Lately, it seems like I have had a rather high percentage of trades falling through before shipping dates are agreed to. I think that the deal is hammered out, and that we are in mutual agreement, and then communication just falls apart. As added background, I try to trade $4$ or rarity for rarity. In terms of that, I do think I inaccurately value beers, and I'm not sure how to correct that. So, here is the question: what can I do to get more of my trades through to the actual shipping stage? Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
Two things: develop good trading partners & not much. The number of contacts I make that don't result in a trade, even after some discussion, has risen over the past year or so, I have no idea why. Seems like we either just can't agree on what the other wants (which is fairly rare, unless I don't have a whale the other person is looking for), or the other person just disappears mid-conversation. That seems to be happening more. Especially when someone stops responding to messages, I always figure I'm better off not dealing with people who suck at communicating or can't be bothered to just say "nothankyou." I'd say it's fairly common. Don't sweat it.
How do you inaccurately value beers? Do you usually think your shelf whales are worth more than the other traders beer?
Getting the best deal is all the rage right now. $4$ does not look so good when there is an auction going on.
No, not at all. Maybe some of it is luck, timing, and a crapshoot. Case in point: Jolly Pumpkin Cinco Anos. With a fairly low bottle count (1200), I thought I could potentially land a Cantillon bottle or maybe an HF bottle with a similar bottle count. So far, I have been wrong, as I inaccurately valued the beer. And this is exactly what I am looking for. I've made a good trading partner here or there, but man, it seems they are getting few and far between.
Mordor's giving you the best advice. Decide what you have that you're willing to part with. Decide what you want that isn't way out of the league, then pick a few other things that you'd want as well. Being flexible on $ or rarity and being open to more than one specific bottle usually gets the job done for me. I personally have no problem trading brewery only beers for shelf beers that I can't get locally. It gets said over and over, but as long as you're happy with what is coming your way and aren't going to regret what you sent out then there isn't anything to worry about. Its just beer and you don't have to win (not trying to imply that you were treating it that way).
i'm not going to check your post history to try to put the pieces together, but my guess is that you're doing all "cold call" ISO:FT stuff and trying to hammer out "high value" deals. if you're going to play that game, expect lots of deals to fall through. i'm not even saying this is a bad practice (as 100% of someone's trading it is, but if you have a beer that "trades high," and you want some other rare beer, obviously there's nothing "anti-community" about trying to make those trades... but then again, you want your feet to already be pretty wet just to avoid fucking yourself over). as far as "inaccurate valuing," what you're really thinking inaccurately about is trading and value itself (this isn't conjecture based on imagined trades, but a response to your jolly pumpkin post). just because you didn't get any bites for cinco años with "cantillon" (did you mean like 100% gueuze? or rarer things?) doesn't mean that the things you asked for are "higher value." it would mean that if you were the only person anyone trades with. however, the "market" is not that simple. could be that your ISO just wasn't seen by the right people. maybe everyone who would trade what you wanted already grabbed some cinco años (ISO:FT was flooded with that beer for a few days). you don't want to jump to conclusions about principles or generalities or whatever, at least not from very few instances. offer what you'll part with for what you want. value is subjective in beer trading; it is not a shared measurement that everyone partakes in and agrees upon. anyone who gives you the impression that it is is either being exploited by someone else, or trying to exploit you. just be reasonable about value (ie if you and 10,000 other people put in no effort to get a beer, don't expect it to trade for something 100 people waited in line for 4 hours to buy), and things will work out. and yeah, these days especially, it's going to pay off better if you just trade around with people and establish relationships for unpredictable future (mutual!) benefit. there's just too many noobs, speculators, adrenalin-fueled greedheads (my father loves that word, 'greedhead'), etc. they may be go-getters trying to take the initiative, but in the end they're playing a risky game in a hobby that, in the grand scheme of things, they probably started taking too seriously several steps ago. edit: by the way, the point here isn't to bash the "noobs, speculators, and adrenalin-fueled greedheads," the point is to emphasize that that community of traders is, in the long run, not going to reward you with great beer and an enjoyable hobby. they're going to write dramatic bad trader threads, argue about ebay, put shit on ebay, throw their dicks around in "hard negotiations," and other bullshit that's just bad news all around. it's just not a sustainable way of operating, and if all you do is try to trade limited releases with strangers, my guess is that you'll end up often dealing with such traders. edit2: p.s. this is a pretty pompous post, i know, but i'll also point out that my trades never fall through, and both sides are always happy (except that trade with cadaugherty where i extra'd him a blaecorn unidragon without having tasted it, only to find later that 1) it was in his distro area, and 2) it tastes like shit. at least he got a sebago barleywine. i am forever burned by that trade. fucking clown shoes. his end to me was much more satisfying; zombie dust extras, awesome) edit3: kudos to anyone who read this whole post. it is a classic example of "i'll write that much, but i would never in a million years read that much." i can't tell you if having read the whole thing indicates that you will have more or less trades fall through though. patience is a virtue i guess.
Easy. Step your game up, offer more, and put forth a sweet deal that knocks the other guy's socks off.
Meh, the whole thing with $4$ is a joke. I tried to trade a beer that was going for $60 on ebay for a hand full of literally off the shelf west coast beers. The folks were like but it only retails for 12.50, and these off the shelf beers that we can get with no trouble at all are $24, you have to up the value. What ever, I took the Bramble and BCBS and stuck them in the cellar.
Just so I'm clear...you wanted $60 worth of locals because your beers were going for $60 on ebay? Is that what you're saying?
I am going to assume his post was sarcastic... if not then I dont see him making many trades in the future
I would like to speak on behalf of the trading forum and tell you to get the fuck out of here with your ebay shelf whales.
Great advice from all. Greatly appreciated. I also read the whole thing. Very well-thought, well-written, and not pompous at all. You tell it like you see it, and I respect that. Cheers, indeed.
My reading comprehension is poor in general but I think he was saying he wanted to trade $12 in limited release beers for $24 of off the shelf beers...
It happens. Don't read too much into it. I've had a handful of talks break down where the other party simply stops responding. Once in a while I get the satisfaction of returning the favor (i.e. they'll contact me for another trade later, and I don't bother responding). On the bright side: at least you know up front that the other person is poor in communicating, so you wouldn't want to deal with them anyway.
