Is barrel aged beer overpriced?

I'd be interested to hear - either statistically or anecdotally - just how risky this actually is. With the exception of the highly publicized BCS infection a few years back, how often are batches actually discarded? This is often brought up as a concern, but there seems scant data to actually back it up.

 

I have not gotten into that thread because I don't get to see any BCS where I live here in Michigan (Battle Creek) and haven't seen it in a store for over 5 years (although I don't go looking on the release date). I still and find memories and loved the beer in the past but won't chase it (or any beers) because I'm over that phase of my beer-drinking hobby.

 

Same here. It’s a great beer. Until they start selling more in Michigan I’ll probably not be able to by it against either. It’s pointless here, especially since we get no variants. I would love to get the coffee.

 

You don't get to hear the gory details because the brewers aren't proud of the circumstances. We're all left to make our own assumptions based upon the percentage of people who purchase bottle(s) and report their findings from a consumer standpoint in forums such as BA.

Maybe a case in point is the 2018 version of Dark Horse's BBA Plead the 5th. Virtually none of that beer was released (a clerk at the brewery store said there was a "small amount"), and given the history of the brewery's issues with infected BBA beers, we can only assume the entire batch of BBA Pt5 was ruined. That beer has beeen falling out of favor, so it wasn't really discussed this year when the release was delayed/shorted/canceled.

P.S. I think BBA Pt5 is a large enough batch to be distributed throughout the Dark Horse distro footprint, so it was probably not a small loss to the brewery.

 

Anecdotal, but I’ve heard Brewers say that 30% loss is what they use to estimate yield: angels’ share, barrels that have some kind of obvious problem, or just not appropriate for the blend. If the loss is less than that, it’s a bonus, but planning for anything close to 100% viable beer at the end of aging is asking for trouble.

 

It cost money to brew beer, buy barrels, buy space to store barrels, and then have beer sit in barrels for however long. That being said, the brewery can't completely control individual bar mark up.

 

Goes back to money as would something like Pappy 23. It’s rare enough that prestige is more of a commodity than money. If KBBS was all over the place in volume they’d be lucky to get $10 let alone $100. I bet blind not 1 in 1000 could pick out Pappy, if it was in volume on the shelf it would be priced with every other bottle in that age range. But they’re not and they command serious money, but to those who have serious money cost is of no consequence. They’re seriously over priced but rare enough to counter the original question.

 

How can you argue pricing completely independent of supply and demand?

There is a difference between the pricing the market sustains and your personal view of whether the price is worth it. I agree with you on that point. There is no way I would spend $100 on a single (small) bottle of KBBS. But, clearly, it is not overpriced for the market.

 

Only because demand exceeds a very very small production volume. If production volume was 100x what it is now would it still command that price? Or 1000x the product rate. If it was the price would plummet, demand is still there, but the volume is there too. So is rarity proportional to price as long as there’s a reasonable demand? The brewery created the demand, they control the volume, with an entry price of $100 they set the initial bar of better than 10x its competition.

 

And this is precisely the reason I switched to bourbons/scotches/rye whiskeys...The only barrel-aged beer I purchased this year was KBS at approx 6 bucks/bottle. I'm at a point in my beer journey where there aren't that many beers barrel-aged or not, that bring something to the palate that I haven't already tasted before. So, I'm pretty much enjoying whatever I can get off the shelf without having to chase trucks or break banks.

 

Pappy's a wheated bourbon, meaning that the secondary grain (to corn) is wheat instead of the much more common secondary grain of rye. Heavily aged wheated bourbons are extra-uncommon. Maker's Mark is probably the best known easy-to-find wheated bourbon.

Wheated bourbons do taste a lot different to an experienced bourbon drinker's palate, and heavily aged bourbons do taste considerably different than younger ones. Thus, I do think Pappy 23 would stand out in a blind tasting to people who know what they're doing and quite possibly to people who don't. Wheated bourbons are sweeter, fruitier, and softer than ryed bourbons and thus more accessible; they're sort of the New England IPAs of bourbons. I believe that unique, ultra-accessible flavor is sine qua non of the hype around the Pappy Van Winkle products.

I've had Pappy 15, 20, and 23 back when they were highly regarded but the hype hadn't gone into the stratosphere and you could still get a bottle without tremendous difficulty. I think they're all pretty good overall but too soft for my preferences and definitely missing that rye kick that I want in a bourbon. That said, I do appreciate a mellow, heavily aged whiskey, so I enjoyed that aspect.

I do believe the extraordinarily high prices are driven by hype, and hype among folks who aren't deeply into whiskey at that. Most major bourbon fans seek and celebrate that rye secondary grain flavor and look down on wheat as simplistic, boring, and unsophisticated.

 

I find a simple Maker’s Mark to be a bit too sweet, haven’t tried the 46. I tried some Old Grand Dad 114 a few weeks ago, and found that a bit too harsh, I think they’re Rye bill is like 27%. Water tames it though, but it’s still not my cup of tea. I’m working on a Russell Reserve Single Barrel, and I want to say it's Rye bill is like 13% or so, and at 110 proof completely elegant. Of all the Bourbon’s I’ve tasted the Wild Turkey line is really my thing, the perfect balance. But the Russels is no water needed, and for my palate the most enjoyable bourbon I’ve had to date. I’ll never see a Pappy unless I care to spit out $100 for an ounce, and I’m not that curious.

I’ve also never had a Rye Bourbon, we have a few on the shelf but I’m afraid of that much Rye by the bottle.

 

Some say 25%, others 40+. One Brewer said a Belgian Brewer told him that if you play with sours, be prepared to dump some beer.

 

You've just described the law of supply and demand.

The same would apply to a vastly increased production of just about any luxury good.

 

Overall, yes, in my opinion. At least for many 500ml+.

I have a personal spending limit that I try to stick to, unless something is really special - about $1/oz. Even that is a little high, in my opinion. That's why I like smaller format BA beers, so that you're not looking at $24 for entry. I would prefer half that size for $12, even though it's the same price per ounce.

Most BA beers I find interesting and I like to try lots of different brands, but I often find it hard to try a new 22oz beer for $22-26 when you don't have personal/historical expectations, like brand familiarity. Now, if they were all half that size for half the price, I would probably be willing to try a lot more.

I guess I mainly have an issue with large format pricing.

3 examples to illustrate my thoughts:

• AleSmith 2 x 11.2oz bottle combo special release = ~$27, or $13.50/11.2oz = $1.20/oz. A little over my preferred pricing, but not horrible. If you don't like one of the bottles, at least you can give it away, share it, or trade it.
• Firestone Walker 12oz special releases = ~10 = $0.83/oz. If I'm interested in the beer, I'll probably get it.
• Mikkeller 25.4oz special releases, like BA Traeblod = $40 = $1.57. Still pretty pricey but would like to try it. $40 is a little steep for entry for one bottle, in my opinion.

Also, beer being overpriced probably depends on how much you make. If you make less, it probably does seem overpriced. If you make more, you've probably accepted the pricing by now and are less bothered by it.

 

i'll spend 14 dollars all day on 12oz of tilquin and 22 on a 750 of drie og
then ill cringe at 20 dollars for a love child that sits on the shelf forever

 

I took a tour of a brewery a few months ago and I asked the person giving the tour (the head brewer) about the yield of their barrel aged beers. He replied that they had to dump about 1/3rd of the barrels due to infection.

Cheers!

 

Absolutely, perhaps things this rare are outside of the reasonable for using them as examples.

 

In addition to @jackhorzemps anecdote, which is similar to at least one of my visits to a different brewery, @hopfenunmaltz can add a lot of interesting numbers to answer this.

 

I don't know if they're overpriced, but I do know they're expensive.