Pandemic Predictions

I don't think this is "The Big One" but its real. And is going to get worse. Here are my opinions and observations.

1. I'm actually drinking less than before. And I'm pretty well stocked up.
2. I think we will see an increase in the birth rate. People are not responsible enough to worry about what they are bringing a kid into.
3. I have to agree with you on this one. I'm worried about some of our regular places and the servers that I have gotten to know. Wishing them the best.
4. I voted for Trump and back him. Nuff said!
5. I'm not a home brewer and don't have an opinion. If the economy collapses, yeah we'll have people making hooch at home.
6. I think the 100,000 - 200,000 prediction is conservative. And I think the world population is going to take a big hit. I don't have an opinion on %.

I know I sound negative but I like to think that I'm realistic.

All of you'all take care.

 

# 1 is already happening. Ohio had a big uptick in retail alcohol sales for the month of March.
# 2 is wrong. There will be more pregnancies and babies born in mid to late December 2020/January 2021, as couples across the country are sitting at home spending more time with each other, so...
# 3 Retail outlets that sell alcohol will be okay, as long as they are allowed to say open during this whole thing. If not, different story for at least some of them certainly. It is is sad to know that not all our favorite bars, restaurants, and breweries will likely still be open/in operation when this thing is over. Some of them simply won't be able to manage the loss of business/revenue during this time period in a way that will allow them to resume operations after this things is over. It is simply a numbers game. Sad but true.
# 4 has already been happening for 2 + months now. We know that Trump, along with some members of congress too, had intelligence officials telling them starting back in mid to late January that Corona Virus had huge potential to be very bad for this country/the world. And for different reasons Trump and these members of congress from both major parties chose not to listen and not to act/publicly sound the alarm about this. And valuable time to address this early on was lost as a result. I hope Trump and all of these members of congress lose in their next elections and never serve if any elected office ever again. To hell with all of them! In his daily press conferences, Trump will go off the deep end and say something stupid/scientifically inaccurate/false one day, walk it back at the next day's pres conference, say something really dumb and uninformed again a day or 2 later, etc. And this cycle has been going for a few weeks now.
# 5 Let's all sure hope so!
# 6 is being very optimistic. While fortunately at this point it does't seem likely even or 5% or 10% that the world's and or America's population dies, it looks likely to be more than .01% sadly.

Eric

 

Since I'm just another guesser....yes lots of divorces as people didn't sign up for this...and baby boom. What ever doesn't kill you makes you stronger, you're probably immune by now. World deaths will mysteriously stop by 100,000 and that includes the convenience of the Docs to just express all deaths as CV19. Eat well, drink well my friends.

 

Check your facts.

Over the last 2 weeks of January, the State Department raised the travel advisory from Level 2, Exercise Increased Caution, to Level 3, Reconsider Travel, and finally to Level 4, Do Not Travel.

On January 31, Trump declared a state of emergency and banned travel to China (for which he was criticized for being zenophobic).

 

My prediction is...if this keeps going the way it has been, pretty soon beer will be the least or our problems/issues/concerns.

 

Yes, I know about the travel ban to China. Which I thought was a bit harsh at the time, but I also felt it was likely better to play it safe than sorry. So that is 1 early thing Trump did right. However, it is my understanding that Trump also ignored recommendations regarding things that could have been done here domestically, such as preparing to do testing on a big scale, that would have helped America have a better understanding earlier on about the scope of this thing and its potential to spread.

Eric

 

It was clearly a no win situation for Trump to be in. No matter what he did or didn't do he was going to be criticized. Its a lot easier to look back than to look forward.

 

1. Could have started large scale testing (like South Korea and Germany)
2. Could have used his presidential powers to ramp up production of PPEs and ventilators
3. Could have issued guidelines for swifter and more uniform shelter-in-place guidelines to states
4. Could have assigned messaging and management to actual professionals instead of Pence and Jared respectively
5. Undo cuts to FEMA
6. Could have Stressed severity/seriousness of the issue on a national scale instead of downplaying it for weeks on end
7. Reversed decision to eliminate epidemiologist position that was embedded at the Chinese CDC
8. Did I mention Jared already?

 

From a business point of view, yes, this is true. Sadly, there are some breweries that make fantastic beer but whose owners have less talent for business than they do for brewing, and it will be a shame to lose them. And the opposite is also true - some mediocre breweries will survive because they have business savvy owners, not because they deserve to on the merits of their beer.

 

I get it. You don't like Trump.

Now how about read a little history, both about the last 2 or 3 administrations budgets re: CDC, about their lack of preparations for predicted pandemics, about states declining earlier offers to sell them respirators, about the relative timing between the WHO declarations and the actions of Trump, about criticism of earlier actions Trump did take, etc.

 

Just to be clear, you're probably (certainly) not immune by now and if you get it once you can actually get it a second time. Stay home and take the social distancing seriously.

 

It’s not even a matter of disliking the individual—it’s understanding how his response to this pandemic is unsurprising given his actions (or lack thereof) since he’s been in office. Any rational person would agree that only qualified individuals should attain the positions they hold, yet, this president has spent his administration either appointing unfit individuals (ie an anti-environmentalist to the agency responsible for environmental protection) or leaving key positions unfilled. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that he disbanded the National Security Council’s global health unit in 2018 or ending the US Agency for International Development’s Predict program (designed to identify pandemics) in September last year. Even if I agree that previous administrations weren’t prepared, that shouldn’t have any impact on Trump’s response as he could have taken the measures I outlined above. Have I mentioned Jared yet?

 

Our president on February 26th

"[W]hen you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."

He, as well as a conservative media, have continually minimized the risk of this pandemic, creating a false sense of security. This has certainly led to an increase in the number of cases here.

 

WHO on January 14:

World Health Organization (WHO)
✔
@WHO
Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China

 

The hardest part is that it's so hard to predict how long we're gonna be stuck inside. If even a small number of people still have the virus, and they "open" the country up again (whatever that may mean is TBD), it's just gonna start the whole process over again and the entire economic shut down would have been for nothing. So I think the pressures really on to get the timing right on this - If their plan is to phase people back in who have the ability to develop the antibodies to fight it, keeping the compromised people at home, and from there completely bring everyone back into the fray, that might be the better approach. It's gonna be very interesting to see how Sweden's model worked out when all this is over, they may have had a more sensible approach to this whole thing.

 

Your quote is from 42 days before Trump's quote. A LOT was learned in the interim. Immediately before Trump's quote on that day,

Shortly thereafter, the CDC's Anne Schuchat added that while the United States currently has "low levels" of confirmed coronavirus cases, "we do expect more cases."

our president spectacularly under estimating the threat of this pandemic, well undermining his administration zone medical experts, at that time discouraged his constituents taking sensible precautions. This certainly led to a larger number of cases in this country.

 

It appears that way, don't it?

 

Sure, the WHO made a grave error in posting that early on, but it was only two days later that an epidemiologist for China's National Health Commission state in a TV interview that there was, in fact, evidence of human to human transmission. This led to the WHO reconvening the following week and issuing this report which confirms human to human transmission. So if you’re suggesting this administration acted on a single preliminary statement then you’re only confirming its ineptitude. You keep trying to redirect blame, but you’re not doing yourself any favors.

 

You’re arguing with someone who probably thinks its ethical for our congresspeople to engage in insider trading since its technically legal.

Probably shouldn’t argue with people who are this into their tribalism... very much a waste of time these days.

 

What an absurd comment. Talk about tribalism...