MN top two breweries (in BBL), and what about #3?

I don't understand why growth only shows success. Schell's has been successful for a long time and I would suspect that they have very little debt. Summit and Surly have both recently gone through expansions to fuel their growth. I highly doubt they've paid off all of that equipment already which probably has interest tacked onto it.

Schell's has been in this business for a long time, I think they are doing just fine.

 

The inside joke with my beer-lovin' friends is that August Schell* plans to intentionally scuttle production of their year-round, boring lagers because the profit margin on hand-bottled 750s is so much sweeter.

But seriously, folks. Schell will do okay even as they are eclipsed as the state's largest brewery in coming years.
Check this link and the others, below (and mind you: these figures are all self-reported.)

2014:
1. August Schell 134,500 Barrels.
2. Summit Brewing 132,870 Barrels. A little more than that including Finnegans.
3. Third Street Brewhouse (Cold Spring Brewing Co.) Upwards of 90,000 Barrels.
4. Surly Brewing. Should be close to 60,000 Barrels between 2014 and 2015.
5. (tie) Lift Bridge. 10,000 Barrels.
5. (tie) Finnegans. Approximately* 10,000 Barrels.
7. Fulton Brewing 8,500 Barrels.
8. Indeed Brewing. 6,000 Barrels.

*2013:
1. August Schell 132,000 Barrels.
2. Summit Brewing 122,517 Barrels. A little more than that including Finnegans -- see above.
3. Third Street Brewhouse (Cold Spring Brewing Co.) 86,000 Barrels -- 100,000+ w/ contracts.
4. Surly Brewing 32,000 Barrels.
5. Fulton Brewing 8,500 Barrels.

Compare the above with this older list. Lift Bridge and Indeed should be right behind Fulton.

Bryn Mawr plans to be among the top five right away, and some of those in that under 10,000 range will grow, so that by the end of 2015 there should be about five or six Minnesota breweries hovering just under the old "Microbrewery" threshold of 15,000 Barrels/year. By the end of 2016 that bunch will grow to include Finnegans and Black Stack.

 

Schell's has been moving upmarket, so it might have seen substantial revenue gains on the same number of barrels. If Schell's is selling less Deer Brand but more Stag Series, I bet they're happy.

Given that the new brewery opened in December 2014 after Surly initially targeted a 2013 opening, Surly was bound to miss its production projections. Surly's capacity is now over 80,000 BBL per year; when they will hit capacity I have no idea. If Surly does hit capacity and Schell's stays steady, I wouldn't be surprised if Surly passes Schell's in revenue (if only because Grain Belt is so plentiful and cheap).

Cold Spring / Third Street's capacity is 140,000 BBL per year, and I believe they're running close to it (I would have thought closer than what @Chaz shows), although a lot of that is contract brewing (and I don't recall how the Brewers Association counts that), and I assume Cold Spring does not meet even the Brewers Association's expanded definition of a craft brewery.

Fulton has some serious capacity in its new space, as does Insight. Neither is going to make the top 50 list any time soon (heck, Insight doesn't even package yet), but both should see large growth over the next few years.

 

Kind of off topic, so sorry, but what is the BBL limit before a brewery can no longer sell growlers? Anyone know if any of the liquor bills have purposed to raise the limit?

Would really hate to lose the ability to fill growlers at some of the breweries from Chaz's data.

 

Quick on the Google, here's what I found:

http://savethegrowler.org/save-the-growler-faqs/

TL;DR version: looks to be 3,500 barrels of which only 500 can be used towards growler sales.

 

Bryn Mawr saying that they will immediately shoot for top 5 (or whatever) is typically a big red flag in this business as well as many others. It just does not happen that way, at least without tremendous direct and indirect costs. You have to build brand equity. You don't just flip a switch.

 

I thought the limit was raised from 3,500 to 20,000 in summer 2013. Anyone?

 

Considering lift bridge is at 10,000 and still selling growlers. 20,000 makes more sense than 3,500.

I would still like to see that upped or removed. Keep the growler limit if that is what it takes not to get peoples panties in a bunch.

 

Damn you! Look what you made me go do:

https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/?id=340A.301

Apologies for the bad Google skills but now I want one back for having to go read through all that legalese!

 

Conservativism has served schells well over the past century and a half so they may be content with status quo rather than take on debt to grow. Between the the loyalty they have in south central MN and the loyal bar of grain belt fans they probably have the most stable/loyal customer base in the state. The only thing that causes me to doubt the strength of their position is the fact that they have had trouble establishing some of their more recent releases (Arminius, emerald rye)

 

Great thoughts here...I really think the lack of being able to establish some of their more recent releases has to do with marketing/distributor issues more than anything. I still can't get Schell Hefe in the Bemidji area. I'm certainly no expert on these things but I would want to stenghthen distributor relations so they pump out their product when it is available and promote it as well at local bars, etc throughout the state....may ways to do that..

 

Since Summit makes Finnegans does that make them #1?

Surly has 2 more fermenters on order so 2016 is gonna be huge for them since it will also include full years in Chicago, Iowa and Wisconsin.

Fulton should be somewhere between 25K-30K this year.

 

When looking at these lists, what has caused the increase or decrease in the amount of beer produced. Just because Schell's may have "zero" growth, does that mean they are doing poorly? They are in 7 states and focus on traditional Germany style beers (German Craft Beer), they are not going to do an IPA. Summit is in 18 states and how much of their growth is from Saga (introduced in the summer of 2013) or expansion into Arkansas?

Take a look at the fastest growing breweries, most if not all have grown by opening new markets. You can argue this is good or bad, depending on what side of the fence you are on. From talking to a few of the managers of the stores I frequent, most of the beer that is new to our state tends to sit there after the initial roll-out unless there is some hype behind it.

All growth is not the same. Take a look at St Arnold and Green Flash - both produce about the same in barrels- - 65,000 and the same growth 15%. St Arnold is in 4 states, Green Flash is in 46. I would think that St Arnold will be much more sustainable as the COULD move to new markets, Green Flash, is already everywhere. New Glarus, however is amazing - 11% growth 165,000 BBLs...and ONE state.

Prediction, next year Minhas will be in double-digits for growth (counting contracts) They will brew beer for Costco/Kirkland...48 pack of beer will cost $22. Grab some hot dogs and a 36 pack of TP and you will be good for the day.

 

I think its mainly because in the market that we're in for beer right now, you have to really screw something up to not be increasing your sales volume. So if you have capacity and you aren't filling it with selling more beer, that's a signal that something is wrong with your brands and the way people are looking at your beer.

Completely different though for breweries that are at capacity and don't want to expand. That's still a little weird, but that's a conscious business decision as opposed to a signal from the market.