Bourbon County Coffee 2015 - Gusher?

Completely depends on:

• If they are going to beat the street forecast this quarter (thus have some wiggle room in budgets)
• See risk to a key brand
• Have growth strategies that focus on craft beer

If you read their quarterly investor reports they make big noises about growth in 'above premium' which is where they put their craft portfolio (Page 11) and they make a point of the growth in Goose Island (they mention the IPA, but it is a cornerstone brand).

This is a key driver of long term value for the company, so they aren't going to piss that away. When your core products are in a shrinking market (all the macro's they own) you don't fuck with the growth driver... Not if you want to keep your job at least.

 

I don't know that BC is a key driver of long term value. I think the dollars involved with BC are way too small to be considered a driver of value. I see BC as a way for them to diversify or provide a bit of a niche product. I still don't think they will avoid doing the right thing, as it will impact the investment they've made and the profitability going forward of that niche.

 

Growth = value. As a company if you aren't growing you are dying, so GI and all their other niche brands add up to that growth. They need these brands long term to continue to be successful. Unless we all quit drinking craft and go back to bud that is!

 

I just think that those of us drinking craft aren't that meaningful long term to the big boys. As mentioned before, I think it's more about diversification or hedging their bets. I don't think BC isn't going to make or break InBev. Again, I'm in the same boat as you, though, in that I think they'll do the right thing. They didn't buy the brand to mess it up...they want to make money, and messing it up doesn't make money.

 

This is correct to a point. Market share for the big boys is dropping considerably and hence the reason for buying craft brewers, you need to make up the sales and profit somewhere.

With that being said, BCBCS sales are a rounding error for InBev. The risk is very mitigated by the actual percent of bottles that are still available AND would be returned. Bottom line, if they care about the customer and want to protect the brand they will do what's right. This would not cost them a lot of money.

 

Agreed - not BC alone, but I bet they can see that they need to have 20 or 30 smaller brands growing at 50% per year to offset the fact that the macro market is shrinking - Goose Island is the flagship for that, so I think (just my opinion) they will be focused on making sure that brand is the poster child for success.

Agreed, BCBCS is rounding error, but they don't want every article about Goose Island for the next year to reference a piss poor response to their crown jewel beer having a problem. It isn't about the Bourbon County brand per se, but more the potential downside risk of negative press on the whole GI brand. If I was in charge, I would want those articles talking about the great job I did making it right to my die hard fans...

 

That is why in my opinion they will do what's right. This will not cost them much money at all and the bad press isn't worth it. If you were talking 10M then they would have a choice to make and weigh the risks between $'s and damage. The $'s are so small here it's just not worth not doing the right thing. Then again, who knows. All we can do is wait and see.

 

Agreed - low cost, potential high risk if you don't - feels like a no-brainer to me.

 

Many coffees from Nicaragua and Colombia have a fruity sour finish. When I first tried that type of coffee it was off putting at first. I'm in love with it now. I definitely noticed that finish in this year's BCBCS and it was delicious. But I can see how people who are expecting a dark roasty coffee from the previous years would feel like something is off this year.

 

Agreed, but that would totally throw off the taste profile of this beer from past years, and if that was the case, some of the beans imparted that flavor, then that was a bozo no no. But that doesn't explain the carbonation issue, so this was a thought that I originally had but discounted. Something went wrong somewhere, and it not only happened in the coffee, but also the barley wine, so it is pointing to a bigger issue.

 

I agree that something is wrong this year but I also think that many people are reporting infection just because they are not familiar with the coffee used this year.

 

This thread is a never ending cycle.

 

Judging by what folks have been reporting, I believe the beans (or some other infection carrying thing) imparted a whole lot more than a subtle sour fruity end of sip. Adding flavor additions is a crap shoot, and sometimes brewers roll snake eyes.

I think we all need to get past the possibility that the folks reporting gushers and cherry lactic sour impossible to drink flavors are confusing this with a subtle tart note from the coffee. The fact that some folks report gushers, others don't, is enough to broadcast loud and clear something is really really wrong.

 

Sure something can be and probably is wrong. But does that mean that all the folks claiming off flavors have one of the infected bottles?

 

Honestly it could mean that, yes, as the infection always seems to be more and less advanced in different bottles every time this happens. In the end that isn't something to worry about when it is obvious there is an infection problem.

In the case of one or two folks not being familiar with a beer that normally has high carb. and tart sharp taste, and there are no, or few, other accounts of a similar nature, than I think it is something to consider. That is hardly the case here.

 

Fair, it is a little annoying, but can we then insta-ban anyone who is posting:

• Time codes and referring to them as batch numbers (gears are officially being ground...)
• Statement theirs was infected with absolutely no details on flavor / carb / experience
• Rants against AB InBev and their evil craft beer destroying empire
• Anyone who say's theirs is infected but hasn't bothered to call GI and tell them

There is a ton of bullshit on this thread; talking about fruity coffee and musing if that is what some people are perceiving is the least of it...

 

And this Black Friday when the circus rolls into town, last years infected bottles will be forgotten, the hype will boil over, people will camp out over night and buy as much BC as they can.

 

So you think that anyone saying they have an infected beer knows exactly what an infected beer looks/tastes like and that all the reports are correct?

From my perspective, the real issue in this thread is not whether or not there is an infection, that seems to be the case. The real issue is how widespread that infection is and how it happens that some report having infected beers and others report no problem, i.e., was the infection in the barrels, the lines, the bottles, did it affect all beers, only some batches, only some bottles, etc.