Proprietor's experience

Lol, right. That's why RS members left in droves this year. People sick of paying $30 - $40 per 750 for one note sugar bombs that aren't as drinkable or complex as a $22 4-pack of BCBS not to mention their average sour lineup that costs the same as Cantillon shipped direct from Belgium.

 

I'm sure you're trying to be funny in some fashion, but... Not only are people not sick of paying $30-$40 for "one note sugar bombs", they're willing to pay much more than that as evidenced by prices on eBay before the shutdown, and prices on other sites currently. Furthermore, those sugar bombs still move in large numbers across the ISO/FT forum on this site. As far as the sours that cost the same as Cantillon, I'm not aware of what those cost. But I do know that Bruery sours were all $15.99 for me after discount. I had no idea Cantillon from Belgium was so cheap. Last time I checked, it cost me nearly 75 Euros just to have 12 bottles shipped here from Belgium. Guess you learn something new every day.

 

look at the spread between GI retail price and * prices and the same with the Bruery. There is a huge difference.

for instance bottles of 2012 Black Tuesday sell for about $60 on MBC. That's 2x retail price, and they have been aged for a year.

bottles of Cherry Rye (released around the same time as 2012 BT) cost $20-$25 new, and now sell for $95-$100 on MBC. or about 4x their retail price.

here is a listing for limited Bruery sours, the collection of which sold for $25/bottle.

I haven't seen Proprieters on MBC but my guess is it could sell for over $100, or 4x it's retail price, and it was just released a month ago

 

Yeah...I'd like to pay less for my beer. No doubt. But that's just not the direction we're headed in. Demand still far surpasses supply on a lot of craft brews. Prices are going to continue to rise It will continue.

 

oddly, you largely have Budweiser to thank for the rising prices. After they sold a few years ago, their prices for their key brands (Bud, Bud Light) rose and continue to rise as their new parent thought they had been charging too little. these changes made it possible for craft makers to charge more - there is only so much more a Sam Adams or a Harpoon can charge over what Bud costs before before people will just say 'screw it' and buy Bud. That spread can't be too big. Similarly, real premium craft brands can only charge so much over Sam Adams/Harpoon so price room for Sam is great for your local premium microbrewer. Bud and Bud Light basically dictate pricing for everyone else.

 

You gotta be a little more specific here with regard to who (which consumer) you refer to as referencing BMC prices, as I haven't looked at the price of BMC beers in a very long time, and I doubt I am alone.

 

Bruery beers fall pretty close in line with everyone else, and that's before the discount. RR 375ml sours are 12, which is essentially more expensive than bruery. People gawk at the high number but you are buying 750's.

 

this is from a friend of mine who is a big investor in inbev and also knows the team at Sam really well. basically the legacy team at Bud was fat and happy before inbev took them over. they didn't really feel the need to push aggressive pricing but inbev as the acquirer saw a lot more room for profit.

 

Left in droves? What's your source on this?

Sure, the Bruery makes sweet beers, but it's not like BCBS or BCBBW are icons of appropriate attenuation; both are very sweet and BCBBW is definitely one-note-y.

 

Just heard through a friend that proprietors is available in stores out side of IL. Bottles should be plentiful. Not sure if this is new news, but it was news to me as I see people shelling an arm and a leg for it and I figured it was Chicago release only...

 

What seldom seems to get recognized in these discussions is the staggering number of new craft breweries that have opened in the last few years (and continue to open), and how quickly they're raising their game. At one time BCBS was the only barrel-aged stout out there, and it'll always command at least a little bit of a premium price because of its reputation and history, but in terms of quality, a surprising number of other breweries are nipping at Goose Island's heels.

Prices won't continue to rise indefinitely because there are enough talented new brewers now coming into their own (not to mention enough talented veteran brewers ramping up capacity) to begin to drive prices down again via competition. Unless the market expands significantly, I would not be at all surprised to see The Bruery et al start to drop their prices within five years.

To those who keep referring to wine pricing when discussing the craft beer market: Don't forget that wine production and craft beer production are fundamentally different, in that wine quality is heavily dependent on climate. A very bad streak of weather can depress the output of the entire Napa region for a whole year, in a way that (fortunately) has no parallel for GI/FW/FFF/etc.

Bottom line: it's a great time to be a craft beer fan, and it's going to get even better.

 

there aren't enough profits in the industry for prices to fall significantly due to nano and microbrewery competition. these guys can be profitable but will be very hard for any of them to gain enough scale so that they are cutting prices enough to drive an overall trend

 

What other new breweries are doing BA stouts to a similar scale (numbers) as goose island?

Also, to reinforce your point about wine, wine prices rise with better vintages (07,09)as a recent example) but will not fall with 2 of the worst vintages ever (10 and 11) and will rise exponentially with two of the best ever (12 and 13).
We are lucky with beer.

 

Is mbc your guide for bottle value?

 

well, a couple things

1) I noted that part of the reason why Proprieters is trading so relatively high is that GI set a price for it that comes nowhere close to meeting what it could sell for per actual market demand. I absolutely think this is true. People buy Black Tuesday at $30 every year, Proprieters would have sold for $50+ easy. They probably could have priced it at $75 and it would have sold out within weeks if not days if not 1 day. What most people are asking for in trade, I think, reflects the true demand for it and not the retail price they paid (I don't live in Chicago, I didn't buy any, I did trade for 1 bottle I'm opening tonight so I have no dog in this fight)

2) MBC is not a guide for how I trade, but it certainly is a guide for free market value, sure. eBay is an amazing site b/c it lets the free market decide what something is actually worth. we don't have that with beer but MBC is the closest I know of.

 

Bcbs is an interesting phenomenon. Even though there's a shit ton of it made (2500 total barrels for all, variants included), there's this perception that they're rare especially among folks who are new to the game. Did you see the post where the guy talks of the "legend" of bcbs? There's so much mystique for a beer that's made in such large amounts. There also seems to be an increasing number of people who subscribe to the free market value philosophy of trading and look to get as much as they can from the beers they hold.

It's a great time for beer, but shitty time for trading.

 

My trading partner sent me one. I thought it was very good, but not the best out of all of them. I though Backyard Rye, Coffee, and the BW were better. Definitely not worth trading an arm and a leg for.

 

BCBS is good. Proprietors is good. I was able to trade a couple of Props at basically $4$. It was great to be able to make trades that made both sides happy. It's hard to hear how I allegedly got something over on someone and how I overvalued this delicious beer because I got face value for it. Now that I have had some to drink with friends, and I don't have any left to trade, I feel that bit of unfortunate human nature that makes me want to devalue other people's Proprietor's. Hmm, I wonder if that says something about the beer or something about me and those of whom also feel this way...
Anyways, I hope that those of whom I traded to enjoyed them as much or even more than I did.

 

i must have missed that....

 

quite a few salient points made here. another i'd add, is unlike wine, beer doesn't typically get better with age (only a handful of styles age well). most and including ALL BCBS variants due to the barrel aging process, are just getting oxidized the longer you sit on them = they are at their intended peak relatively soon after bottling.

wine prices get amped up due to speculation that in 10 years a reasonable bottle will be great (and more sought after), and less available.