The future of the large distributing craft breweries?

I think we are definitely entering an era of restructuring, consolidation, and closures. One model worth including is the small/regional craft brewer selling to another of comparative stature— Drake’s acquisition of Bear Republic comes to mind here.

 

OP you're in PA so what about Victory ? I'd consider them a large craft brewery even though many outside of the northeast region probably never heard of them.

 

I personally think that large craft brewers may have to scale back what they distribute in the future.
Thinking about Sierra Nevada I could see a scenario where they only distribute SNPA, the hazy little thing line and Tropical Torpedo but only in the 19.2 oz cans as year round beers. I think the seasonal releases will stay but their other beers may only be available at the brewery or as online orders.

I think as a big brewery you lose the cool factor, and even though your beers may be great they just don’t excite the masses.

 

I see more consolidation in the future regionally. Recently Smuttynose bought Wachusett brewing which seemed like a big middle distro brewing in Mass. Also, Jack's Abby just bought out Wormtown. I expect more of this middle ground consolidation and probably more of the bigger brewers selling to the conglomerates as they get to retirement ages.

 

I’d replace “masses” with “beer advocates”. I don’t think the masses really get excited about beer, just excited about getting drunk and/or various festivities.

 

I think everything at the large scale will depend on profit and growth opportunity like any other soulless company with stakeholders that run things vs a business owner with a passion for their product or services offered. If craft beer loses growth opportunity, then it will just come down to the whether the brick and mortal space, land and equipment is worth investing in for repurpose.

 

Lagunitas had a plan very well set out in establishing their Chicago location. The same way Sierra Nevada had a plan for WHY they wished to establish themselves in Asheville. And it's one simple word that will satisfy the capability to deliver the one particular thing THEIR market of beer drinkers demand. The Logistics in getting a fresh ______ IPA. Sierra Nevada can continue to deliver fresh their IPA product to their east coast market while cutting costs the same way it can still deliver fresh product to its West Coast market. Lagunitas will have to figure out how to adapt their capabilities to this internal decision. Pity Waldo and the Born series.

 

I'd say the Victory brand is still strong. We continue to get several of their beers in the Atlanta area. The Festbier Marzen is one I have to get every October.

 

It probably comes down to the individual companies and their debt load. They've got to be looking at a near/medium term prospect of relatively flat growth in the market and should probably plan for basically stable output as a best case. If they're financials depend on continued expansion then there's trouble and they'll have to cut out major financial burdens or sell out or something.

But the well established ones that aren't carrying a massive debt and who already have secured shelf space in the large retailers/grocers of their core regions will probably fair pretty well.

I won't be surprised to see more of the largest independent craft brewers picking up smaller, more local brands. There were some mentioned on the east coast, out here Deschutes acquired Boneyard (another Bend, Oregon based brewer) and now Boneyard sees wider distribution and Deschutes' capacity is probably better used.

 

Heavy Seas still hasnt been bought out yet. We've been getting their beers up here for quite a while now. I thought they were a large distributing craft brewery because they are from Maryland and they have reached up to the New England region.

 

they seem to be doing well in the Charlotte market, where they have a joint brewery/brewpub (Brewers at 4001 Yancy). I see their beers on tap frequently throughout the city, and the brewpub seems to always be busy

 

I wonder if there's a comparison to the restaurant industry here? McDonald's, Burger King, and other giant, low priced, lower quality restaurants seem to be doing ok. But national, mid-priced chains like Red Lobster and Applebee's are closing and struggling. Is this a case of the biggest (and cheapest) aka BMC, etc. will survive along with the smallest and most local while most others will struggle?

 

At one point Lagunitas had plans to build a brewery in Azusa just to the east of LA. I don't read any trade publications. I do see a continued shrinking of beer offerings and not surprisingly "craft" brands owned by larger breweries like InBev continue to occupy what space remains.

It's still easy to find plenty of quality local offerings at groceries not named Safeway although this tends to lead to a wall o' IPA 4-packs costing $16+. Please do check the canned on dates on the bottom.

 

Red Lobster's recent issues have a lot to do with the way venture capital comes in and loots businesses they purchase. Stone sold when the venture capital bill came due. I think the trick is to avoid letting VC get any leverage on you. Which breweries can manage to do that while expanding is the trick. Though it might be better for the breweries to just not expand. Not everything needs to be a globe-striding behemoth to be successful.

 

The main driver was shipping costs. West to East is expensive as beer competes with space with produce in refrigerated trucks. East to West is cheap as the trucks are looking for loads so they don't run empty. I was told that the shipping savings was enough to pay for the brewery in a handful of years.

 

I live about 50 miles NW of Chicago. I have not seen SN seasonals in a couple of years, Bigfoot or Narwhal.
We still get Pale Ale, Torpedo, a couple variety packs and that crazy/hazy crap.