pay 2x+ for this new bottle when the last bottle was x."

 

Exactly. I got my first bottle to try it (and tick of course), but since then I've just wanted to drink it with my breakfast every morning.

 

I also do not have a completed trade to post.

However, I find it odd that b4 12oz bottles were valuing around 100-125. B5, widely considered the better batch and nearly twice the volume is averaging around 160ish.

Just doesn't compute for me. You should easily be able to get b4 x 2 for a b5.

 

FT MDb4 x 1 ISO MD b5 set [insert shruggie emoji]

 

People can ultimate post whatever they feel is appropriate or what they are willing to give up for MD b5 (and they should!). Those individuals' inbox activity will indicate whether their trade offer is fair or not good enough.

I just personally get annoyed seeing some low ball offers (my opinion) for MD b5 and then the attitude to come with it like they are doing you a favor by offering to take this MD b5 bottle of your hands for their left over, low demand or easily accessible beers.

 

I am discussing, so please don't take this as me trying to pick a fight, as I am not.

No matter how good something is, we all know that availability of it plays a role. With every subsequent release of a TG bottle, more and more people are entering for the pourpose of putting up on secondary or just to trade. As this supply (not just the supply of MD that exists period) increases, people looking to trades/sell their bottle(s) undercut each other. That's why the price falls. I guess we all know this, though.

I guess your argument is maybe less that MD B5 is not being valued highly enough and more that as a result of B5 being so good compared to B4, value should be lower on B4. While that may be true from a taste-value standpoint, we all know that how good something tastes is not the only factor. -Especially for tickers. The bigger issue, though (i think) is what I mentioned above with anchoring. The fact that B4 had a well established value and has not really moved for a year means it really probably won't be changing much. Those who have it for sale will wait till someone wants to pay that price. At some point when people want to do a vertical, they probably will. It's also less for the cost of admission to taste B4 than B5, so for someone New wanting to try a TG stout, it is an attractive alternative.

 

how many bottles of MD b5 are there? does anyone have that figure?