Is this the next and final push?

“Has the Craft Beer Revolution succeeded?” As long as I can go to my local beer distributor and I can buy beers from Russian River, Firestone Walker, Bell’s, Founders, Victory, Sly Fox, etc. then I personally declare that the Craft Beer Revolution has succeeded. I still think there is growth for Craft Brewing in the near future; I believe that craft brewing being 10% of the US beer market (as measured by volume) is just a few years (3-5?) away. I do not think that craft beer will ever be a majority of the beer market in my lifetime; the majority of US (and the world) beer drinkers prefer beers that are light in color and light in taste.

Cheers!

 

Succeeded at what? Was the goal of the movement ever really market dominance? And it's actually not super likely that craft beer really lead the way here, you could argue that Whole Foods (and the general trend toward organics) have more to do with the current desire for expensive-but-better products of all kinds, beer included.

Fairly, but making predictions is hard, especially about the future.

EDIT: I thought this was interesting, published today: http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox...culture_and_negative_productivity_shocks.html

There are some inherent advantages to big-beer-style production, and since it's likely that the majority of people are going to be cost-constrainted for the foreseeable future, craft will never be able to dominate outside the sphere of well-off professionals.

 

It will have succeeded when I can walk into any local rinky-dink pizza joint, burger place, sandwich shop, etc. and have the confidence that I will be able to have a quality choice of beers with which to accompany my food. It's probably already like that in some markets (like Portland), but the rest have still have a ways to go.

 

There will be push and pull. Your sons and daughters might drink shitty beer to piss you off, or to be ironic, or they might follow suit and be craft beer fans. Who knows, maybe they won't drink because you're such an idiot when you're drunk.

I have a hard time believing that homogeneity will gain the stronghold it once had. I think the amount of information humanity shares these days would be prohibitive of such an occurrence.

On top of all that, we have seen the US go from 1700 breweries, to a handful, and back to 2000 or so within the scope of 100 years. That is a mere tick of the clock with respect to human history. Think about how different beer is now than it probably was 300 or 600 years ago. Now imagine that much difference projected 300 or 600 years into the future. Who knows what the beer world will look like.

 

I was canoeing in the Ozarks a while back and we pulled over for lunch at a gravel bar frequented by 4 wheelers and such. Among the detritus around the fire ring, with the BMC cans and general trash, I spied a Boulevard beer cap.

The Craft Beer Revolution has succeeded.

 

Well, I'm not personally rooting for the demise of BMC. Yes, I know they are "the man", but I can't help but also think about how they--at least in the case of Bud and Miller--are one of the last sources of good working class, union jobs in this country. They feed and clothe a lot more people than Russian River does.

However, as a "non-descript" civil servant myself, I try to buy locally to keep the money that I'm paid by the people of my area within the area, so I think it's great that more people now have the chance to buy locally and support the local economy.

Where it's going though, I dunno. However, I'll gaze into my crystal ball and tell you what I see: more people are going to get into craft, and more nano and microbreweries will open. Some will succeed, many will fail, however. Craft beer's share of the market will top off and the scene will get more competitive. The one big happy family spirit will die off as brewers begin to compete for customers in a scene with very little brand loyalty. They are businesses, after all, and need to turn a profit or at least break even if they want to stay in production.

Meanwhile, BMC will continue to offer more "crafty" selections, but will also be able to offer a more consistent, less expensive, and better distributed product. They'll also buy more craft breweries. The purists will, of course, have nothing to do with these beers, but the more casual beer drinker who wants more interesting beers but to drink but isn't going to go out of his/her way to seek certain beers out or spend a small fortune will gladly buy these beers.

Things that start out as movements, eventually become businesses, and, then, eventually, rackets. I think craft beer will continue to grow for a little while but I don't think we are headed for beer utopia.

 

MURICA!!!

 

I've lived in Seattle for 20 years now and, other than a server rattling off the beer list in a generic chain restaurant (which usually also includes at least a few local "craft" offerings), I don't think anyone has ever offered me a Bud, Coors, Miller, or similar product. Certainly never in a social setting; that would be tantamount to serving slices of Velveeta on the cheese plate. Interpret that however you want.

 

IIRC, craft breweries have more employees per bbl (I cant find these numbers in the couple of minutes I was looking for them, but it makes sense, economy of scale and etc).

So, if BMC was replaced with enough craft breweries to replace the quantity, employment would go up.

 

Having recently turned 21, I can say that a lot of new drinkers I know won't go near the BMC stuff. Aside from frat bros and girls that drink whatever is handed to them, a lot of people in college now drink craft beer. And not just intro stuff, but big DIPAs and RISs and imperial whatevers. Of course, not everyone has good taste, but I think I can speak for the 19-25 year old demographic and say that a solid 20-40% of us prefer craft over the BMC.

I went to a Tiger's game earlier this month and someone I had barely even met said "who the hell wants to drink diet beer" as she looked over the beer menu trying to locate the craft options and the dude in front of us started his second pint of miller lite.

Maybe the effect of all this doesn't mean that the best craft beer will always be on tap at every restaurant, but that does mean that a large number of up-and-coming adults are preferring beer with flavor and body rather than just a bunch of swill to get you drunk fast. Of course, this does not account for everyone, or even every beer: I have a good friend who will sip on a DIPA or three and then pound 10 Bud Light Limes. Who really cares though? He values local stuff and national craft stuff, but everyone has their "I am drunk and want to keep drinking, so why drink the good stuff" beer.

 

Ya baby, we've come a looong way! In my neck o the woods (North West edge of the continent) You would be hard pressed to find a restaurant without at least one or two decent craft beers available. One of the most popular bars in town (Newport Or.) only has one tap among many for AAL (And today I went in there and it was Full Sail Session!) Do we have a ways to go still? Hell yes! I still haven't had this year's Hoptimum, I swear we are the dumping ground for Bigfoot, not that that is a bad thing but c'mon. New breweries are getting their footing right all over. Drinking local is getting better and better. And now you can homebrew in all 50 states!

 

This is an interesting point, and one that I think deserves more discussion. I don't have any data at my disposal, but I'd be curious to know how many people the top 3 or 5 breweries employ compared to the bottom 2,400 or so. Let's say the average brewery employs 20 people (a number I just pulled completely out of my ass). That's 48,000 jobs, and doesn't include the distributors, bottle shops, and other jobs that directly depend on a diverse and expanding beer universe. Union or not, I'd argue that a more stable job market consists of many small local breweries of varying sizes across the country vs. a few behemoths that can be (and have been) bought by some large multinational corporation based in a foreign country. Hopefully someone can come along and provide some concrete numbers on the employment side of this issue.

 

You have a point; other jobs in the new breweries would replace the ones lost at BMC, but would they be as good of jobs? Wages, health and dental, retirement, vacation time, etc.? That one I'm not sure about, especially in smaller scale operations that probably have lower profit margins.

 

U.S. "craft" still seems to me to be fully entrenched in its teenage rebellion stage. BMC and its basic product – pale lager – remain the bogeymen against which "craft" typically measures itself in community, philosophy, and aesthetic. When U.S. "craft" finally begins to grow up – and there are some signs this is beginning to happen – then perhaps the philosophy of many of its adherents will change from bigger/darker/hoppier/more-flavor-regardless-of-its-provenance/experimental/rarer is better to the understanding that well-crafted beer – in any and all of its forms – can and should be a drink of the masses. Then and only then, IMO, will U.S. "craft" finally emerge from the online forums, kitchen counters, and exclusive living room "tastings" to find wider acceptance among the general public…where it no longer feels the need to fear being mistaken for a "macro" because it has mastered all styles, and where any revolution worth the paper/internet message board it's written on must take place.

 

Now I'm curious, and will have to do some research. I can tell you though, I think your estimate of 20 people is a little high. A lot of nano and even some micros are just 1 or 2 guy operations. There is a brewery in my state that, last I checked, was still completely manned by it's three founders. It's small, but not tiny, and has some decent distribution.

Again, I'd say that a person is probably better off working for Bud or Miller than the average smaller brewer, at least in terms of wages and benefits. I don't know that to be true, but that's my guess. Even Coors is, by all accounts that I've seen and heard, still a pretty good employer to work for. So yes, just in terms of jobs numbers, 2,000 people working at 1 brewery is no better than 2,000 people working at 100 different breweries, but people don't just need jobs, they need good jobs that they can live on and still have a little disposable income to spend and support the economy with, and I'm just not sure that the micros, with their higher relative overhead costs, can provide these.

 

According to some brewery officials in the Brewers Association:

Of course, among those "small brewers'" jobs are many part-time, less-than-minimum waitstaff/bartender jobs in brewpubs - jobs that the DoL doesn't consider "brewing industry" jobs.

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sorry, but it *was* tl;dr.

however, the craft beer revolution has totally succeeded. things have been good for awhile now, and the selection has never been better. prices are creeping up, but they're outstripped by quality. you have people like sierra nevada continually hitting home runs and charging value prices for it too, kind of anchoring (pun intended) value close to where it ought to be.

(skims your post a bit more)

yeah, you can find good craft almost everywhere. mediocre bars are starting to at least get a couple hardcore good options, etc.

 

I have no reason to disagree with anything you say, and as I said before I'd be really interested to see some good numbers on this. Maybe jesskidden will show up with his file folder of statistics. [EDIT: and here he is now ]

At the end of the day I think there's plenty of room for everyone at the table. And I think the larger "craft" breweries like Stone and Sierra Nevada probably provide wages and benefits that can compete with any brewery in America. But again, I have no basis in that other than the fact that they've been around for a long time and are obviously doing something right. I agree that a lot of really tiny operations don't offer a very sustainable model unless they manage to grow out of infancy.

 

I think in terms of pushing the limits of what craft beer can be we may have reached the limit. By this I mean there's only so many hop varieties, barrel aging, yeast strains...etc. that can be used. The shock value of these "extreme" beers may be wearing off.

I believe the next logical step is a return to producing more basic, lower alcohol beers. Pilsners, bitters, traditional lower abv saisons, Munich Helles....etc. This trend may have already started.