How long can the boom last?

And this in my basic point. I think that barrel per brewer is a poor measure and isn't sustainable growth. I think even volume will relatively level off, the question of the future will be where does the beer come from? I think local breweries who are able to build a community type of feel will continue to thrive as long as they don't try to overstep their market.

 

Just to double check: your 'vote' is that number of craft breweries is the appropriate metric to characterize craft beer growth?

Cheers!

 

It would appear that Lagunitas experienced small growth in 2019:

“Off-premise dollar sales of Lagunitas products in 2019 increased 0.7%, to nearly $184.9 million,”

https://www.brewbound.com/news/lagunitas-ceo-maria-stipp-steps-down-dennis-peek-named-replacement

Cheers!

 

No, I don't have a vote as to what the best measure is, just sharing my thoughts based on my experience. But I do think that barrels per brewery is an especially poor measure.

 

Well, we're only about a month out from this years CBC, so we'll see the numbers soon enough.

 

Well, the point I was making by posting those B.A. graphs was that, whatever is going on the past few years, I don't think 'Boom' accurately describes it anymore.

Yeah, but it doesn't really give a good picture given some of the "captured" breweries are up double-digits and other are down. Just the ex-craft brewers:

2015 +9%
2016 +2%
2017 +3%
2018 -2%

Total barrelage - 2015=7.2M --- 2018=8M bbl.

No one measures the industry by that stat but it does answer the question:
"How can the number of US breweries nearly double, going from 3,860 to 7,450 in 5 years and yet craft beer sales are essentially flat?"

Well, as I quote in that post, the B.A. is predicting another 4% year for '19. Good - better than AB or MC - steady growth as the industry overall is going downward but not a "Boom" in my opinion.

 

This. At my local shop the other day and asked where all the Stone went...wasn’t moving so they stopped ordering it. People only want the new stuff in 16oz cans. And yeah the prices are criminal, all things considered...ssoooo many “local” PA breweries I’ve never heard of slapping stickers on a can, no date, and boom, $18 4-pack

 

My local Retail Beer Distributor has plenty of Stone brands on their shelves but all of those beers are old. As far as I am concerned they aren't there.

Cheers!

 

@magilldm and @beerwego , where do you guys live? City center? Suburban? Rural? I've encountered the kind of thing you both have.described at stores here and there but never seen a place where it was the only option for buying beer

 

My area is several years behind the curve and just now having a craft beer “boom” over the last 3-ish years. The unfortunate thing is that none of the breweries are making anything terribly interesting. Or good. Most taprooms have 7+ IPA or hoppy variant being served at any given time. The non-IPA styles being served are nothing exciting or well done, with the rare exception and in limited quantity and release, mind you. Now that some are packaging they’re selling IPA 4 packs for $16+.

I’m happy that the area is excited about beer now. It’s nice that I don’t have to drive an hour to find a beer bar with a halfway decent menu. But, seeing as this is an affluent suburban area, the businesses have to cater to what those people want so they can afford to be in business. This is a place where chain restaurant don’t last more than a couple of years.

I don’t know how long it’s going to last out here. Despite not enjoying a lot of what’s locally offered, I do hope that these places can remain in business because the social aspect is something we so desperately needed out here.

shelf space is probably harder to grab than ever before but it does seem like a lot of grocery stores offer an abundance of local or regional choices. Though, I wish they’d offer more styles and beer from other parts of the country/world. It’s better than only being able to grab Widmer Hef or SNPA. Not that there’s anything wrong with that! It was just frustrating 12 years ago.

wow, I went on some tangents there. Sorry. Something is going to happen but I don’t think craft beer is going to go away completely. At least not in my lifetime. It’ll probably become a super local focus rather than nationwide or something like that.

 

I live in so cal. I have one awesome bottle shop near me with an incredible selection. But the majority of places to buy beer are flooded with IPA’s and Hazy IPA’s et al. It sucks.

 

The boom has slowed considerably, noticeable in these parts. I think most of us veteran drinkers find the NEIPA style to be boring at this point. I'm not going to get excited for the latest grapefruit/rosemary infused IPA.

I'm constantly on the lookout for fresh west coast IPAs and am rarely successful. To me that's a problem.

 

About 1 case per facing for the shelf, 2-4 cases per facing for the well. God I don't miss being a sales rep and rotating that stuff. You're talking like 20 cases per door in a setup like this, maybe more depends on the shelf length obviously.

To both of these points - I'd argue we're in the "Long Tail" economically speaking. Low volume producers making high margins on relatively scarce hop variety beers. I could go into a bit more detail but I don't want this to get too in the weeds.

 

I’d suppose anyone who enjoyed sparkling seltzer’s are no threat at all to the craft beer industry, my guess their percentage of the pie will come out of stuff like Bud Light. I happen to like White Claws in the summer, it fits in sometimes.

 

I know several people, pushing double digits, all in their 20s or very early 30s, who have migrated from drinking mainly craft beer to drinking mainly hard seltzer in the last couple of years. It's definitely competition.

 

I can see it, seltzer’s are light, and refreshing, I like White Claws, and the Grapefruit is pretty good. I summertime like them though, pool, Beach etc, otherwise I’d rather have a Pils. But the Bud Light Seltzer is there for a reason, there’s a growing market, but I still think on average it’s competition in low calorie AAL. I’d guess at the pool White Claws would be top dog followed by Bud Light.

 

I think the boom is due to the overabundance of breweries as many have mentioned. That's not necessarily a problem though. Craft beer has surged in the past 30 years, but I think there's a potential further surge to go. The market may be saturated with breweries, but increase the consumer base and the breweries will prosper once again.
People like novelty. NEIPAs (love them or hate them) spurred a wave of novelty that had everyone wanting the newest one. Soon a new style will emerge that will inspire a new wave of beer aficionados to chase down the newest trend. That is my hope. Novelty and collection inspire people. Make a trend, and make it worth chasing.

 

Not regularly. Unless you count Orval. I dod a collaboration with Goose Island a couple of years back - Brewery Yard - which was an example.

 

Are you saying that regular Orval is similar to those old style ipas? Or do they make an IPA that is a different beer? Either way I should probably revisit Orval, I haven't had it in years and had a much narrower appreciation of beer back then

 

Closest to an original IPA, considering the brett and type of hops. If you can find it 6 months or less, you'll get a better sense of the hoppiness. As it ages that wanes and the funk gets more intense.