German beer market

Discussion in 'Germany' started by einhorn, Jun 8, 2018.

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  1. einhorn

    einhorn Savant (1,175) Nov 3, 2005 California

    The trend of decreasing beer consumption in Germany has been going on for decades. There are varying reasons, some which went into effect years ago, others more recently. In no particular order

    1) DUI costs skyrocketed (as it did here in the states)
    2) less after work beers ("Miller Time" as it used to be know here in the states)
    3) less drinking at lunch (see point 1)
    4) changing demographics (the Germans are getting older and dying out)
    5) decreased population
    6) increase in hard liquor consumption (Red Bull/Vodka)
    7) changing taste profiles (hence more sweet Radlers and for a while alcopops like Smirnoff)
    8) increase in alcohol free beers which are not included in the statistics
    9) general increase in living healthier

    Due to decreased consumption, beer prices have been stable for 30+ years - a crate of beer is still DM 20 / Euro 10, all with no end in sight.
     
  2. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
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    Douglas, would you be willing to expound on this phenomenon?

    How can German beer be priced the same today as it was 30+ years ago? I can see how consumers might wish for this to happen but how are the myriad of German breweries able to do this and remain in business?

    Do you think that a German beer industry that prices beer at 10 Euros a crate is a 'good thing' for German beer going forward? What will the German beer market (and German beers) be like 10 years from now?

    Cheers!
     
  3. einhorn

    einhorn Savant (1,175) Nov 3, 2005 California

    @JackHorzempa it's a combination of things. Due to shrinking consumption, there is a large amount of over-capacity. As you know, the beer ingredients in a 4.8% pilsner are not that expensive, they brewers, admin and drivers are the real cost block, hence the idea of selling at any price to keep the wheel spinning. Add to that the general low cost of food & beverage in Germany thanks to Aldi, Lidl, Netto & Co and their desire to sell inexpensive to drive traffic and it's the perfect 30 year storm. Both models are based on volume business, not on pricing.
     
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  4. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
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    So, the breweries have 'right sized' their employees? There are less people involved in the brewery to produce and distribute the same amount of beer so that beer is priced the same today as it was 30+ years ago?

    Cheers!
     
  5. einhorn

    einhorn Savant (1,175) Nov 3, 2005 California

    No, there is no elasticity. Decreasing demand, supply is constant.
     
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  6. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
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    It would appear that we are reaching a point of diminishing returns in this discussion.

    I am personally having difficulty understanding how the German breweries are able to stay in business if they are selling the beer at the same prices in 2020 than they did 30+ years ago. According to an online inflation calculator what would have costed $100 in 1990 would cost $200 in 2020. How an industry can 'absorb' that cost difference is beyond me here.

    Cheers!
     
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  7. einhorn

    einhorn Savant (1,175) Nov 3, 2005 California

    How about this @JackHorzempa - it's like the milk business in the US. A gallon of milk costs about the same as it did 30 years ago, now Bordon and Dean are bankrupt. Same in Germany, many breweries closing or consolidating.
     
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  8. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
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    But the price has fluctuated over those years with peaks in 2007 and 2014 - a function of supply and demand?

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/236854/retail-price-of-milk-in-the-united-states/
    Which is why I asked in post #42:

    "Do you think that a German beer industry that prices beer at 10 Euros a crate is a 'good thing' for German beer going forward? What will the German beer market (and German beers) be like 10 years from now?"

    Cheers!
     
  9. einhorn

    einhorn Savant (1,175) Nov 3, 2005 California

    They must get prices up. But here's the problem (as I stated in post 41) - everyone is "used to" cheap beer. Some crazy statistic states that like 30% of beer sold in Germany is "on sale" that week - probably similar to potato chips in the US. If they don't all go up in price, everyone loses. Like a game of chicken. All it takes is one large brewer to say no and his 10 EURO crate will sell X times more than the 11 EURO crate. It's a weird dynamic that has continued for decades now.
     
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  10. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
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    From an outsider looking in it just has the appearance of a 'race to the bottom'.

    As long as German beer consumers refuse to pay an extra Euro(s) for a crate of beer it seems like what will happen over the next decade is the breweries that stay in business do so via 'cheapening' their business operations:
    • Utilize ever cheaper ingredients
    • Utilize less and less of those ingredients
    • 'Cut corners' elsewhere in their brewing operations
    • etc.
    Cheers!
     
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  11. jonb5

    jonb5 Pooh-Bah (1,745) May 11, 2010 England
    Pooh-Bah

    Another factor is the entry of discounter supermarkets into the market.

    Lidl, Aldi and Netto etc sell their own brand, sometimes as cheaply as .25€ a can.

    Lots of people seem to buy these brands.
     
  12. boddhitree

    boddhitree Pooh-Bah (1,839) Apr 13, 2008 Germany
    Pooh-Bah

    It's already happened a few decades ago. That's where you get the terms Fernsehbier and Einheitsplörre [standard - dishwater]
     
  13. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
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    Tony, this is the first time I 'heard' that word.:slight_smile:

    Above you can read the comment from @jonb5 concerning supermarket branded beers (Lidl, Aldi and Netto). Are these popular selling beers in your area?

    You are in a somewhat unique position since you are aware from growing up in the US that when you were a kid beers like Bud (and later Bud Light) were the beers. When I was a kid all that my father drank was Piels Real Draft (likely since it was very cheap?). Then in the US the craft beer movement became ever more popular. AAL beers are still indeed the best selling beers but we beer consumers have lots of options now. These craft beers are not cheap and some of my small, local craft breweries are selling 4 pack/16 ounce cans for $16+ but we have the choice to pay that much (or not). It seems like vast majority of German beer consumers demand cheap (e.g., 10 Euros a crate) and they are willing to drink whatever beer meets that demand. Do you see any genuine signs that German beer consumers will get off that price mark? Will German beer still be 10 Euros a crate 10 years from now?

    Cheers!
     
  14. boddhitree

    boddhitree Pooh-Bah (1,839) Apr 13, 2008 Germany
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    Einheitsplörre [standard - dishwater]. I've used it more than once here, but it's probably not a word that's easy to learn.
    Like you, I remember in college drinking Canadian Black Label or some other super cheap $1.50/6-pack beer. Back in the early 80's pre-craft, a college student on a budget on a hot Texas summer day needs refreshments regardless of how little flavor it held. We just bought the cheapest 6-pack on the shelves. And that's exactly what's happened in Germany. People with not a lot of money and little discernment for taste go for a beer that's refreshing and taste has little to do with it because, again like college students back then, you know little else, and hell, it's good enough to give you that beer-feeling. That explains how people can buy beers in Aldi for about 28¢ with a 25¢ bottle deposit for 0.5L. For those who don't remember when I reviewed Aldi's swill, go back and read this oldie post from 2014. Or the post in 2013 where I did a taste test of the cheapest beers in my local supermarket?

    Since those taste tests, nothing has changed really for brewers in Germany. They still are competing on price and just about nothing else. I predict also nothing will change in this regard for the near or far future. Nonetheless, since then, craft beer has seeped into the wider consciousness, and some have tried it, but for many, regardless of whether they like it or not, the much higher price puts more than a majority off when contemplating what to buy.
     
  15. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
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    Tony (@boddhitree), thank you for your state of the German beer nation report. I find it sad that buying cheap beer is such an ingrained thing but I suppose it's a situation of "the customer is always right"?

    FWIW the cheap beer I drank the most in college was Pabst Blue Ribbon since this was the beer served at all of the Frat parties.

    Prost!
     
  16. einhorn

    einhorn Savant (1,175) Nov 3, 2005 California

    Not to take away from Tony's discussion, but the over-capacity is being used to brew the Discounter beers. It's usually the same beer (maybe lagered a bit less) but where else can you cut corners on a Greman pilsner? All have been using hop extract for years, even the "premium" beers use extract.

    Side note: even the beers that are selling at dirt cheap prices even have Mehrwertsteuer (19%!!) included in that price!
     
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  17. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
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    I do not exactly know what is the 'baseline' for a contemporary cheap German Pilsner but you could also further the trend of the past few decades of using less and less of the ingredients (e.g., even lesser amounts of hops (including less amounts of hop extract), lesser amounts of Pilsner Malt).

    Douglas, do you have knowledge of the various malts available to German brewers? Perhaps they could decide to source ever cheaper Pilsner Malt (e.g., imported from Country x vs. using Pilsner Malt from a German Malting Co.)?

    Cheers!
     
  18. einhorn

    einhorn Savant (1,175) Nov 3, 2005 California

    @JackHorzempa I doubt it. There may be grains coming from far east/China but even then, these are German trained brewers who value customer service, delivery dependability and all-around quality malt at a decent price.
     
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  19. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
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    I am not experienced in German Brewery business operations but it is not unusual in American companies (e.g., the companies that I have worked for) where the finance/accounting folks have the dominant say when it comes to purchasing decisions.

    Cheers!
     
  20. hopfenunmaltz

    hopfenunmaltz Pooh-Bah (2,647) Jun 8, 2005 Michigan
    Pooh-Bah

    Early in my assignment in Hesse, a German counterpart said the local beers were dishwater, but in English. He used Binding as an example. When I tried Binding, I agreed.
     
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